No one was more surprised than I was when Bill Belichick changed his hoodie at halftime of the 2015 AFC Championship in Denver. As most of you know by now, I’ve carved out a little niche by tracking Belichick’s gameday attire, and never before had I noted him changing his hoodie like this.
Everyone seemed to notice this bit of minutiae, but at the time I failed to see a clear reason for the switch. But as I dug into the hoodie database a little deeper, an answer became so obvious it seemed like Belichick was digging into my hoodie stats even deeper than I myself ever had!
Bill Belichick is doing anything he can to rally his team…including wardrobe changes. pic.twitter.com/0dUTBWwGsb
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) January 24, 2016
From Hot Jacket to Sleeved Hoodie
Belichick started the game in the 2013 “Hot” jacket, which I saw as a reasonable second choice in my hoodie prediction article. Belichick was 10-1 last season in the “Hot” jacket, including the divisional round win over the Chiefs. The only loss was the stinker in Miami, the last game of the regular season.
I thought, due to weather, a hoodie was the more likely choice, so my final prediction was the 2015 Blue Nike Hoodie. Belichick was just 1-1 in that Hoodie during the season, the best win (Giants) and the worst loss (Broncos), but it seemed to make the most realistic sense given the weather outlook. It was 46 degrees at kickoff, so it was a bit of a surprise that he stuck with the Hot jacket, that was his go-to last season so it wasn’t a total shocker.
Belichick’s switch at halftime wasn’t into that 2015 Blue Hoodie, but to a never-before-worn 2015 Gray Hoodie, with uncut sleeves. Now, this is the first I’ve mentioned sleeve cutting here. At a certain point it was cutoff sleeves that defined Belichick’s hoodie. But in truth, Belichick has been cutting off the sleeves less of late.
But this was the key finding as I searched for a statistical impetus for Belichick to change his outfit.
The problem with the Blue “Hot” Jacket (which has short sleeves of course) was that Belichick had lost to the Broncos in the 2013 AFC Championship in it. Go further back and you’ll find a number of other losses to Peyton Manning and the Broncos came when Belichick had his arms exposed.
Both 2005’s Week 6 loss and the playoff season-ender to the Broncos in Denver came in the classic Gray Reebok Hoodie with the sleeves cut off. So did 2005’s first regular season loss to Peyton and that Colts, as well as 2006’s playoff season-ender in Indy. 2009’s 4th-and-2 loss in Indy came in the Blue Reebok Hoodie, and yes, the sleeves were cut off there too.
But then you look at 2003 and 2004, the height of dominance for Belichick and the Patriots over Peyton Manning, and the first two games that jump out are the 2003 AFC Championship and the 2004 AFC Divisional Round. What’s Belichick wearing in both?
Gray Hoodies with the sleeves intact. Just like he changed into for the second half of the 2015 AFC Championship.
Now some of you might say to me, “Deuce, the weather was just getting cold and he grabbed whatever random hoodie the equipment guys packed. Your stats are stupid and he doesn’t give a shit about superstitious bs like this.”
Well, you’re probably right, but with the Patriots trailing 17-9 at halftime after a slow start, is it a coincidence that he happened to pick a the same kind of sweatshirt he hadn’t worn against Manning since the last time he ended him in the playoffs, circa January 2005, ten years ago? Probably yes. BUT MAYBE NOT!
Manning and the Broncos offense would score just three more points in the game, a performance that brought back memories of the near-total shutdown the Patriots pitched in the 2003 and 2004 playoffs against him.
Perhaps if I had broken the code of the short sleeve/long sleeve paradigm when putting my hoodie prediction together, he would’ve gone with an uncut Gray hoodie from the start and the Patriots would’ve played far better in the first half.
Overall, Belichick was 8-3 against Manning when he had full sleeves on. Of the three losses, one was 2005 in a red hoodie (eeek), another came in 2008 with Matt Cassell (doesn’t really count!!) and the final one came against the Broncos in the regular season finale of 2015. With sleeves cut or in a short sleeve against Manning, Belichick was 3-4 overall.
Yes, I blame myself and now the information about the power of full sleeves against Peyton Manning is unfortunately of no use to us.
What good is a Bill Belichick Hoodie Database if it’s not used correctly? At least we now (might) know why he went back to the trusty old gray hoodie in a time of need.
Current stats through 2015 season.