The Patriots kick off their 2020 campaign at home on Sunday against the Miami Dolphins. This will the first game since the departure of Tom Brady, and the first game for Cam Newton as a member of the Patriots. After a long offseason, the Patriots enter this season without a plethora of key contributors on both sides of the ball. Some were lost in free agency or trade, others opted out of the season due to covid concerns.
With an unconventional training camp, without a preseason, it’s truly tough to project how the Patriots will do this season. Some believe that the loss of Brady will result in the Patriots’ down-fall, others believe that Bill Belichick will scheme and game plan through all of this, and the Patriots will continue to have success.
Here are 10 predictions for the 2020 New England Patriots:
1. The Patriots will be a top-10 rushing team
If the Patriots want to succeed in 2020 they’re going to need to be able run the football. Currently the Patriots have Sony Michel, James White, Rex Burkhead, and J.J. Taylor on the active roster. Second-year running back Damien Harris was placed on injured reserve with a hand injury, but he’s expected to return after three games.
During training camp, many believed that Damien Harris would become the lead carrier in the backfield, but he suffered a hand injury in camp. None-the-less, I still fully expect the Patriots to be able to run the ball at an effective pace. Between the combination of Michel, Harris, White, and Burkhead, the Patriots have a dynamic, versatile, and deep group of running backs.
Last season the Patriots were not the best at running the ball. The Patriots ranked 18th in the NFL in rushing yards, and 18th in yards per game. So, what will make this season different from last?
The Patriots have a healthy offensive line, and David Andrews is returning to the fold. The interior part of the offensive line will be the difference-maker for the run game. Andrews, Shaq Mason, and Joe Thuney will really be impactful this season, and will lead to success in the run game. I believe the Patriots will run the ball by committee, and the lead back will depend on the game plan.
It’ll be a similar approach that the San Francisco 49ers took last season. Nobody rushed for over 1,000 yards last season on the 49ers, but they had three running backs rush for over 500 yards. I’m expecting something similar for the Patriots this season.
2. Chase Winovich will make a jump in his second season
Chase Winovich was selected in the 3rd-round of the 2019 draft, and had a solid rookie season. He had 6.5 sacks which was tied for the fourth most on the team. Winovich played 29% of the defensive snaps in 2019, but should project to be a prime contributor this season.
Winovich could have a multitude of roles on this Patriots defense, as he could project as an outside linebacker, or a defensive end. The Patriots lost outside linebackers Kyle Van Noy and Jamie Collins in the offseason, so the case could be made that Winovich could help the depleted linebackers.
Winovich projects to be someone that the Patriots could use on all three downs, but his primary responsibility will be to get to the quarterback. I’m expecting Winovich to lead the Patriots in sacks, as he’ll provide a spark when it comes to getting to the quarterback. If Winovich is able to get eight or nine sacks this season, the Patriots should feel good about Winovich’s future.
3. Ja’Whaun Bentley will surprise some people
Of the remaining linebackers on the team, Ja’Whaun Bentley is the only one who has prior experience wearing the green dot.
Ja’Whaun Bentley was voted a team captain, and this took many people by surprise. Bentley seems like the logical fit to fill the void of Dont’a Hightower in the middle of the defense. However, to this point, Bentley has not asserted himself as real playmaker in his two seasons in the NFL.
The 2018 season looked promising for Bentley as he started two of three games before he was placed on injured reserve with a biceps injury. Bentley did not see a plethora of playing time in 2019, as he only played 27% of the defensive snaps.
Even with Bentley’s inconsistent start of his career, a lot of it could be tied to some different factors. Before Bentley went on injured reserve in 2018, many people believed that Bentley was a gem that Bill Belichick found in the rough. 2019 was tough for Bentley to get on the field with Dont’a Hightower and Elandon Roberts ahead of him on the depth chart.
But, with Bentley leading the charge from the middle linebacker position, I’m expecting him to really turn back into his 2018 form. Bentley will prove some people wrong this season.
4. Gunner Olszewski will make an impact as a receiver
Gunner Olszewski made the 53-man roster last season as an undrafted rookie from Bemidji State. Olszewski was used as punt returner before he was placed on injured reserve with an ankle and hamstring injury.
Coming into this season, many people were not sure what to expect out of Olszewski. Many weren’t sure if he was only going to be a punt returner, or if Olszewski had more to offer than just punt returns.
Olszewski had a great training camp, and really stuck out among the wide receivers. Some in attendance felt that he was even the second best receiver on the roster. Many have compared Olszewski to Danny Amendola, and I don’t believe that comparison is that far fetched.
It’s not out of the question that by the end of the season, Olszewski is the number three receiver on the team.
5. The run defense will be a disappointment
Last season in the playoffs, Derrick Henry rushed for 182 yards and completely had his way with the Patriots defense. The defense had no answer for Henry, and it ultimately led to end of the Patriots’ season.
Danny Shelton was the Patriots’ primary run stopper, but he departed in free agency and signed with the Lions. With the loss of Danny Shelton, the Patriots signed former Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive tackle, Beau Allen. However, Allen did not participate in training camp, and was placed on injured reserve. His status in certainly unclear going forward, nobody knows what the injury is.
The Patriots currently have Lawrence Guy, Adam Butler, Byron Cowart, John Simon, Derek Rivers, and Deatrich Wise Jr on their defensive line. In terms of the interior part of the defensive line, until Beau Allen returns, the Patriots only have Guy, Butler and Cowart. Guy can absolutely make an impact, but Butler is more of a pass-rusher, and Cowart is a question mark.
The Patriots have a tough schedule in terms of stopping the run. They’ll be tasked with the challenge of stopping the 49ers and Ravens rushing attacks. I’m expecting a long season for the run defense. The combination of a thin defensive line and an inexperienced group at linebacker won’t bode well for the Patriots when it comes to stopping the run.
6. J.C. Jackson will soon be a household name on this defense
J.C. Jackson was an undrafted rookie in 2018, and has proven to be a hidden gem that Bill Belichick had stumbled upon. Jackson had a good sophomore campaign, and really established himself as the number two cornerback on the roster. He had 36 tackles, 10 passes defended, and five interceptions last season. According to Pro Football Focus, since 2017, when being targeted, Jackson has allowed a 49.6 completion %. That ranks first in the NFL among cornerbacks.
Jackson enters his third season with a chance to truly pop. With Stephon Gilmore getting the primary attention, J.C. Jackson has quickly made a case for himself as being a high end cornerback in this league.
I’m expecting another jump for Jackson in year three, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Jackson entered the pro bowl discussion.
7. Nick Folk will be the kicker
After a battle in training camp between Nick Folk and rookie Justin Rohrwasser, the Patriots decided to release both kickers. However, shortly after releasing them, the Patriots signed them both to the practice squad. It has not been made clear who Bill Belichick will roll with during the Patriots’ season-opener against the Dolphins. But, I believe that’s it’s a pretty safe bet that it will be Nick Folk.
The Patriots used a fifth-round draft pick on Justin Rohrwasser, and he struggled in training camp. He missed a plethora of kicks in practice, which resulted in Bill Belichick making the call to resign Nick Folk in the middle of camp.
I don’t believe that Nick Folk would still be with the Patriots if they had confidence in Rohrwasser. Folk made 16 of 19 field goals during his time with the Patriots last season. I’d be shocked if he wasn’t given the opportunity to be the kicker on Sunday.
8. Cam Newton will not play in all 16 games this season
Cam Newton has not played a full season in three of the last four seasons. Newton has dealt with some injuries in his career, and these injuries have certainly impacted how he has looked on the field.
Getting through an entire 16 game schedule won’t be easy for Newton, and it seems likely that he will get dinged up at some point. History suggests that Newton is not very durable, and his durability is likely what caused most teams to avoid him in free agency.
However, even with these injury concerns, I’m still expecting Newton to be productive from the quarterback position. The Patriots need to be very weary on how the offense looks with Newton under center. Keeping him upright and protected is key for Josh McDaniels and the offense. I just find it hard to believe that Newton will be able to really grind out all 16 games. Even if Newton was only able to suit up for 13 or 14 games, it’ll still be a win for Newton and the Patriots.
Carrying three quarterbacks on the 53-man roster could be another indicator about how the Patriots feel about Newton’s health.
9. Dalton Keene will emerge as the best tight end on the roster
The Patriots have some question marks at the tight end position. Bill Belichick decided to keep three tight ends on the roster. Ryan Izzo, Devin Asiasi, and Dalton Keene.
Izzo was a seventh-round draft pick in 2018, and did not get any playing action until his second season. Last season, Izzo only appeared in six games, only hauling in six receptions. He was primarily used as a blocker.
The Patriots decided to draft two tight ends in the third-round of this year’s draft. Devin Asiasi from UCLA, and Dalton Keene from Virginia Tech. They both have a different skill-sets, and will have different roles in the offense. But, I believe Keene will me most effective in 2020, and his versatility will be the reason why.
Keene is often described as a “swiss army knife,” due to his ability to play everywhere on the field. He can line up as a tight end, he can lineup in the slot, he can lineup as a full back, and he can even line up as a half back. Bill Belichick will get creative with Keene and really use his versatility to his advantage. Keene will make an impact in 2020, and will lead the tight end group.
10. The Patriots will win the AFC East
The Patriots will win their 12th consecutive division crown in 2020, and Bill Belichick will be the reason why. After losing a plethora of key players, including Tom Brady, many are already calling the 2020 Patriots a laughing stock. But, counting out Belichick is a recipe for failure.
The Patriots will be a run heavy team that will win games by winning the turnover battle and by winning games on defense. It won’t be easy, the Patriots don’t have an easy schedule. But, I believe that they’ll have a real opportunity to capitalize because of their preperation.
Belichick will be more prepared and more equipped to win football games than any other coach in the NFL. I believe that the Patriots can win 10 games this season, and will make another trip to the playoffs.