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Patriots 53-Man Roster Projection 5.0

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The final 53-man projection before it all gets blown away to hell over the weekend. Things have already started with Jordan Richards getting traded to Atlanta for a conditional second-round pick. That opens up a spot that I’m giving to Jason McCourty. No doubt, this is viewed as a good start for the Richards Not-a-Fan Club.

Here’s how I have the rest of the 53-man playing out.

QB (2) T.Brady, B.Hoyer – NO CHANGE
RB (5) R.Burkhead, S.Michel, J.Develin, J.Hill, J.White – NO CHANGE
WR (5) C.Hogan, P.Dorsett, C.Patterson, R.McCarron, M.Slater – McCarron slips on somehow as a punt returner. Still not sure he sees any snaps at WR and could be cut for a vet punt returner pretty easily. Was surprised to see him not suit up last night so I guess he’s likely safe.
TE (3) R.Gronkowski, D.Allen, J.Hollister – NO CHANGE
C (1) D.Andrews
G (3) S.Mason, J.Thuney, T.Karras
T (4) T.Brown, M.Cannon, L.Waddle, C.Croston – Croston in for John based on his overall versatility.

DE (5) T.Flowers, A.Clayborn, D.Wise, D.Rivers, K.Davis – Okay I’m giving Davis a shot despite not seeing much out of him. Maybe he’s one of those developmental favorites and could have a role if Trey Flowers is injured for real.
DT (5) L.Guy, D.Shelton, M.Brown, A.Butler, V.Valentine – NO CHANGE
ILB(3) E.Roberts, J.Bentley, N.Grigsby – NO CHANGE
OLB(4) D.Hightower, K.VanNoy, B.King, M.Flowers – NO CHANGE
CB (5) S.Gilmore, E.Rowe, J.Jones, D.Dawson, J.Jackson – I dropped Cyrus because it looks like McCarron is the PR and J. Jones/Dawson are the slot guys. Still think he could help the team down the line.
SS (2) P.Chung, N.Ebner
FS (3) D.McCourty, D.Harmon, J.McCourty – Not sure if D-Mac can replace Richards’ special teams ability but he’s a better insurance overall as a defender.
ST (3) S.Gostkowski, R.Allen, J.Cardona

Total players: 53
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Patriots Cap Preseason with a Whatever Against the Giants

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There’s always a huge sigh of relief when the preseason is over. Injuries are the most impactful and most unknown factors of a football season, and to lose someone in August, before the games even matter, is always a downer.

Seeing Julian Edelman go down so soon after being a Super Bowl hero instantly put the team behind the eightball. But this year the 2018 Patriots were fortunate. There were certainly disappointments — Isaiah Wynn (who still isn’t on IR), Jordan Matthews and Kenny Britt being the prominent ones.

Otherwise, the Patriots will start the season with the team they wanted almost entirely intact. We can poke holes in where there could be depth problems, but every team has those. The fact once again remains, if the most key players of this Patriots team remain upright the entire season their chances at going to a toss-up Super Bowl are nearly assured.

There will be bumps in the road regardless of injuries. Remember, September football is very much an extension of the preseason. The team is still figuring out who they are exactly and what will make them unique amongst the last 18 seasons. They might look like total dogshit one week and lose a game to a team who might win four games all year.

But as the coaching kicks in, the players come together and begin playing to their strengths watch out. Those are the games where we’re reminded the New England Patriots Football Machine is still very much alive and well.

So, did we learn much of anything in the final preseason scrubfest? Were any roster spots won? Let’s take a quick look back before we totally turn the page to the roster craziness of the weekend and then the Texans.

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Patriots Preseason Week 4: Bubble About to Burst

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I have to admit, I love the annual tradition of the preseason Week 4 scrubfest against the Giants. Yes, it’s grown into an unfortunate reminder of 42 and 46, but at this point, even those games bring a little nostalgia. Though 2007 can never be topped as the worst loss ever, the two more Super Bowl wins have largely canceled those two out.

I’m not even sure I see SB52 as all that disappointing in retrospect. The team, and especially Tom Brady, once again showed why this run is so unprecedented. Despite all the hoopla about who didn’t play, about how terrible the defense was, they were still only one play from winning their third Super Bowl in four years for the SECOND time.

Only one play either way in the Super Bowl. To get that EIGHT times is just spoiled. Winning it five of the eight? Unreal.

Anyway, let’s get this last hunk of junk off our plate so we can turn the page to the campaign for number six.

While I believe 80-90% of the 53-man is already set, there are still a few spots (cough cornerback) where there is still some uncertainty and jobs to be won.

Let’s list off who’s on the bubble and who needs a big game. Here’s my current 53-man roster v4.0.

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How Will Pats Cut Corners?

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The most interesting position group for the Patriots as we head into the final preseason week with cutdowns looming this weekend is cornerback. Between the new guys that have emerged and those who are returning from injury, there’s a logjam of intriguing players with a variety of skillsets, contracts and draft statuses. We’ve seen this happen before, with it often ending up with undrafted players making the roster and others unfortunately making it on different rosters around the league.

The position is oft-maligned but the top-two starters have been entrenched from the start. Stephon Gilmore was arguably the best defensive player in training camp. You might get distracted by the catches he gave up in a preseason game against Carolina, but make no mistake, Gilmore is poised for a shutdown season, the likes of which we haven’t seen in a long time.

Next to him will be Eric Rowe, who hasn’t let go of the starting spot since last Super Bowl. Rowe is an outside guy with good size, so he’s useful for matchups as well. While the Pats will lean heavily on their three-safety, two-corner package, all five positions feature entrenched veterans. After that is where things get murky.

Let’s run down the candidates.

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Patriots Lock Up Shaq Mason

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In case you missed it yesterday morning, I had just gotten off of my weekly radio appearance in Maine having said that I’d bet Shaq Mason would likely walk to a new contract elsewhere in the offseason when the Patriots announced they had signed Mason to a new five-year extension.

It wasn’t that I thought they shouldn’t re-sign Mason, I just thought right guard is one of the easier positions to fill and that the money would likely have to go to Trey Flowers, the other remaining big-name pending free agent now. But this new contract signals a few different things, the biggest of which is that now the Pats offensive line is locked as so:

Throw in Isaiah Wynn, FA 2022, and the strong core will be in place through the inevitable Brady transition. Obviously having a veteran offensive line in place will be hugely helpful to the next QB of the NEP. Yes, there’s still a long-term question at left tackle, but that’s the only problem to worry about along the line for the next two years, and with the possibility of Wynn stepping in for Thuney, it might be even longer.

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On Britt, Dez and the Remaining Patriots Receivers

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As you’ve heard by now the Pats released Kenny Britt on Wednesday, just as most of the attention was turning toward him as the x-factor in the receiver battle. I know I was focusing fully on him as recently as yesterday morning and now here we are, a third lost receiver this summer in addition to the departures of Danny Amendola and Brandin Cooks in the offseason.

Early in camp I thought the hot takes about the receiver situation was overblown and to some extent I still do, but it’s still hard to fathom losing five receivers off the roster in seven months, even if the writing was on the wall with Amendola and Cooks was more a luxury than someone to lean upon. So what are the Pats left with? Julian Edelman, who is somehow being very much underappreciated because he’s coming off an injury and will miss the first four games. He’s not dead. He’s still the all-time leading post-season receiver and one of Tom Brady‘s most trusted targets, but for some reason that’s mostly getting swept under the rug these days.

Then there’s Chris Hogan, who led the league in yards-per-catch two seasons ago and still topped his catch total in 2017 despite missing multiple games to injury. Between Edelman and Hogan there’s a very solid base to start from, so if you’re throwing yourself off the bridge now I’m not sure how you lived through 2006 or 2013.

Remember 2013? Wes Welker and Deion Branch left, Aaron Hernandez was released after being arrested and Brady’s weaponz went back to ground zero. The talking points that offseason? Edelman hadn’t done anything since his rookie year four years earlier. Danny Amendola was too fragile. After them it was undrafted Kenbrell Thompkins and second-round pick Aaron Dobson. Josh Boyce and Austin Collie made guest appearances and that was it.

The result? The Pats offense fell from 1st overall in 2012 to… 4th overall. They were third in points and 10th in yards, en route to a 12-4 record. Edelman broke 100 catches/1,000 yards.

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Lingering Questions For Patriots Preseason Week 3

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Clarity comes quickly when training camp opens. We instantly get at least a partial picture of who’s hurt, who’s in the mix for playing significant roles on offense, defense and, most often ignored, special teams. Now we’re closing in on a month of practices with two games already in the bag, but there remain some lingering questions that could have significant implications for the 2018 Pats.

Let’s run them down as we get ready for a week three preseason game in Carolina that should provide even more of that clarity.

  1. Who’s returning punts weeks 1-4? Even after Julian Edelman returns from suspension I don’t think anyone wants to use him full time returning punts when he’s so critical to the offense. They were lucky to get by doing it with Danny Amendola last year. Thus far we’ve seen Riley McCarron as the primary punt returner and he’s done little to prove he’s anything more than a guy who can catch punts and get tackled. The favorite could be Cyrus Jones, but with a logjam at cornerback, he’s got a lot of ground to make up. Could McCarron or Jones win a roster spot solely to return punts? Just one solid return against the Panthers could make the case.
  2. Can Marcus Cannon stay healthy? I hate asking if anyone can stay healthy because this is football and a career can end in one snap due to one weird play. But Cannon missed the last nine games and playoffs last year and has been MIA at camp for a couple weeks now. I do love the idea of what the Brown-Thuney-Andrews-Mason-Cannon line can do, but I’m starting to wonder if and when we’ll actually see that group. LaAdrian Waddle is once again a guy to lean on and Ulrick John, the best of the rest, could be making a roster push.
  3. Dorsett, Britt or Decker? Anyone? We know that when the games get meaningful that a core of Edelman, Chris Hogan, Rob Gronkowski and James White is going to be very hard to stop. Mix in some Cordarrelle Patterson with gimmicky stuff and the Pats have a good core that tops most teams in the NFL. But the true ceiling of the offense, especially in the first month will depend on one of the Dorsett, Britt or Decker trio stepping up and making plays. Thus far all three have been quiet (or injured in the case of Britt) and time is running out. I kn5ow Dorsett’s going to get a ton of snaps, but I remain unconvinced he’s going to be a game-changer. Britt’s the better outside fit for the offense in my view and Decker is much needed in the slot. These last two games will tell us a lot about the direction of the offense.
  4. Roberts vs Bentley? Both Elandon Roberts and Ja’whaun Bentley are going to play this season, but whether Roberts makes a third-year leap or Bentley translates his preseason play to the regular season will determine if the Patriots have solved their middle field athleticism problems. The thinking man’s analysis of how to attack the Pats centers on the middle linebacker spot, a position Mike Lombardi wrote defines the speed of a defense. Last year, they were undermanned and slow and got exposed by the Eagles.
  5. Second-Year Defenders Lead the Way? Last season the pass rush was devastated, losing Rob Ninkovich, Chris Long and Jabaal Sheard. Injuries didn’t help and forced Dietrich Wise and Adam Butler into significant roles. Now, with Derek Rivers back and looking like the top pick he was, these second-year players must ignite the pass rush. Potentially aided by a more aggressive attack under Brian Flores, along with the disruptive Adrian Clayborn and contract-year Trey Flowers, this is the group that must get after opposing quarterbacks. How well they do will have a huge impact on how good this defense is for this year and into the future.