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Analysis

Five Stats to Define 2018 Patriots’ First Half

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One of my favorite things to do, especially now with half a season in the books, is stack this current Patriots team to previous teams to see what makes this one unique. Each year there are some strange outliers, either rapid improvement or decline that gives each squad their own little flare.

The 2007 team was an offensive juggernaut. The 2010 and 2011 teams gave up a ton of yards but managed it by getting a ton of takeaways. The 2017 defense, marred by injuries, was the lowest-ranked DVOA defense of the Belichick era.

Each team always has one or two interesting little nuggets that you’ll only get from someone who’s blogged about them exclusively for over a decade. So what has made the 2018 Patriots unique this far? Here are five stats where they stand out, for good and bad reasons.

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We’re Burying Rob Gronkowski Now?

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I took a quick trip to the alternate universe known as Boston sports talk radio yesterday and heard that apparently Rob Gronkowski, with just one touchdown, is on death watch now. This was echoed on twitter where Mike Giardi was making some points like these:

Yup, the guy who missed the game last week after HIS BACK LOCKED UP and has been dealing with an ankle injury since Week 3 looked labored early on in the very next game. Giardi mentions the injuries Gronk has experienced in his initial tweet, then asks a commenter if he thought Gronk’s stats would look like this. I don’t get it. How can you point out his injuries then call it a surprise his stats aren’t their usual dominant level? Would you be surprised if Gronk only had 29 catches through seven games, four of which came without Julian Edelman drawing any coverage, and two of those came also while dealing with the ankle injury? Is that a huge red flag? Personally, I’m just happy he’s not on IR and has plenty of time to get healthy before the playoffs.

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Pats Stats: Week 7 Update

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Jumping back into some Pats stats this morning and my favorite metrics are backing up most of what I’ve come to believe about this team. The improvement on the offensive side of the ball since the last time I did a stat check is impressive. The points, third down percentage and red zone percentage have all improved as Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon have assimilated into the attack.

The improvement on third down is most noticeable, as they’ve gone from 19th to 7th in just two games. The only negative for the offense are the continued turnovers, with 13 giveaways already this season. They had 12 total giveaways last season and have surpassed that number in less than half the 2018 season.

Defensively there’s still work to be done, especially on third down where they’ve continued to decline over the last two weeks from 26th to 27th. The points-per-game are really high too, but more on that in a moment.

  • Offensive Points: 30.6 – 4th
  • Defensive Points: 25.6 – 20th
  • Third Down Offense: 44.2 percent – 7th
  • Third Down Defense: 45.1 percent – 27th
  • Red Zone Offense: 69.2 – 7th
  • Red Zone Defense: 57.7 percent – 17th
  • Turnover Differential: +1 (14 takeaways, 13 giveaways)

As far as my Bend Don’t Break index, it’s a weird year:

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High Giveaway/Takeaway Rates Have Skewed 2018 Patriots Start

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If you only looked at the stats you might take a gander at Tom Brady‘s seven interceptions in seven games, realize he’s on pace for his most interceptions ever and jump to the ultimate Hot Take conclusion that the Brady decline has finally begun. Or, if you actually watched the games, you’d know that most of those were off tipped balls and really not Brady’s fault. Luckily, and somewhat surprisingly, I haven’t seen that Brady Hot Take, though I admittedly don’t watch sports TV or listen to sports radio.

This really sums up how I feel about the Patriots defense, who are once again getting thrown under the bus as they do every fall. It’s easy to talk people off the ledge when it comes to giving up yards, where the Patriots defense is 25th. Less easy are points, which even Bill Belichick has admitted is the important stat. They’re 20th in points allowed. But even more important than points is wins and the Patriots have won four-straight.

Talking people off the ledge when it comes to the defense has become exhausting for me, but this year it’s like they defensive worrywarts are back with a vengeance. Usually, these posts are a waste of time for me, because eventually things get sorted out, the defense goes on a dominant run and everyone calms their tits. But I feel like this defense is a special circumstance and a defense that I actually really like despite their flaws, which are real, but surmountable.

Let’s take a quick jump in on the defense and point out why the start to this season needs to be taken the same way Brady’s interceptions are taken, as a very specific set of circumstances that really don’t tell you who this defense is, and why those interceptions are a very big part of what has made things harder on the defense.

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It’s Finally Time for Some Pats Stats

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As a rule, I try to hold off jumping into any kind of season stats as long as I possibly can. It’s too easy to overreact to a small sample size. Sometimes those early season blips become trends, both good and bad. Other times they don’t. So you just sit back for September and then in October check in to see if the numbers back up what you think you’re seeing.

Now, with a five-game sample size, it’s finally time to dip my toe into the waters of statistics regarding the 2018 Patriots. Would the results back up what I think about this offense and defense? How do the weaknesses and strengths stack up historically? It’s always fun when it comes down to finally start tallying.

There are a collection of stats that I rely on — POINTS, TURNOVERS, THIRD DOWN and RED ZONE. I also have my own Bend Don’t Break index that measures yardage- and plays-per-drive against points- and turnovers-per-drive. Altogether I feel like these stats give me the best sense of how good a team is and I’ve got them all going back to 2001, so they also provide a historical perspective.

Let’s dive in!

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Can the Pats Defense Stop KC?

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If there’s one thing that was clear from the 2017 Patriots’ bookend losses to start and end the season, it’s that they lacked athleticism at the second level to counter the explosion of versatile offensive attacks. Plays like the read option, a nightmare for a slow linebacking corps, got the Patriots off balance early and opened up the playbook to a variety of other things like the Philly Special.

This offseason my biggest goal for the team was to get more athletic at linebacker. It looked unaddressed until Ja’whaun Bentley burst onto the scene, bringing some hope that the Pats finally had a second-level player who could make plays sideline-to-sideline. But alas, Bentley was lost for the season with a torn biceps, Dont’a Hightower has seemingly lost a step, and the Pats are dead in the crosshairs of an offense that has opened the season on fire, with the same defensive weaknesses they had last year.

The Chiefs have torched the Pats before, in 2014 and the 2017 opener, but with Patrick Mahomes under center they are playing at an even better level than either of those Alex Smith-led squads. They have speed, they have quickness, they have power and they have a quarterback that can not only throw the ball to any spot on the field, but one who excels making plays outside the pocket on the move.

The Chiefs pose a myriad of problems for every defense in the league and on paper, it would appear the Pats are really lacking what they need most to slow them down. But the Pats do have the pieces in front and on the back end to win this game, even if they do give up their share of plays. Spoiler alert — they will.

Here’s a pre-gameplan feel for what the Pats need to focus on to beat Kansas City.

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Adding Injury to Insult: Burkhead and Bentley to IR

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Remember yesterday when I dove into the All-22 and came away with one headline silver lining which was Ja’whaun Bentley looked really good in places, including his interception where he ran like we haven’t seen a linebacker run since the days of Jamie Collins. Welp, today Bentley along with Rex Burkhead were sent to IR.

It appears that Bentley was injured on the final play of the Lions game, adding another level of gut-punch to a season that has been not much fun for the past two weeks.


With the lack of speed already glaring in the middle of the field, losing Bentley like this is devastating. Putting more pressure on Hightower, Roberts and Van Noy, a trio that doesn’t need more pressure put on them. Of every defensive player, I’m not sure there’s a player I’d want to lose less. Maybe Trey Flowers but just about anyone else, including Hightower, would be less depressing, which I’d never thought I’d write as recently as 10 days ago but here we are.

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