The Patriots parted ways with Welker because they feel a slightly new direction for the offense is needed to win another Super Bowl. It’s definitely a road with more risk. The easiest thing in the world would have been to bring the ever-reliable Welker back and continue with the same offense, only with a better, younger and more explosive replacement for Brandon Lloyd as the boundary receiver. But sometimes you have to risk something to gain something. I think that’s what the Patriots believe. I don’t know this, but it’s been there on film all season. It was only reinforced with the loss to the Ravens in the AFC Championship. And I’m on board with it. Have been for a while.
If you want to talk about the Patriots picking a receiver this offseason in free agency or the draft, they’re going to have to be able to figure all this out…
“At times, there are four decisions that a receiver needs to make after the snap the way our offense is. That’s one of the advantages of our offense, that we give players a lot of flexibility within the system to take what the defense gives us. And that’s definitely something that’s unique about our offense.”
One of the areas where the Patriots improved dramatically was in third-down conversions, a very important category. Not only did they go from fifth in the league at 45.9 percent to first at 48.7 percent, they were better across the board relative to the rest of the league in every category: third-and-1 (12th to first), third-and-10-plus (18th to first), third-and-short (fifth to third), third-and-medium (seventh to first), and third-and-long (15th to fifth).
Over the course of the 2012 regular season, the Patriots had two or more tight ends on the field for almost an even 50 percent of their snaps. That is lower than expected and ties directly to injuries sustained by Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. If those two tight ends were healthy over the duration of the season, the percentage probably would be closer to 75 percent, if not higher. The trickle-down effect of that is that the Patriots ran an almost even 50 percent of their 2012 regular-season snaps with three or more receivers on the field.
As long as the Patriots are fixing their pass defense, they could stand to patch up their pass offense as well. New England scored the most points in the league this year, but they did it with efficiency, not explosiveness. The Patriots simply didn’t have any receivers who could reliably make plays downfield. Counting defensive pass interfence calls as completions, Tom Brady was only successful on 35 percent of his deep passes (balls that traveled more than 15 yards in the air past the line of scrimmage) in 2012. There were 32 quarterbacks with at least 50 deep passes this season, and only two (Cleveland’s Brandon Weeden and Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger) were less accurate with the long ball. Wes Welker (assuming he re-signs), Brandon Lloyd and Deion Branch will be a combined 98 years old next season. It’s time for the Patriots to find some fresh legs and stretch the field.
Remember how the Patriots’ single-game DVOA against Houston was surprisingly high? Well, it turns out it wasn’t just very high. It was “top ten of all-time high,” at least on the offensive side of the ball. Eighth, to be exact. The Patriots had a lot of mid-range gains rather than depending on a couple of big plays, plus they had very few plays that lost yardage and no turnovers. They did this against the defense that ranked No. 3 in DVOA this season.
Great must-read article for any X-and-O heads out there like me…
For many years, the Erhardt-Perkins offense was known as the original ground-and-pound, a conservative, run-first offense summed up by Erhardt’s mantra, “You throw to score and run to win.” With the help of his assistants, Belichick’s primary innovation was to go from an Erhardt-Perkins offense to an Erhardt-Perkins system, built on its method of organizing and naming plays. The offense itself would be philosophically neutral. This is how, using the terminology and framework of what was once thought to be the league’s least progressive offensive system, Brady and Belichick built one of the most consistently dynamic and explosive offenses in NFL history. From conservative to spread to blistering no-huddle, the tactics — and players — have changed while the underlying approach has not.2
Great breakdown of the Pats offense from Bucky Brooks.
Great play by play breakdown of the Patriots offense finishing off the AFC East in dominating fashion.
What the Patriots did in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s game against the Dolphins was impose their will on a Miami run defense considered to be one of the best in the league. The 16-play, 77-yard drive consumed 7:18 and changed the nature of the game: It made it a two-possession contest with 1:10 remaining, and helped secure the AFC East title for the fourth straight year.
