PatsPropaganda

An Independent Patriots Blog

Mike Dussault

ProFootballFocus.com: Patriots – Lions ReFocused

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Here’s what PFF had to say about how some Pats did versus the Lions…

Patriots: Three performances of note

We’ll start with Brady (+8.1), who had the perfect game (statistically, at least). The Lions got pressure on Brady on 12 of his 28 dropbacks but he responded by completing 63.6 percent of his passes, and it was much worse for Detroit when Brady was given time. He completed 87.5 percent of his passes in this instance at an incredible 17.1 yards per attempt. It was still mainly short stuff (only 8 of 27 passes were longer than 10 yards) but a great effort nonetheless by Brady.

Rookie cornerback Devin McCourty (+2.3) had a big day with two interceptions. Perhaps more impressively, McCourty only allowed two completions the entire game for a combined 13 yards despite being thrown at seven times. Three of those attempts came againstCalvin Johnson, and only one of those were complete as McCourty enhanced his reputation.

Not for the first time this season, we’re a little disappointed with the play of Sebastian Vollmer (-3.4). He had his struggles with Cliff Avril and Ndamukong Suh in giving up four quarterback pressures but was also comfortably the worst Patriots lineman when it came to run blocking. Last year we couldn’t help but heap praise on Vollmer, but he’s played like a different guy in 2010.

Rookie report

Brandon Spikes (+1.7) saw limited action but did break up a pass. … We got to see more of Dane Fletcher (+1.1), who had two QB pressures and one batted pass. … Kyle Love (+3.3) turned 23 defensive snaps into two quarterback pressures and two stops whileJermaine Cunningham (+0.7) also had two pressures. … Rob Gronkowski (+1.2) made some nice plays as a receiver, catching all five balls thrown his way, while fellow tight end Aaron Hernandez (+0.7) didn’t do much outside of his touchdown. … Punter Zoltan Mesko (+0.0) had an average day and will be glad Stefan Logan didn’t break any big returns on his kicks.

For Detroit, Amari Spievey (-1.5) had a tough day despite making nine tackles. Shouldn’t the 2-9 team have a bunch of rookies playing big snaps, not the 9-2 team?

Tanier: When Will The Bounces Stop Going The Jets’ Way?

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Tanier: When Will The Bounces Stop Going The Jets’ Way?

I’m the last person who’s going to get on the Jets case about winning close games even against teams with a below average record. I saw the Patriots eek out close games on their way to three Super Bowls. However there’s a difference between playing sound fundamental football/ not beating yourself and just getting lucky bounces. I think this article sheds some light on which the Jets have been doing/getting.

Patriots Pass Defense: Actually Good vs. Third & Fourth WRs

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My favorite football stats site Football Outsiders has some pretty nifty breakdowns of each teams pass defense versus each different receiving option on each team they faced. 

Here’s where the Pats rank on each:

vs. #1 WR: 27th overall

vs. #2 WR: 27th overall

vs. Other WR: 4th overall

vs. TE: 25th overall

vs. RB: 29th overall

Say what you will about slot corner Jonathan Wilhite but these numbers do point somewhat positively toward him. 

Football Outsiders: Patriots 97.3% Chance of Making Playoffs, 48.4% Chance at 1st Seed

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You can check out their methodology here, but it looks like a lock that the Pats and Jets will both be in the playoffs. The Pats also have a 48.4% chance at the number one seed in the AFC, which is of course a monstrous advantage.

In fact there’s a pretty good chance they will finish with the first and second best records in the AFC, however only one team will get a bye. The other will be looking at a 5 seed and a trip to San Diego (as FO projects). Just another reason why this next game is going to be so huge.

The full FO playoff projection is below. If the Patriots beat the Jets next week they will have beaten every single AFC playoff participant. That’s pretty amazing when you think about it.

AFC

  1. Patriots
  2. Steelers
  3. Colts
  4. Chargers
  5. Jets
  6. Ravens

NFC

  1. Falcons
  2. Eagles
  3. Packers
  4. Seahawks
  5. Saints
  6. Giants