We’re back in the true Ministry of PatsPropaganda today so we’ll finally be able to really take a closer look the prospects the Pats took this year and get back to posting more Patriots wonderfulness, but of course it’s the Monday after the draft which means we’re again defending how the Pats did.
So we’ll start with the annual debate between drafting for need versus value. Drafting for need is what most teams do because most teams operate from a “must win now to keep our jobs” motivation.
BB obviously no longer has to do that, which is fortunate because drafting primarily based on need can be like “whack-a-mole”. You’re always just one play, one practice, even one workout injury away from a need. Needs are always completely fluid, even if some appear greater than others.
Now this year a lot of people are grading out the Patriots poorly for one reason, they didn’t draft an outside linebacker at the top of the draft. There was much clamor for a “pass rusher”, which I’m not even sure a lot of people know what they’re saying when they say it, but we’re just going to assume that OLB was the position people wanted since interior pass rushers and defensive backs who are skilled blitzers aren’t the sexy choices.
Many see the Patriots doomed to only dominate the regular season and never get another Super Bowl until the have a new Willie MacGinest, Mike Vrabel, or Lawrence Taylor. I get it.
Schematically that line of thinking is flawed anyway since the Patriots system is predicated on balance, versatility, and intelligence, but statistically the Pats stunk on third down and it seems like common sense that if you fix the weakest part of the roster you should see improvement. But it rarely works out that cleanly.
Let me illustrate the problem with that line of thinking, especially when you’re operating your franchise from a perspective of not “win right now” but “win for the next decade”.
I liken a football team to a house that you’ve built and must maintain. Now of course there are some parts of the house that are more vital to it’s structure and there are certainly parts that look pretty but really don’t keep the house standing (cough… wide receivers). Once a year you get to go to the a hardware supply company and pick a limited number of components with which to keep your house in tip-top shape.
Now this year the central staircase really needs to be fixed, but the rest of the house is generally in a good state. Unfortunately the only materials at the hardware store aren’t quite right for the marble staircase your design plans call for. You’re not sure if what they hardware company has will fit at all. Sure it will hopefully be a serviceable staircase that you’ll be able to get up and down, but it might never be perfect and that could very well lead to other problems.
Meanwhile there’s a cross beam at the hardware company that would be an ideal fit for your house and keep it standing for another decade. And while your current cross beam has been in place for a while, it’s still working okay and is nowhere as in need of repair as the central staircase, though it will surely need to be replaced in a couple years. This cross beam might even be in the discount pile.
Now do you just make the staircase work because it’s your biggest need, and ignore the fact that it could fail and then you might be looking to replace both that and the main cross beam in a couple years? Or do you take the cross beam that you know will work, and try to fix the staircase through other means, or worst case, wait until next years trip to the hardware company and see if they have the right materials then?
It’s this decision of need versus value that ten years into the BB regime people are still trying to wrap their heads around. I’m as surprised as anyone that the Patriots did not dip into this year’s defensive end class. I’m not however that surprised they didn’t take an outside linebacker project until later.
Trying to force a prospect to do things you’re not sure he can do will rarely work out well. That’s a move that a team who must win now makes, not one that is simply looking to continue a sustained run of dominance does.
The funny thing to me is that this was maybe the first time in BB’s draft history that he actually hit on every major need that I saw. It might not have addressed the teams biggest statistical weakness as early as many of us would’ve liked, but it was addressed.
Who knows if Markell Carter is just another Pierre Woods or Shawn Crable, or maybe he has real pass rush potential, only time will tell. But clearly they felt better about his chances to succeed in New England then they did a lot of other more well-known prospects.
Maybe, just maybe, he’ll actually be the pass rusher we were all looking for. Then we can change the Patriots draft grade to an A. Again.