Analysis

Pats Should Prioritize Extensions for Edelman and Solder

February 16, 2017 by Mike Dussault

There’s been plenty of analysis about which free agents the Patriots should retain this offseason, but another major piece of the puzzle will be extending players to either balance out their cap hit and/or prevent them from hitting free agency next offseason. Two players that are prime for extensions are left tackle Nate Solder and Julian Edelman.

Solder bounced back from a biceps tear in 2015 to hold down Tom Brady‘s blindside for the Super Bowl run. He didn’t have his best game against Dwight Freeney in Houston, but that doesn’t take away from the stability that Solder brought this season.

Solder’s cap hit for 2017 is due to be over $11 million dollars, a number the Pats would love to get down. Solder’s had two contracts with the Patriots, his initial rookie deal and then a two-year extension he signed in 2015 that guaranteed him $20 million.

He’ll turn 29 this April, so Solder still has plenty of good football left in him. The Patriots have already agreed not to use the franchise tag on him in 2018, so now’s a good time to take a look at a deal that would make sense for both sides. With the rest of the starting offensive line locked up for at least the next two seasons (David Andrews is a RFA next offseason), another two year extension that spreads some of his cap hit out would make sense for Solder.

Should Pats Ditch Shea McClellin?

February 15, 2017 by Mike Dussault

Shea McClellin signed a three-year, $9 million contract last offseason, the biggest contract the Patriots awarded to an external free agent in 2016. He ended the season having played just 37 percent of the defensive snaps and 49 percent of the special teams snaps, logging 16 solo tackles, two fumble recoveries and one sack.

That’s not great production for that much money and in 2017 McClellin is currently slotted to be the 10th highest-paid Patriot. The Pats could save $1.6 million in cap space if they were to cut McClellin. Should they when there’s already a lot of uncertainty with some key front seven players?

I have to admit, I was not a fan of McClellin’s early in the season. While we thought he’d play a sub linebacker role, he started out as more of an edge hybrid where he was ineffective. His athleticism was clear, but he lacked much “pop” to his game and just didn’t really do anything to stand out.

A Closer Look at Patriots Defensive Personnel and Roles

February 15, 2017 by Mike Dussault

Each year the Patriots defensive schemes slowly evolve over the course of the year and each year is unique. I always pray that people can get past the simplistic 3-4 vs. 4-3 debate which is archaic and meaningless now.

The Patriots trend of heavily using sub defense continued this season, as did their evolution to incorporating more Cover-2 Zone as the season progressed. The line between defensive ends and outside linebackers continues to blur, while the importance of having three good safeties and three good corners has become more imperative.

Here’s a look at some of the formations the Patriots utilized in the Super Bowl and what they might be able to tell us about their offseason plan of attack.

Patriots Internal Free Agents: Defense Edition

February 15, 2017 by Sam Hollister

Coming off their fifth Super Bowl victory, the New England Patriots are in tremendous shape cap-wise, as they have right around 62 million dollars in cap space heading into the 2017 offseason. This cap room gives the Patriots incredible financial flexibility, and lets Bill Belichick, Nick Caserio, and co be as aggressive as they please in free agency. Of course, the Patriots do have several important free agents of their own that need new contracts, with many of them falling on the defensive side of the ball, including essential pieces in Dont’a Hightower and Malcolm Butler (although Butler is a restricted free agent), so lets take a look at the Patriots defensive free agents.

Dont’a Hightower

Age: 26
Projected contract (via Spotrac): 4 years, 40 million
Other notable free agent inside linebackers: Lawrence Timmons, Malcolm Smith, D’Qwell Jackson

In nearly every Patriot fans mind, locking up defensive captain Dont’a Hightower is the Patriots #1 priority entering free agency, and if Jeff Howe is correct, it appears the Patriots organization feels the same way. Yesterday, Howe, on 98.5 the Sports Hub, said, “[The Patriots] definitely want to keep [Hightower]. He is their priority”. That is a good sign, but this situation does not appear to be one in which Hightower would be willing to take a home-town discount to remain in New England. Howe went on to say, “Hightower wants to stay, but the Patriots aren’t going to be able to really skimp on his contract. They’re going to have to pay him top dollar.”

Hightower will surely be looking for a contract that exceeds the one former teammate Jamie Collins signed with Cleveland in January. The Brown inked Collins to a four year, 50 million dollar deal, with 26.4 million of that guaranteed, so it seems like any contract discussion with Hightower will probably begin at that figure and work its way up. I see Hightower signing a contract in the range of 4-5 years for 60 or so million dollars, with at least 30 million of that guaranteed; those amounts are nearly exactly the same as the ones in the contract Luke Kuechly, the NFL’s premier inside linebacker, signed prior to the 2015 season for 5 years, 62 million, and 35 million guaranteed. Luckily, the Patriots have the financial flexibility to make this sort of contract work without compromising the rest of the roster, so I would be really surprised if Belichick let Hightower leave New England.

Similar to the contract discussions with Devin McCourty two offseason’s ago, I think Hightower is the type of player Belichick and the Patriots will do whatever it takes to keep in a Patriot uniform, whether it be by a long-term extension or via the franchise tag, which would cost the Patriots about 15 million to retain Hightower and would allow the two sides another year to negotiate a new contract.

Patriots Internal Free Agents: Offensive Addition

February 14, 2017 by Sam Hollister

Coming off their fifth Super Bowl victory, the New England Patriots are in tremendous shape cap-wise, as they have right around 62 million dollars in cap space heading into the 2017 offseason. This cap room gives the Patriots incredible financial flexibility, and lets Bill Belichick, Nick Caserio, and co be as aggressive as they please in free agency. Of course, the Patriots do have several important free agents of their own that need new contracts, and while the majority of those names fall on the defensive side of the ball, the Patriots still have a couple question marks regarding free agents on the offensive side of the ball. Lets take a look at those notable free agents-to-be.

Martellus Bennett:

Age: 30
Projected contract (via Spotrac): 3 years, 18 million (6 million average annual salary)
Other notable free agent tight end: Jared Cook, Jack Doyle

In a very weak free agent class at tight end, Bennett’s first priority for this offseason is probably getting paid. This narrative is definitely aided by Bennett’s comments following the Super Bowl, in which he jubilantly declared “You know they overpay Super Bowl Champions!” (he did later clarified on Twitter that he was joking, but I don’t know about that). Another quote from Bennett that is rather indicative of what he is thinking regarding his upcoming free agency is, “You come to New England to win, not for the checks.” The pessimist in me thinks that because Bennett got his ring, he is now looking for the major payday that comes following winning the Super Bowl. While it is impossible to tell where Bennett will end up, it sure seems like he is looking to cash in, and it also seems like the Patriots will not be the team to give him the hefty contract he seeks, despite growing concerns over the long-term health of Rob Gronkowski.

Gronkowski counts nearly 30 million against the cap in the next three seasons, so it is hard to imagine a scenario in which the Patriots dole out a contract with an average annual value of around 6 million dollars to another tight end. That just seems like too high of a price for Gronk insurance, especially when considering the stacked pool of tight ends in the 2017 draft, with players like OJ Howard, David Njoku, and Evan Engram all drawing comparisons to current elite NFL tight ends in Greg Olsen and Jordan Reed.

LeGarrette Blount:

Age: 30
Projected contract (via Spotrac): 3 years, 13 million (4.4 million average annual salary)
Other notable free agent running backs: Leveon Bell, Latavius Murray, Eddie Lacy

Blount is an incredibly interesting case to consider. Last offseason, he essentially had no interest whatsoever on the free agent market, and ended up signing with the Patriots on April 12th, 34 days after free agency opened. The Patriots were able to resign Blount for a base salary of just 1 million, an absolute steal considering the season he had in 2016, in which he led all RB’s in touchdowns and finished 8th in rushing yards in the NFL. Because of his success this season, Blount figures to garner far more interest in free agency this season, but the Patriots will most likely not be one of the teams in pursuit. Combine Blount’s age (30) with the lack of value Belichick places on the running back position in free agency (especially aging backs) and the current backfield situation with both James White and Dion Lewis returning in 2017, and it sure seems like unless Blount is willing to take a rather large pay-cut, his time in New England is done.

James Develin:

Age: 28
Other notable free agent fullbacks: Kyle Juszczyk, Patrick DiMarco, Zach Line

Develin resigned with the Patriots last offseason on a one year deal worth up to 750,000 with incentives, and it seems like a similar, albeit slightly more lucrative, contract should be enough for Develin to remain a Patriot. Currently, there are only 6 fullbacks in the NFL that count more than a million against their team’s salary caps, with the highest paid fullbacks in the league, Anthony Sherman and Ryan Hewitt, earning around 2.3 million in average annual salary. With arguably the three best fullbacks in the league hitting free agency in 2017 (Juszczyk, DiMarco, and Develin), it would not be surprising if those numbers are surpassed, so Develin’s potential contract is probably going to rely mostly on the type of contracts Juszczyk and DiMarco sign. Despite this, it certainly appears likely Develin will end up in New England again because of the importance he has in the Patriots running game.

Michael Floyd:

Age: 27
Other notable free agent wide receivers: Alshon Jeffery, Terrelle Pryor, Desean Jackson, Pierre Garcon

Floyd has been vocal about his desire to return to New England, saying in the days leading up to the Super Bowl, “I love it here. I hope to be back in Foxborough. I hope that I can make that happen, for sure.’’ Floyd was inactive for both the Super Bowl and AFC Championship Game due to a crowded depth chart at receiver, with the coaching staff opting for Malcolm Mitchell over Floyd. However, because of the good possibility that Danny Amendola will be cut, seeing as he counts nearly 8 million against the 2017, Floyd might have a spot in the receiving corps in 2017. Floyd has shown his ability to be a productive NFL receiver, as he has racked up at least 800 yards every year since his rookie year (not including this season), highlighted by his 1,041 yard sophomore season. With his value severely diminished due to his DUI arrest, it appears a return to New England for Floyd is likely.

Why Did Belichick De-Elvis the Hot Jacket?

February 9, 2017 by Mike Dussault

It was quite the banner weekend for PatsPropaganda, even before James White scored the touchdown in overtime to win Super Bowl 51. It all started when old friend Kyle Brandt mentioned my Belichick Hoodie Database on Good Morning Football. Soon after I was being interviewed by USA Today about it, and the day after that I was contacted by ABC News to be interviewed for a national news feature on Belichick’s hoodie.

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What everyone of course wanted to know? What Belichick should wear in the Super Bowl. My choice was the 2016 Blue Hoodie, as ABC mentions at the end of their segment. He was 3-0 in it on the season, including the win in Denver and both playoff victories.

All signs pointed to that direction.

Breaking Down Trey Flowers’ Clutch Super Bowl Dominance

February 8, 2017 by Mike Dussault

Everyone’s favorite storyline involving the New England Patriots’ defense headed into the Super Bowl was that they hadn’t played anyone and would be exposed by Matt Ryan and the potent Falcons offense. Ryan certainly made his share of plays, but after giving up a third quarter touchdown that made it 28-3, the Patriots defense went into shutdown mode, cementing their place alongside the four other Super Bowl-winning Patriots’ defenses that came through in the clutch.

2016 breakout star Trey Flowers had a lot to do with it.

Most surprising was that a defense that had just 34 sacks in 16 games this season, just a little over two per game, the Pats defense had five sacks and 12 QB hits on just 23 pass dropbacks by Ryan. Trey Flowers led the way with 2.5 sacks and a staggering five quarterback hits.

Where was this kind of pass rush all season? Let’s take a closer look at how Flowers’ performance in Super Bowl 51.