Mike Dussault

In their first matchup with the Jets the Patriots were in their base 3-4 defense 66% of the snaps, and in their sub-defenses just 31% of them. What this tells us is that first and foremost the Patriots were concerned with shutting down the Jets running game the first time around and the results weren’t too impressive.

Mark Sanchez was 21 of 30 for 220 yards and 3 TDs, while the Jets put up a solid 136 yards on the ground. The Patriots run defense was especially mauled in the second half when the Jets offense began clicking on all cylinders. 

What is different this time around for the Patriots from a personnel perspective?

Brandon Meriweather is back to being nearly an every down player, while Kyle Arrington has been a fixture at RCB since Darius Butler was torched and taunted in the first matchup. Jermaine Cunningham has also grown a lot since September and figures to play a more prominent role this time around.

The big question on defense is whether or not Jonathan Wilhite can get his hip healthy by next Monday night. Wilhite’s return will free Patrick Chung from nickelback duties and allow him to do what he does best, which is a little bit of everything.

With the Jets now having Santonio Holmes in the fold this could change how the Patriots choose to defend them. My early thought is that we’ll see a lot more balance out of the Patriots defense this time around. The Jets have not been afraid to let Mark Sanchez throw the ball this year and everyone knows the Pats pass defense is their biggest weakness. Expect a lot of three receiver sets forcing the Patriots to pick their poison.

The sub package we saw last time against the Jets was the “Big Dime”…

Wright – Wilfork – Pryor

Mayo – Banta-Cain

McCourty – Wilhite – Sanders – Butler

Meriweather – Chung

This allowed the Pats to maintain a presence against the run with Wilfork in the middle even on likely passing downs. We could see even more of this, but with Mike Wright and Myron Pryor both missing the Lions game, their return will be vital. Missing two veteran defensive lineman who are also their best pass rushers would be tough for New England to overcome.

Offensively the Patriots are balanced and no longer relying on the deep threat of Randy Moss to move the ball. The short, quick receivers are a matchup advantage over Antonio Cromartie. Cromartie has the length and long speed to cover Moss, but quick cutting receivers like Welker and Branch give him fits. Just watch Welker’s touchdown from week 2 when he was lined up against Cromartie.

Both teams are confident and will move the ball. Again it will come down to turnovers. Let’s not forget that Tom Brady had a dreadful second half against the Jets last time. Two third down passes to Randy Moss were picked off and a third was incomplete by a mile. Brady will surely be looking to make up for that performance.

I know I’ll be caught up in the hype this week along with everyone else. In fact, I’ll probably be leading a lot of it. But first, let’s  just remember that while this game will be hyped like the Super Bowl, especially if you’re still watching Sportscenter, it’s not the Super Bowl. 

If the Jets win, the Patriots will be almost assured a wild card spot and probably end up back in San Diego, Kansas City, Jacksonville or maybe even Indianapolis (I don’t write off Peyton Manning, at least in the regular season). 

So it’s pretty clear the Patriots need this game more than the Jets do. It wouldn’t be an impossible road to a division title and bye if they lost, but it would be pretty close to impossible, requiring almost certainly a 4-0 final quarter of the season. 

Either way the road doesn’t get any easier for the Jets or the Pats, and for either team to win all four of their remaining games would be impressive.

Both teams must go to Chicago. The Pats head there on a short week right after MNF. The Jets see Miami then head to Pittsburgh before making a trip of their own to see the NFC North-leading Bears. They close out the season hosting the Bills.

The Pats play their final game against the NFC North by welcoming a Green Bay Packers team that will be in the thick of the playoff hunt and badly need a win. 

The Jets do have one advantage, both their final two AFC East games are at home. The Pats must travel to Buffalo, where I hear the weather at the end of December is beautiful and ideal for football, before welcoming Miami for the finale.

If the Jets win they will have a virtual lock on the AFC East crown with essentially a three game lead on New England with four to play, since they would also own all tie breakers. That doesn’t really make it fun for anybody, does it?

Pats need this one more, and especially being at home, that usually is a pretty good recipe for success. And of course a little Spygate bullshit never hurts either.