A Preview of the Real 2017 Patriots

After an entire offseason spent analyzing who the 2017 Patriots would be, we now have just a short window between actually finding out who made it through training camp and the official start of the campaign. This is why injuries are such a huge part of the game. No one could’ve predicted the early defining characteristic of the 2017 Patriots would be replacing an injured Julian Edelman but here we are.

So it’s a good time to take a quick breath and analyze this edition of the Patriots before the proverbial train leaves the station. You’ve read plenty of season previews by this point, but it’s really only the one that happens right now that truly matters.

Now we know who we’re taking to battle and what the strengths and weaknesses could potentially be. As always it’s important to remember that September really is just an extension of the preseason. The schemes, especially on defense, really start out slowly. Random guys will still get long looks in significant roles. The team will probably have a flat game where an inferior team on paper plays them tough. They’ll fight through it and ignore any noise.

This is September. Don’t overreact. Let things play out and let the coaching staff figure out exactly what they have and how to best use everyone. Then it’s pedal to the metal.

Let’s dive in.

Offense

With the loss of Edelman this has turned into such a fascinating year on offense. With the addition of Brandin Cooks and Phillip Dorsett the team suddenly has as much speed as they’ve ever had, but ironically the tables have turned on everything we’ve come to assume about how the offense wants to play.

After years of bemoaning needing a “deep threat” the Pats now have deep threats is spades and the question that has arisen is will they have the “quick open” weapons to keep the chains moving? Will the offense become dependent on risky and lower-percentage down-the-field passes? Will 2017 mark a significant change in the “death by a thousand cuts” offense we’ve become so accustomed to since 2010?

Most exciting to me is how they deploy their running backs, because the three-headed passing-down monster of White, Lewis and Burkhead has so much potential when it comes to taking advantage of underneath matchups left wide open as the field is stretched vertically by four receivers (Cooks, Hogan, Gronk and (eventually) Dorsett) who can all get down the field.

The assumption is that Hogan slides into the role of Mr. Third Down for Edelman. Last year he played mostly on the outside and led the league in yards-per-catch. Now I believe we’ll see him inside and running a lot more of the underneath routes as Cooks stretches things out. At least early on expect the team to switch between Dwayne Allen (12 personnel), Danny Amendola (11 personnel) and James Develin (21 personnel) primarily.

Dorsett is going to be eased in. He might come on for a shot play here or there in the first month, but I suspect we won’t see him much at all until October as he picks up the offense and earns the trust of the coaching staff and Brady.

What are the potential weaknesses of this offense? Like all teams there are depth concerns at certain spots, but none more critical than left tackle, and given the Pats’ protection of Nate Solder this preseason, that spot it just as critical as QB, and maybe more so considering the dropoff from Brady to Garoppolo compared to Solder to Waddle (or Fleming who’s hurt).

Danny Amendola is going to be a critical piece as well. If he puts in 16 games this season it will be the miracle the Pats’ offense and punt return team needs badly.

Otherwise the offense is well-stocked and insulated to overcome some bangs and bruises along the way. It should be a fascinating, and hopefully thrilling, year when the Patriots have the ball.

Defense

The critical question for me about the defense is can the young and unproven players replaces the clutch production that guys like Rob Ninkovich and Chris Long among others gave them in recent years. It’s hard to believe we’re only two years removed from Chandler Jones, Jamie Collins and Ninkovich being every-down players on defense. Those days are gone, and now newcomers like Cassius Marsh, Dietrich Wise and Lawerence Guy must be players the defense can lean on.

The depth at linebacker isn’t exactly ideal, especially after losing Shea McClellin. There’s still plenty of talent up front, led by the fearsome threesome in the middle —Alan Branch, Malcom Brown and Guy — along with all-everything leader of the defense Dont’a Hightower. There will be plenty of experimentation early on, with rookies like Harvey Langi and Adam Butler getting a chance to contribute, especially on passing downs.

The secondary is stacked and experienced. There’s no doubt they are the strength of the defense and can hopefully buy the extra second needed for the new pass rushers to get home. The dropoff at corner is pretty severe after the top three, but that’s the case with any team. We’re lucky to have three, but you wonder how the team can adjust if they were to lose one of them.

No player is more critical to what the Pats do than Patrick Chung. An injury to him could really alter what the defense can do. But all teams have those issues and on paper, the top line of this defense is still very, very good, although certainly unproven in a couple key spots.

I’m most curious to see how they hold up on the edges in the run game and if teams can exploit them horizontally due to a slight lack of athleticism on the second level.

Replicating last year’s top scoring defense will be a tall order. This edition will likely regress a bit due to turnover and a tougher slate of offenses, but by December they should be clicking on all cylinders.

Special Teams

With the loss of Edelman and Cyrus Jones the Pats are down to just Danny Amendola as a trusted punt returner. They’ll likely give someone else the chance to earn their trust early in the season, let’s just hope we’re not re-visiting Harpers Muff anytime soon. Dion Lewis showed game-breaker ability as a kickoff returner last year against the Texans in the playoffs and should be the top option this season.

Stephen Gostkowski‘s struggles with extra points continued this preseason with two misses. He was still pretty clutch otherwise, hitting a late game winner as well, but he’s been inconsistent enough over last couple seasons that Patriots fans do have a little nervousness with Gost that didn’t used to be there. Still, he’s great at the new kickoffs and remains the only option so it’s ride or die with Gost.

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It’s hard to know exactly what new things the team has in store for us this year. Yes, they had an impactful injury this preseason, a relatively rare occurrence under Belichick, but they had time to plan on how to overcome it. This is certainly not a year where the entire core of the Super Bowl champs is back and ready to defend the title. This is very much a new team with new questions.

But one thing we’ve come to know is that they’ll be as well-coached and well-prepared as any team and will give every opponent they face hell.