As I said on Patshow yesterday, this is one of my favorite football weeks of the year. There’s no official opponent yet so there’s no stress, I can just sit back and watch the Wild Card games and enjoy some playoff football without my stomach in knots. Of course all that changes next week.
Can the Patriots win Super Bowl 52? Of course, but as we’ve seen in every playoff run, they’re going to need to catch some breaks here and there along the way. Maybe even make an impossible play or two. We know the 2017 team pretty well by now, well enough that it’s clear they’re somewhat of an anomaly as far as Patriots teams go. They’ve had some huge injuries this year, but unlike 2013 and 2015, it hasn’t really devastated them.
Those teams couldn’t get by the Broncos in the AFCCG in Denver.
Thee 2017 team still locked up homefield and their three losses are pretty much par for the course of a mostly-healthy season. A couple early season stinkers and a mid-season flat game. Otherwise the Patriots did what it took to win no matter who was hurt or playing. That will be the same approach in the playoffs in a one game scenario where we can throw our “feelings” about how good or bad the team is out the window.
I never in a million years would’ve thought the Pats would find themselves in a 28-3 hole in the Super Bowl, but in that one game situation they did what Bill Belichick’s teams always do, kept fighting and clawed their way back in.
Here are three reasons on both sides of the coin — why they will and why they won’t win the Super Bowl.
The Patriots Won’t Win Super Bowl 52 because…
- No Julian Edelman Chain Mover — Let’s face it, without Edelman the Pats likely don’t win Super Bowl 49 or 51. They’ve gotten by this year without him, but it’s a different offense and one that can stall far easier on third down than when they had number 11 who could get open immediately against anyone, or make impossible catches on third-and-long. Can another receiver make those miraculous catches in critical moments? It’s why they need Chris Hogan back, and will have to depend on Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski.
- The Defense Will Get Exposed — It’s an annual tradition by this point, complaining about the Patriots defense and listing all the stats that tell us they’re actually really terrible. As BB says, stats are for losers and the Patriots defense are winners year in and year out. But they certainly have their flaws like their lack of athleticism at linebacker, trouble setting the edge (pre James Harrison perhaps) and a secondary that seems to have a couple brain farts every game. Could the right team on the right day expose all those and turn the Pats’ defensive deficiencies into game-winning points?
- They Should’ve Kept Garoppolo — Okay I kid, because I fully expect Tom Brady to come out and do what is needed to win. All the doubters love to grade him on the playoff curve, when he’s facing the best teams in the league in the highest of pressure situations, but no matter his ups and downs Brady always brings enough to win. But maybe if they had traded the 40-year-old, Jimmy Garoppolo‘s freshness and the fact that he’s never lost a game as a starter would’ve been useful? (Again, I kid. Seriously. Don’t even try to @ me)
The Patriots Will Win Super Bowl 52 because…
- Pats Makes the Final Play — When the Patriots lost those two Super Bowls to the Giants it was because the defense just couldn’t make the final stop. In each of the others the team did make the final play, whether it was Rodney Harrison picking off a fried Donovan McNabb, or Brady’s drives that led to game-winning points from Adam Vinatieri or James White. How can we expect anything different? A Pats blowout win or loss just seems impossible. Someone other than Hightower or Edelman will have to make that play now.
- The Pats Are Simply the Best Team — Is there another great team out there that can truly challenge the Pats on their best day? I have my doubts. Maybe the Pats come out flat and another team pulls it off, but if the Pats don’t beat themselves it’s hard to see who can beat them. It will take a perfect day and there are teams that could do it, but will they in Foxboro with everything on the line? It would be the most surprising end to a season since 2010.
- Tom Brady — Hi, we have the best QB in history on an MVP season. Full stop.