Leading up to the first preseason game is always an interesting time to analyze what your team looks like. That being said, this roster will be very different opening night at ‘Zona, but for now let’s work with what we think we know.
On paper, this is arguably the most gifted Patriots’ squad since ’07. Forget about the Brady led offense for now; I first want to focus on the depth and talent on the other side of the ball. The defense is loaded with more than capable playmakers at every level. Up front, there’s about 1,000 pounds of force between the expected 3-man rotation at D-tackle, 2nd year breakout candidate Malcom Brown, veteran Alan Branch, and newcomer Terrance “Pot-Roast” Knighton.
These are versatile and talented big men that will allow Belichick/Patricia to mix up 3 and 4 man looks up front. Rookie Vincent Valentine and/or ex-Giant Markus Kuhn should provide quality depth behind the aforementioned trio. On the edge, I’m not as worried about the loss of Chandler Jones as the next guy.
I actually hold the unpopular opinion that Jabaal Sheard was more consistently the better player when healthy last season. Between Sheard, the addition of Chris Long from LA, and Bill’s latest reclamation project linebacker/pass-rusher ex-Bear Shea McClellin, Jones’ loss should be alleviated. Throw in a (hopefully) healthy Nink when it matters, plus a pair of potentially impactful 2nd year pros Geneo Grissom and Trey Flowers, and defensive end looks to be another position of strength on this roster.
At linebacker, Collins and Hightower are as devastating to opposing offenses as any tandem in the league. Both are skilled enough to cover a tight end in the open field on one play, and on the next blow up a running back 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage.
The secondary is stacked with smart and adaptable ‘chess pieces’, built to handle today’s NFL pass first offenses. McCourty, Chung, Ryan, and Butler complement each other extremely well at safety and cornerback respectively, and top draft pick Cyrus Jones is expected to compete with Justin Coleman and others for the increasingly important nickel spot.
It’s tough to poke a hole in this defense, and it could very well be the identity of the team over the first month of the season. Now let’s talk about the O.
The additions of TE Martellus Bennett and WR Chris Hogan, plus the return of running back Dion Lewis supplement what was already a prolific aerial attack. Bennett provides a literally enormous counterpart to Gronk, and unlike Scott Chandler, actually likes to and is a competitive blocker. This is an important distinction because it makes it that much harder for the opposing defense to identify whether the play is a run/pass/ or play-action while Bennett is on the field, whereas Chandler was mostly involved on passing plays.
In other words, good freaking luck defensive coordinators. At receiver, assuming the health of Edelman and Amendola, Brady has his “binkies” and if one or more of the others can prove themselves as trustworthy (Hogan, Martin, Mitchell, Dobson…) that would be icing on the cake.
I’d say other than TB’s suspension and the performance of Jimmy G over the first month, the most notable area of concern would be the offensive line and “power” running game, which are obviously connected. With the return of O-line coaching savant Dante Scarnecchia, the health of book-ends Solder/Vollmer, and the emergence of a younger interior guy in the early going (read: Joe Thuney), there’s reason for optimism and expected marked improvement.
Running back is a big position of interest during the pre-season. Look for musical chairs until one differentiates from the pack. A guy who has seen a lot of work during camp? Tyler Gaffney. A standout pre-season from the ex-Stanford Cardinal could throw a wrench in the running back depth chart until Lewis returns to full go from his ACL tear.
In short, this 2016 Patriots team is absolutely loaded, on both sides of the ball.
Let’s take a look around the rest of the AFC. I could start at quarterback for the Broncos, the Steelers do the majority of their scouting at the local halfway house, the soft Colts are more concerned about plotting the next sting-op than actually improving, and as a division first runner-up, the Jets have to face a halfway challenging schedule this season. Welcome to competency! My point is that the AFC is wide open. Injuries aside, the Pats have not only far and away the most top talent, but also the best talent from top to bottom of the roster, a deadly combination. That’s the good news. Unfortunately now I’m going to take off my Pats onesie, and rain on this parade a little bit.
Here’s the bad news.
Next offseason will bring many more questions than answers, and the impending free agent class is cause for sincere trepidation. Some of the players that will be looking for new deals after this season: Collins, Hightower, Knighton, Long, Bennett, Vollmer, Malcolm Butler, Alan Branch, Jonathan Cooper, Logan Ryan, Duron Harmon, Sheard, Ninkovich, and special teams captain Matthew Slater, among others.
Jeez, throw in a journeyman QB and a decent draft class and the players the Pats could potentially lose next offseason would be good enough to beat up on the Cleveland Browns. With the trade of Chandler Jones, the likelihood the Pats could retain the “Big 3” (Collins, Hightower, and Butler) was seemingly raised. Now, looking at how the market is shaping up, I’m not so sure.
Corner/safety Tyrann Mathieu from Arizona just got 5 years 62 million (40 million guaranteed), and San Fran LB Navarro Bowman got a 7 year 77 million (20 million guaranteed) dollar deal. That’s great news for the above-mentioned big three, but not for the Patriots, who very well could be budgeted out of the building. The Pats have been notoriously stingy with giving out big contracts and there have already been reports that Collins is asking for obscene money. Losing him or one of the other two could be a scary inevitability. That being said, high impact players have come and gone before.
Am I confident Belichick the GM will find a way to field strong, 11+ win teams every season until Brady retires? Absolutely, he has for the last 15 seasons. But am I confident any of those teams will be quite as talented as this years’ squad? No. This season is not Brady’s only shot at his 5th, but it is his best. Let’s capitalize.
Go get one for the “finger”!
Go Pats!
