Can the Pats Defense Stop KC?

If there’s one thing that was clear from the 2017 Patriots’ bookend losses to start and end the season, it’s that they lacked athleticism at the second level to counter the explosion of versatile offensive attacks. Plays like the read option, a nightmare for a slow linebacking corps, got the Patriots off balance early and opened up the playbook to a variety of other things like the Philly Special.

This offseason my biggest goal for the team was to get more athletic at linebacker. It looked unaddressed until Ja’whaun Bentley burst onto the scene, bringing some hope that the Pats finally had a second-level player who could make plays sideline-to-sideline. But alas, Bentley was lost for the season with a torn biceps, Dont’a Hightower has seemingly lost a step, and the Pats are dead in the crosshairs of an offense that has opened the season on fire, with the same defensive weaknesses they had last year.

The Chiefs have torched the Pats before, in 2014 and the 2017 opener, but with Patrick Mahomes under center they are playing at an even better level than either of those Alex Smith-led squads. They have speed, they have quickness, they have power and they have a quarterback that can not only throw the ball to any spot on the field, but one who excels making plays outside the pocket on the move.

The Chiefs pose a myriad of problems for every defense in the league and on paper, it would appear the Pats are really lacking what they need most to slow them down. But the Pats do have the pieces in front and on the back end to win this game, even if they do give up their share of plays. Spoiler alert — they will.

Here’s a pre-gameplan feel for what the Pats need to focus on to beat Kansas City.

The key to this game is to not think about shutting the Chiefs down, but managing how many points they score. Between Kelce, Hunt, Hill and Ware, the Chiefs have far too much depth at the spots the Patriots will most struggle. There’s only one Patrick Chung and after him, the coverage in the flat can be problematic.  D-Mac clearly can’t be had covering tight ends and running backs.

Jonathan Jones could be a good choice to handle Hill, or at least try to handle him. Jones has as good of speed as anyone on the team and is a feisty tackler. He’s not a perfect option but he’s likely the best the Pats can do. Jason McCourty has been a good physical presence opposite Stephon Gilmore and he should be active in this one.

Putting Kyle Van Noy into more of a coverage mode will make the defense worse. He’s been a consistent playmaker coming off the strongside edge, but the more he’s back in coverage the less plays behind the line of scrimmage they’re going to make.

This is a tough matchup for Hightower. He can’t spy Mahomes so perhaps the best bet is to flop him and Van Noy and just let Hightower set the edge and disrupt off the line of scrimmage, especially to counter the hard running of Kareem Hunt that burned the Pats so badly last year.

But in that loss the Pats’ defense was a really good 4-11 on third down, going to show how important it will be to win on first and second down.

It’s not ideal any way you gameplan for Mahomes at this point, he’s simply doing it all and it’s a lot of fun to watch if you don’t have to think about stopping him. The best guess though is to throw a front at him that he hasn’t seen before and try to muddy his reads, especially when they go to their spread formation which they do a lot. Without the depth at the second level, the best thing might be to play more zone and force him to read the field. He can make the throws, but keeping him in the pocket ala Russell Wilson in SB49, seems the best way to go, rather than sending all-out pressure that could result in game-changing big plays.

If not for the Jags’ red zone defense last week, they would’ve lost by 40 points to Kansas City. That’s why tackling and fundamental defense will be so important overall. Not getting beat by deep balls, immediate tackling and hanging on until the field shrinks inside the 20 and then things will get easier coverage-wise for the Pats. Limit big plays, get red zone stops and that should keep things close enough for Brady and the offense.

There’s no denying this feels like it will be a last-possession, 80-point shootout no matter how well the Pats D plays, but Belichick has stopped the seemingly unstoppable before and it will be fascinating to see what he puts together this time around.