Estimated Cap Space: Around $20 million

Unrestricted Free Agents (17): Mark Anderson, Deion Branch, Andre Carter, Dan Connolly, Shaun Ellis, Kevin Faulk, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Gary Guyton, James Ihedigbo, Nate Jones, Dan Koppen, Niko Koutouvides, Antwaun Molden, Matt Slater, Gerard Warren, Wes Welker, Tracy White

Restricted Free Agents (2): Brian Hoyer, Bret Lockett Undrafted out of Michigan State in 2009, Hoyer has spent the last three seasons as Tom Brady’s understudy. Though Ryan Mallett was added in the third round of the 2011 NFL Draft, the Patriots are unlikely to let Hoyer get away for nothing. A “first round” tender worth $2.742 million in non-guaranteed base salary would not be surprising as the Patriots listen to trade offers.

Franchise Tag Candidate: Wes Welker led the NFL in receptions (122), ranked second in receiving yards (1,569) and ranked third in receiving DYAR (475) in 2011. Though he’s on the wrong side of 30, it would be a stunning development if the Patriots allowed Welker to test the free agent market when using the franchise tag between February 20 and March 5 would cost a projected $9.5 million to retain negotiating rights through the off-season.

Potential Cap Casualties/Restructures: Cap space is not a pressing issue for the Patriots, but if the need were to arise to clear additional cap space -– perhaps to make a run at Mario Williams to improve the pass rush or Brandon Lloyd to give the offense a downfield receiving threat –- space could be found by restructuring the contract of Tom Brady, who is scheduled to receive $5.75 million in base salary and a $6 million roster bonus. Brady’s 2012 cap number is $15.2 million next season, which could be reduced by $4 million if his roster bonus, which has already been deferred to February 15, 2013, were converted to a signing bonus and prorated over the remaining three seasons. The Patriots could reduce Brady’s cap number even further, to as low as $6.54 million, by reducing his base salary to the league minimum ($925,000) and converting the remaining base salary and roster bonus into a signing bonus prorated over five seasons (tacking two seasons onto his contract). $1.4 million in additional cap space could be found by releasing Chad Ochocinco, who is due a $3 million base salary.

You have to figure ultimately the Patriots will use their franchise tag on Wes Welker,” Schefter said. “The franchise tag would be for $9.4 million. They’ve been talking about getting a long-term deal, the question is can they get something done. Wes Welker is going to want to be paid like one of the top wide receivers in the game. That’s going to be a big number … If they can’t get something done, then the Patriots will wind up using the tag in all probability.

Great stuff in here with Chatham talking about the Patriots defensive personnel.

Best Plays Of The 2012 Season (by xXxNFLVidzxXx)

Just a friendly highlight video reminder, Tom Brady is still actually pretty good at football.

McCourty had stuggles in seeing the ball more than anything this season. His timing of getting his head around was off and this is a function of teams having a season of film to break down on him. I would look to see a marked improvement in this next season as this is a reps issue. The other critical issue is his safety continuity. Athletically he was just fine and 99% of his technique was there all season, he just couldn’t quite put it all together. Without good safety play with him, he was frequently stranded in no man’s land and looking out of position because his safeties were either out of position or too slow to help him out. For the importance of safety-corner interaction look at how much better the secondary as a whole played when McCourty was moved to safety where he played quite well. Both corners improved when he moved there.

Interesting stuff from Jay Shields over on a thread at PatsFans. I hope he’s right…

Can someone break down McCourty’s struggles last year? - New England Patriots Forums - PatsFans.com Patriots Fan Messageboard

ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay is holding a conference call today and he shared his insight as to some of the “value” areas that could be there for the Patriots late in the first round (27th and 31st).

“I look at the Patriots, and if they were to stay home and use these two picks, I think they have a great opportunity to get some players at the positions they continue to need – that’s in the secondary, pass rusher and also wide receiver,” McShay said.

25 Patriots thoughts to kick off the off-season

We’ve shifted fully into off-season mode here at the Ministry of PatsPropaganda, and we’ve begun with thinking long and hard about the current Patriots personnel and where the biggest areas of need really are.

As evidenced in Michael Holley’s War Room the Patriots evaluate their off-season acquisitions specifically against the current Patriots roster and we try to do the same thing here.

Here are some general thoughts as we get going on our Free Agency and Draft research, specific to the Patriots.

  1. In the great debate of 4-3 or 3-4 I expect that the Patriots will try to round out their personnel to fit the 3-4 a little better. That doesn’t mean we’ve necessarily seen the end of the 4-3, but I expect that the Pats will go back to depending on the 3-4 against heavy run teams as they’ve done in the past.
  2. Therefore my early feeling is that the defensive line, especially a potential 3-4 defensive end,  should be priority number one. But I think defensive line in general is the area that needs the biggest talent infusion.
  3. Moving back to the 3-4 should give Jermaine Cunningham and Ron Brace a chance to contribute more.
  4. The status of the Pats best interior line rushers Mike Wright and Myron Pryor will be something to monitor. The Pats have gone two seasons without much interior rush at all.
  5. Sadly, I think Mike Wright’s career could be done. Back to back season ending concussions is nothing to mess with.
  6. I am not sure I agree with those saying CB is a major need. Say what you will about Ras-I Dowling and his injury bug but he started the first two games of his career with limited training camp. It’s a fact that the Patriots like what they see in him.
  7. I see the Pats willing to go into 2012 with a McCourty-Dowling tandem on the outside, with Kyle Arrington at star.
  8. I expect McCourty to at least have the chance to bounce back. Whether he will or not remains to be seen. But I think he has a good chance to get back to where he was as a rookie.
  9. Sterling Moore should provide good depth giving the Pats a solid tandem of young corners who can develop. Adding another veteran/rookie corner will be necessary, but not as an expensive Free Agent or first rounder. Preferably a physical slot corner.
  10. Safety is an area where I think we need a “Throw it all at the wall approach”. Unfortunately there are no primetime free agent or draftable safeties so there needs to be competition to bring out the best in everyone they bring in. 
  11. I expect they try to at least replace Sergio Brown with a rookie safety who could project to start long term while playing special teams immediately. Not sure there’s anything long term to be excited about with Sergio.
  12. The key to finding a safety to play next to Chung? Someone who excels in coverage and has a nose for the ball. Barrett or Ihedigbo can be the situational box safety, but stabilizing the back end is the biggest issue facing the safety group.
  13. Assuming Guyton is gone, I like the Mayo-Spikes-Fletcher core of the inside linebackers. Bring back Tracy White too. Maybe even Niko too.
  14. Markell Carter is the real wild card for how big of a need outside linebacker is. Ninkovich has cemented his spot. Mark Anderson should be a priority signing on the other side. They should add another body to the mix, but Carter will affect if it’s a prime free agent/high draft pick, or another developmental guy.
  15. Either way I think they won’t hesitate to grab a prime OLB high in the draft if they like him. But they’re very very picky when it comes to those guys so I won’t hold my breath.
  16. Will Brian Waters retire and can Marcus Cannon play guard are two of my biggest questions when it comes to the offensive line.
  17. I expect both Koppen and Connolly to be back.
  18. I also expect an interior lineman to be drafted higher than anyone expects. The middle of the pocket needs long term reinforcements.
  19. Rich Orhnberger is the most hilarious Patriot on Twitter, but I’m not sure how he fits into the long term plan.
  20. Though the odds are slim, I don’t think it’s out of the question that Chad Ochocinco reduces his salary and returns. 
  21. But Brandon Lloyd is proven in the system so he’s probably the better choice.  I just don’t know if everything can come together for them to sign him. Regardless the Patriots need an X receiver and that should be the biggest offensive priority this off-season. 
  22. Randy Moss isn’t coming back. Love what he did in his time here, but they’ve turned the page and as much as he might be able to run down the field pretty fast still, he’s a one trick pony at this point and one trick ponies don’t have a home in Foxboro.
  23. I’d be surprised if they don’t re-sign the Law Firm. He might not be flashy but he’s reliable. Shane Vereen is a real wild card. I think a lot of people are forgetting how much speed and skill he has.
  24. Deion Branch comes back on a 2-year, low cost deal. Good insurance and leadership ala Kevin Faulk this year and Troy Brown in 2006/2007. But I expect the Pats to make every effort to replace him on the depth chart.
  25. Praying they’re able to lock Welker up with a three year deal. An off-season without a contentious negotiation would be fabulous.