Nice work here from Michael Talarski who dives into the professional vs. amateur draft pundit predictions.
If you’re fan of only one sport the off-season can be long and arduous. So you have to find ways to keep yourself entertained. For NFL fans the NFL draft adds a break from the wait. As such it becomes a tad insane. Following the draft can be fun, though it’s hard to educate yourself. The “best”…
The biggest focus of my last five years of blogging about the Patriots has been Bill Belichick’s chance to rebuild his defense from scratch and with total authority. While Belichick deserves a great deal of credit for the Patriots defenses that won three Super Bowls, ultimately those defenses were not hand picked by him.
Sure, he took the draftees of the previous regime like Bruschi, McGinest and Milloy, along with a collection of castoffs from other teams like Vrabel, Phifer and Harrison, and put them in positions to succeed, but those years just proved his coaching genius. Those players were not going to play forever, and now Belichick has a chance to prove his scouting and development genius.
It’s rare that a coach has the kind of control and vision that he gets to construct a defense from scratch, but that’s exactly what Belichick began doing in 2008 with the selection of Jerod Mayo.
Thus, one of my most favorite times of year is the draft, especially when Belichick takes defensive players. So you can imagine my excitement after this year’s haul, and in fact it’s taken a few days for it all to actually sink in. It’s safe to say it left me speechless. Until now.
Although the Pats had a universally-praised day one of draft picks there’s still work to be done today and tomorrow. While they only have two second-round picks remaining in the draft, I expect they’ll try to work the trade downs as much as possible to pick up some additional selections. I wouldn’t rule out a potential Brian Hoyer trade as to add some picks as well.
What positions do I see as needs still? Well I think there are a lot of defensive backs that will be available in the next two rounds who could be impact players like Brandon Boykin, DeQuan Menzie and Trumaine Johnson. There are also some running backs that might interest the Pats as well like Robert Turbin.
I also still have quite a few wide receivers that I like who are still available like Mohamed Sanu and Joe Adams.
We’ll see how it all plays out but if I had to bet, I’d go something like this.
I always find the draft somewhat anti-climactic. You have three months of build-up with endless possibilities to who your team could add, but by Sunday the Patriots will have a handful of players and all the speculation of who fits and who doesn’t will be dead and buried.
Here are some final quick hit thoughts as we await the Commish taking the stage.
Here’s the 2011 Patriots Big Board. These are draft prospects I like and think fit the Patriots style of play, roughly in the order I value them.
All comments, criticism, advice welcome. I make no claims of being a scout. This is simply a fun exercise for myself to find quality applicants for the New England Football Machine. I’ll allow this list to go as high as 50, so I’m still looking, but the goal as it was last year is to nail as many Pats picks as possible. Hence slots won’t be wasted on positions that aren’t glaring needs.
Today Frenz and I welcome Wes Bunting of National Football Post to discuss some draft prospects with Patriots potential. Tune in live or catch it on Itunes immediately afterwards.
We’re up to 30+ prospects on the 2012 Patriots-only big board but we had a couple thoughts to share. It’s hard to get too much into the draft and talk about needs before Free Agency, just like it’s hard to talk about Free Agency before all the Franchise Tags have been handed out.
Regardless, cornerback and wide receiver are two interesting groups with this draft class that I think bring up some questions when it comes to draft strategy.
Let’s start with the wide receivers. The Patriots have a need for an outside-the-numbers X receiver, which is a pretty hard player to find no matter what team you are. This year’s draft class features quite a few bigger receivers who aren’t exactly down-the-field burners, but are physical and have some savvy.
So the question it raises is if a guy like Michael Floyd or Mohamed Sanu would be appealing to the Patriots even without that 4.3 speed? Outside of their deep speed they look like solid fits. Let’s not forget the Patriots lack size and physicality at the receiver position as well as the proverbial “deep threat”.
I believe the Pats would and should seriously consider this type of receiver even though they might lack the deep speed to stretch the field vertically.
The advantage that large wide receivers can give you is that they’re a mismatch on small corners, especially if they’re left on an island. This ends up having the same result as a wide receiver who is a threat to get deep with his speed, instead here you’ve got to give your corner help with a safety because if you don’t you could be a quick wide receiver screen and a broken tackle away from a big gain.
There is more than one way to stretch a field, so I will not be ignoring this class of big, physical wide outs just because they lack deep speed in a year where everyone wants Mike Wallace or the draft equivalent.
As for cornerbacks I’ve seen a lot of mocks giving the Patriots Janoris Jenkins. Jenkins is undeniably intriguing from an on-the-field perspective but his off-the-field baggage has been well documented as well.
I don’t always write off a player immediately based on off-the-field stuff even though we are talking about the Patriots who have a penchant for what I call “football nerds”.
Regardless of whether Jenkins is a changed man who can fall in line in Foxboro or not, when I look at the rest of the corner class, especially the players ranked just below Jenkins there look to be some excellent Patriots prospects.
Stephon Gilmore, Chase Minnifield, Trumaine Johnson, and Jayron Hosely may all be slightly less talented than Jenkins, but all of them seem to me as safer choices who have the intangibles that they look for at the Football Academy in Foxboro.
With only a small drop off in talent, but a much safer off-the-field profile, there are plenty of corners in the 2nd and 3rd round for the Pats to choose from. I expect them to make the safe play, rather than take a risk on Jenkins.
We’ve jumped head-first into draft prep over the last week and it’s been exciting getting to know this year’s prospects. As we slowly compose our Patriots Big Board we have some general draft thoughts to share after our initial impression of what’s out there.
This will be our fourth Patriots draft that we’ve extensively blogged about. Each year I think I learn a little bit more about scouting and specifically the Patriots process in how they pick their players, because unlike most draft pundits out there I only focus on the Pats.
What I think a lot of draft pundits fail to understand is how the Patriots style of “value drafting” really works. Most mocks are simple, paint by numbers, “the Patriots are up, here are their needs, and here’s the top ranked player of those needs.
This is not value drafting. Sure, sometimes it works out that way, but ultimately only the Patriots know the true value of each player to their specific system.
A player could seem like a great fit for one of the Patriots first round slots to us outsiders, but if they have a second round grade on the player they will not select him there. Doesn’t mean they don’t like the player or that the player couldn’t help them. They’d just rather take him in the second round while everyone else thinks he’s a first rounder.
Last year’s situation with Mark Ingram is a great example. He seemed like a great fit in an area of need, coming from a Belichick-connected coach. Yet the Patriots saw far better value with Ridley and Vereen later in the draft, who together cost as much as Ingram did. That’s value drafting. That’s how you protect your team against injuries, failed expectations and the salary cap.
This is why I believe perhaps the most important thing to look at when considering the Patriots draft is which positions have the greatest depth and how those positions relate to the Patriots needs.
In 2010, it was tight ends. The Patriots took two of them in the early rounds. In 2011, it was running backs, and again the Pats took two of them in the early rounds.
My early impression of the 2012 draft is that the greatest depth is along the interior line, centers and guards, both positions of long term need for the Patriots.
So while we can all hope the Pats take a potential star at one of the bigger areas of need with their first pick, one thing I can see coming together is using multiple high picks on interior lineman.
There is no question that need affects value. So by that token Patriots fans should be cheering for all tackle and quarterback selections prior to the Pats’ picks. These are areas of lesser need for New England, thus driving more value down the board to the Pats slots.
Notes on Needs
X WR: There should also be some value in the second round for potential X receivers. If the Pats did take a WR with a first round pick he’d likely have to have “The Great Deep Threat Hope” tattooed on his forehead.
Safety: Barron is an easy pick to make in a mock draft, but there should be some safety value in the 2nd/3rd round as well. My initial instinct is that this is an area they’ll address after the first round. Personally I’d prefer more of a coverage safety with range to get over the top as opposed to an ‘in the box’ type. Patriots safeties need to do both, but someone who excels more at the back end is my preference. Will be interested to get a better idea of how Barron moves at the combine.
Center/Guard: Lots of good prospects who fit the Patriots style. If a lot of tackles go early the Pats could be in prime position to get one of the best Centers or Guards in the draft at 27. A lot of people will cry about this. I will not.
DL: Fletcher Cox is the current Pats favorite on the majority of mock drafts, however the Pats-type DL depth isn’t great. I am on board with Cox, but if they miss out on him they might have to wait until the later rounds to get a more developmental guy. Lots of potential 5-techniques out there and I see that as a significant need, but not as big as a Mike Wright-type who can play numerous positions, most importantly interior rusher on passing downs. That’s a need Cox would fill, but there’s no guarantee he falls to 27, and if he doesn’t there isn’t another guy with value in that spot that I see after my initial research.
OLB: The hardest position to project for the Patriots is always the most debated. So many factors this year: will they go back to a 3-4, can the prospect convert to play in space, will Mark Anderson/Andre Carter be back, is Jermaine Cunningham still a factor, how will Markell Carter factor in? Lots to wonder and debate about. So far there do seem like some guys who would fit well, narrowing them down will be one of my toughest tasks over the next two months.
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