Statistical Hoodie Analysis from Bob Yoon

Here’s a little preview of the research that went into our upcoming hoodie history article.

FoPP’er Bob Yoon helped me put together the research for the Belichick Hoodie database, and had some really interesting analysis:

Whenever Belichick wears gray, the Pats win by an average of 11 points. Blue, 9.05. He should avoid Red and White. White, they lose by 5.67 points and red, they’re barely scraping by. When I dug into this further, the main difference seems to be on how many points the Patriots score. The Patriots score 8 points less when Belichick is wearing red. White, forget about it - 11.67 points. The amount of points scored by the opponent is statistically the same no matter the color Belichick is wearing.
Then I looked at the type of clothing he was wearing. The Patriots are absolutely dominant when Belichick wears a winter coat. Point difference is 24.5. The worst was polo shirts (-4.89). Also, whenever Belichick wears a type of clothing he normally doesn’t wear, the Patriots tend to lose. When I dug into this data, it was the defense that makes the biggest difference. When Belichick is wearing a winter coat, the Patriots hold the opponents to 10.143 points a game.

Below are some number crunching on expected and actual win totals. When he’s in grey, the Pats win more than expectations have them winning. (Expected 58-20, actual 63-15)

    Black   Blue   Gray    Red  White  Total
    L      0     21     15         5      5         46
        0.25  21.87  19.61   2.77   1.51
       0.251  0.035  1.082  1.807  8.084
    W     1     66     63          6      1       137
        0.75  65.13  58.39   8.23   4.49
       0.084  0.012  0.363  0.607  2.714
So the top number is the actual number. The number below it is the expected number and the last number is how far the actual deviates from the expected. So blue actual is pretty close to expected. Gray slightly better and red and white are worse. For instance, red’s expected W-L is 8.23-2.77 but in actuality it is 6-5.

Thanks to Bob for the help, the full article will be posted on Bleacher Report on Friday with a total breakdown of the history of the hoodie.

Follow Bob at @PatsCognoscente

Blog comments powered by Disqus