PatsPropaganda

An Independent Patriots Blog

Mike Dussault

by

The Cowboys stymied Gronkowski and Hernandez with a wide variety of zone coverages, cutting down on big plays, avoiding mismatches, and relying on their pass rush to force errant throws. It wasn’t a perfect plan – the Patriots did win the game, and on a last-minute touchdown to Hernandez at that – but it was probably the best anyone has fared against New England’s tight ends all season.

Could Baltimore use a similar strategy in the AFC Championship Game? They will likely take more chances against New England than Dallas did. The Ravens have rushed three on only six percent of opponents’ pass plays this year, and have sent five or more rushers 39 percent of the time. That will help to limit the tight ends – Gronkowski and Hernandez can’t catch passes if they’re blocking defenders. And when the Ravens don’t blitz, they can still count on getting pressure, thanks to one of the best pass rushers in the league. Terrell Suggs finished fifth this year with 14.0 sacks, and while Game Charting Data has not been fully counted yet, we’ve currently got him second in football with 30 hurries.

Eventually, though, Gronkowski and Hernandez are going to get their passes. When they do, don’t look for Lardarius Webb or Cary Williams in coverage. Unlike the Cowboys, the Ravens rarely used cornerbacks to cover tight ends, doing so only 17 percent of the time. Instead, the two men in coverage will probably be strong safety Bernard Pollard and inside linebacker Jameel McClain. One of those men was the primary defender on 25 percent of passes to tight ends this year. How’d they do? Baltimore allowed 6.3 yards per pass against tight ends, tied for third in the NFL.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Divisional Round Quick Reads

https://www.patspropaganda.com/patriots-ravens-gronkowski-2/

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS| AFC Conference Championship Preview

by

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS| AFC Conference Championship Preview

If you only read one Patriots-Ravens preview make it this one.

Some interesting nuggets for those who don’t have the time or inclination to read this entire opus:

  • We know the Ravens like to use Ray Rice in the passing game, but the Patriots were very good against running backs in the passing game, ranking fourth in DVOA. That success is part of the reason why New England was actually pretty close to average on shorter passes, 15 yards or less through the air. Using the “defense vs. receivers” DVOA*, the Patriots come out with a -3.0% DVOA against these short passes. They allow an average of 6.47 yards per pass, slightly above the league average of 6.22 yards per pass.
  • Many people thought the Patriots pass rush was in trouble when defensive Andre Carter went down with an injury during the Week 13 game against Denver. But the Patriots’ Adjusted Sack Rate has actually improved since then. Including last week’s playoff game, the Patriots have gone from 5.9 percent ASR through Week 13 to 9.9 percent ASR in Weeks 14-19.
  • If you are a believer that teams develop over the course of the season, you’ve got to be a little extra worried about the Ravens in this game. The Ravens defense has simply not been the same since beginning of November. During the first nine weeks of the season, the Ravens defense ranked second against the pass, second against the run, and first overall. Since Week 10 (including the playoffs), the Ravens defense ranks fourth against the pass, 15th against the run, and seventh overall. Those ranks would be even worse if we didn’t include last week’s playoff game, as the Ravens did right the ship a bit against the Houston Texans.

  • Now, here’s a big difference between these two teams. The Patriots were one of the top teams in our special teams ratings this year. The Ravens, after a great year on special teams in 2010, plummeted all the way down to 30th.

  • This game is far from a slam dunk for the Patriots, but a lot of the matchups point their way. It’s not hard for offenses to gain passing yards on the Patriots defense, but the Ravens’ passing game just doesn’t seem to be particularly suited to picking on the Patriots’ greatest weaknesses unless Joe Flacco can hit a couple of deep bombs to Torrey Smith. Ray Rice should have a big day on the ground, but it is hard to outscore Tom Brady and this Patriots offense primarily with your running game.

Patriots vs. Ravens is a football purists’ dream

by

If you’re a fan of pure football then this year’s AFC Championship is just the game for you.  The Patriots and Ravens don’t have much ill will off of the field. The superficial dramatics that the Pats share with teams like the Colts, Steelers and Jets are absent with the Ravens.

Instead, the battle between New England and Baltimore will be all about football. Both teams respect each other, and both teams feature Hall of Fame players who might be seeing one of their last chances to get a ring.

Neither team is a “cinderella”. This is the one seed vs. the two seed for the right to go to the Super Bowl. It’s far less about schematic surprises and twists than it is about pure and simple physical football. Both teams will line up and it will be a fist fight until the final whistle.

Even though I am an obsessive Patriots blogger, I’m still a football purist at heart, and a match-up like this is one I savor. Two well-constructed football teams, not without their weaknesses, but each with respectable strengths, competing at the highest level.

The Patriots have had their share of playoff games like this is the past, and have come out on top the majority of the time. The moment was never too big for the early-2000’s dynasty Pats, but will it be for this, the second generation of Belichick Patriots? We’ll find out in 48 hours.

by

This is me…

https://www.patspropaganda.com/this-is-me/