In a thrilling comeback victory against the Jaguars, the Patriots advanced to their eight Super Bowl in the Brady-Belichick era, and are one win away from winning three out of four Super Bowls for a second time in this century alone. The Patriots were forced to rely on Brady’s fourth quarter heroics in a matchup that featured the Jaguars ferocious front seven completely shut down the Patriots run game. Dion Lewis, after averaging 142.3 yards from scrimmage in his past three games, was held to just 34 yards on the ground and 32 through the air. If you take away his 18 yard first down run that sealed the win, Lewis ran for just 16 yards on eight carries (2.0 YPC), a far cry from his season average of 5.0 YPC, which was second in the NFL among running backs.
Almost all of the offense had to come through Brady and the passing game, and while they delivered, the Patriots will need a better effort on the ground 11 days from now against Philadelphia. An interesting pattern that I discovered is that, when the Patriots (not including “runs” by Brady and Hoyer) rushed for 4.4 or more yards per carry in a game, the Patriots were 9-0 this season (including playoffs), and had an average point differential of +15.1 in those games. However, in the nine games when they rushed for less than 4.4 yards per carry, the Patriots were 6-3, and had an average point differential of +5.7. Of course, if there is one quarterback that can overcome a lack of success on the ground, it’s Tom Brady, as he is the only quarterback in NFL history to have a winning record in games in which he is forced to throw 50+ times (19-9, a .667 winning percentage).
While the Patriots can indeed still win games when passing far more then rushing, it’s not necessary a good pattern to develop, and the Patriots will need more out of their running game if they hope to take down the Eagles next Sunday. Against Jacksonville, 86% of the Patriots total offense came from the passing game, the third-highest figure of the season, trailing just the loss in Miami and the comeback win against Houston. 70% of Patriot plays were passes, which was tied with the Divisional win against Tennessee as the third highest run-pass discrepancy of the season, trailing the losses to Miami and Carolina.
The weirdest part of this imbalance is that Jacksonville was not known for stopping the run, and in fact, they were below league average this season against the run, ranking 21st in rushing yards allowed and 23rd in yards per carry allowed. Heading into the game, the hope was that Lewis and White could set the table well on early downs in order to make third downs more manageable for Brady against Jacksonville’s top-ranked pass defense, but that did not happen.
Eight of the Patriots 14 runs came on first down, and those eight runs only gained an average of 1.9 yards. Coincidentally, the Patriots only converted 25% of their third downs. However, against Tennessee, the Patriots averaged 3.8 yards per carry on first down runs, and converted 65% of their first downs. Early-down success on the ground could be a crucial factor to the Super Bowl (especially against an Eagles defense that had the third-lowest third down conversion rate allowed this season), because if the Patriots can get Brady in short down and distance on third down and avoid obvious passing situations against the Eagles elite front seven, I think Brady will be able to pick apart Philly’s secondary, which finished just 16th in passing yards allowed.
However, getting the running game going could prove to be a tall task. Philadelphia finished 6th in the NFL in yards per carry (3.8) and allowed the fewest yards on the ground in the NFL this season. The good news is that in these playoffs, shiftier, east-west backs like Dion Lewis have had success against the Eagles front. Tevin Coleman ran for 79 on just 10 carries, and Jerick McKinnon had 40 yards on his 10 carries, whereas more north-south runners Devonta Freeman (just seven yards on 10 carries) and Latavius Murray (18 yards on six carries) struggled immensely. Hopefully, if Lewis can find the holes in the Eagles defense and set up Brady and the passing game in positive third down situations, I think the Patriots could run away with this game. If the Eagles force Brady and the Pats to depend solely on the pass (a la Atlanta and Seattle), I think this game could come right down to the wire.
l don’t know what Lewis was doing on several plays he just seemed to run straight into the asses of his blockers ala LeGarrette Blount when a clear outside path seemed available Very noticeable on the double pass if he just stuck to the sideline it looks like an easy 10 more yards.. Not one of his better days for sure
Any one know why Rex Burkhead wasn’t more of a factor in this game? Only had one touch when he caught a pass then got drilled by Jack in the back. While he was slow to get up after that I notice he isn’t on the injury report this week. Perhaps he just wasn’t part of the gameplan? Wonder if maybe they could have tried him out on first down instead of Lewis after things slowed for them in that regard.
The Jags emphasized stopping the run is all. And their speedy linebackers were ready to break on screen passes, and consistently beat their blockers. Pats had good plays set up, but were not able to execute. Our best screen passes have been delayed, with misdirection, and we need those in this game.
First possession of the game: hard run action into a play action pass. I can almost guarantee that Philadelphia will take away short passes and runs at the start of the game and challenge us to be aggressive. We need to come out with a mindset to punish that until they play a less aggressive defense. Then we can have success in the running game.
The Pats are very predictable on offense at the start of games. We always play conservatively. When teams clog the middle and press receivers, we don’t take what they are giving us, which is the space behind the linebackers downfield. This is on McDaniels to be prepared for the Eagles to be aggressive early in the game, and not run conservative plays that give them what they want.