Analysis

Five First Impressions of the Falcons

January 25, 2017 by Mike Dussault

The extra week off gives a little extra time to jump into some more in-depth film review of the opponent, so I’ve enjoyed the chance to take a look at the Falcons. Admittedly, I get so focused on the Patriots during the season it’s hard to keep track of what every other team is doing, especially in the NFC.

First, the obvious thing to get out of the way is that the Falcons’ offense is explosive. Julio Jones and Devontae Freeman are two players that jump off the screen. Defensively, they’re fast and do a fair amount of rotation up front to keep players fresh. Vic Beasley and his 15.5 sacks are the biggest overall threat.

Here’s what Belichick had to say about the Falcons overall:

“I’d say the stamp on the team, the thing that I would notice the most is just the speed, the team speed that the Falcons have,” Belichick said. “They have a lot of fast guys. Defensively they close up space very quickly. Their linebackers run well. Their defensive line, although they have a couple of big, strong, physical guys in there, overall they have usually nine or 10 players on the field that I would say are fast. They’re either as fast or faster than probably what the average speed of their position is in the league. I’d say that’s a big stamp that (Dimitroff) has put on the team.

We saw plenty of matchups against both a fast defense (Colts 2000s) and the Seahawks scheme so I expect the Patriots will have a good idea how to attack them. The Pats certainly have the heavy personnel option to test their physicality, but there are plenty of favorable coverage matchups to exploit as well.

Here are my five other initial impressions of Atlanta:

Don’t Bet on a Super Bowl 51 Shootout

January 24, 2017 by Mike Dussault

Sports Illustrated gave an early preview of their Super Bowl cover this week and as you can see below the headline matches what pretty much everyone has been writing/thinking: SHOOTOUT!

This week’s @SInow cover. pic.twitter.com/7QSBRYhWzW

— Christopher Price (@cpriceNFL) January 24, 2017

Yes, the Falcons have put up 80 points in their two playoff games combined and broke 38 points seven other times this season. The Patriots are no slouches either, having put up 70 points in their two playoff games. The opening over/under was 58.5, the highest over/under in Super Bowl history, but I wouldn’t go betting the over just yet.

Pats Posits: Calm Before the AFCCG Storm

January 21, 2017 by Mike Dussault

Today’s the day to get your mind right and mentally prepare for what’s about to go down tomorrow. There’s been plenty to digest over the last few days, here’s a few thoughts on some of the more interesting bits of news.

After thinking about it more and more, I think we might see a Cover 2 Zone game from the Patriots defense instead of matching up Butler on Brown as most seem to be expecting. Why? The Pats moved to a lot more Cover 2 in the second half of the season and got pretty good at it. Bell is the one who scares me the most, so if they run nickel personnel with three safeties, which means Patrick Chung is in the box or slot, they’d not only have a pretty stout front but they’d have help over the top of both corners on Brown. This also sets up a fence of five defenders who can come downhill not only on Bell’s runs, but on the underneath passes that I’m betting the Steelers attack with. This strategy relies heavily on Patrick Chung’s ability both as a tough run stopper but an effective cover man. There’s also some flexibility to put McCourty up close to the LOS as he often did against Houston.
Another thing the zone coverage does is it floods the flat with defenders who can tackle Antonio Brown after the catch. If the Patriots play their usual sound fundamental game, with good tackling and no runs-after-catch that go 30-plus, the Steelers should struggle to maintain their offensive output.
If I was Pittsburgh’s offensive coordinator my bread and butter would be to attack the Patriots defense underneath with Bell and Brown. There was plenty of talk on the Sports Hub yesterday that the Patriots can’t matchup covering running backs in the passing game, well Cover 2 is just the answer to that. If that’s how the game unfolds it will all come down to tackling, which we know the Patriots are almost always excellent at. What we’d want to see if Bell catching the pass then getting blasted by the zone defenders across the line.
If I was Pittsburgh’s defensive coordinator I’d scheme to attack the middle of the offensive line. The critical component is getting Brady off his game early, at least planting a seed of doubt. The Patriots are unfazed if they have to punt a couple times early on in the game. Really, as Mike Lombardi once said, the start of the game is a race to Belichick, for him to find out how you’re going to play the game. Once they figure it out they’re going to move the ball. The Steelers must vary their approach on each drive, including going to something totally different after halftime before going back to what was working in the first half. Eric Mangini laid it all out here and it’s the only way to stop Tom Brady.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZ4oXvjNQ_w&t=1s
Adam Schefter mentioned that Chip Kelly was meeting with Belichick this week. Interesting move and of course I’d be more than find having Kelly join the staff for a season in a consultant type role. Let’s face it, a year with the Pats can do just about any coaches career good. How would it work now that Josh McDaniels is staying? That’s what’s unclear. By now McDaniels, Brady and the offense have their relationships down pat. Still, a fresh innovative voice like Kelly’s is what’s needed to stay ahead of the curve and that’s always what the Patriots are trying to do. Could it mean the return to more rapid no huddle? It would seem so.
The flu has been going around the Steelers locker room this week which sucks for them. I’m reminded of the 2006 AFCCG when the Patriots had a similar epidemic prior to playing in the dome of Indy. The Pats still came out strong but were totally useless in the second half, getting totally dominated. Have to wonder how the Steelers’ energy levels will be as the game drags on into the fourth quarter, especially as temperatures drop in Foxborough.
Lastly, Tedy Bruschi will be the honorary captain tomorrow night, and the Pats are 8-0 in games where they’ve honored Bru. I’ve been saying all week this feels like a throwback matchup and which better throwback player to have lead the charge? I still think it’s amazing that Bruschi’s “How do we feel about… Awww yeah!” team chant is still in effect, now with Matthew Slater usually leading the cheer. How many teams still use something like that eight years after a player retired? Funny little tidbit from Patriots dynasty history.

Which Hoodie Should Bill Belichick Wear in the AFC Championship?

January 19, 2017 by Mike Dussault

It’s that time of the week again, when I take a look at the history of the game and the opponent and try to figure out what Bill Belichick should wear.

Last week, Belichick went against my prediction, which was admittedly flawed, going with the 2016 Blue Hoodie and he didn’t cut anything off of it. On the season, Belichick was .5-0 in the 2016 Blue Hoodie, wearing it for just the first half of the Week 16 matchup against the Jets.

Should he stick with that Blue Hoodie or change gears in the AFC Championship? And what’s he worn against the Steelers in AFC Championships past? There’s a ton of data to digest, let’s dive in!

Breaking Down Tom Brady’s Conference Championship Struggles

January 18, 2017 by Mike Dussault

The conference championship is the best football game of the year. It lacks the exhibition feel of the Super Bowl, is often out in miserable elements and feels as close to “real” football as we can get these days. Yet somehow it hasn’t always been Tom Brady’s best game.

The Patriots have played in 10 AFC Championship games since 2001 and will set a record with their sixth-straight on Sunday. They won six of those 10, but have lost three of their last four. Tom Brady‘s had his share of struggles, which is of course somewhat understandable since you’re usually playing the best team in your conference, and often one that is familiar with you.

Here’s the breakdown of Brady’s stats in the AFC Championship.

Brady’s career completion percentage is 63.8 percent, which drops to 61.3 percent in the AFC Championship. His career QB rating is 97.2, which drops off a cliff to 80.7 in the AFC Championship.

But again, each game is unique, so let’s take a quick look at why Brady could be due for a bounceback this Sunday.

Patriots Tuesday 10 Pack: AFCCG Edition

January 17, 2017 by Mike Dussault

After reflecting upon this year’s AFC Championship game — the matchups, the history, etc — I can’t help but feel like it’s a throwback game to the early 2000’s playoffs. That both intrigues and frightens me. During those 2003 and 2004 playoff runs you knew the Pats would have to play their best games and somehow they always did.

It’s also somewhat reminiscent of the 2011 and 2012 AFC Championships against the Ravens. You knew those would be wars and both games lived up to the hype. I can’t help but feel like this game is going to be the same way. Back and forth the entire game, coming right down to the very end where whoever makes the last play will win.

So yeah, exciting, but terrifying.

Here’s a bunch of thoughts on all things Pats as I get back into the flow of the week…

Patriots Will Face Steelers In the AFC Championship

January 15, 2017 by Mike Dussault

The Patriots will host the Steelers in the AFC Championship next Sunday, after Pittsburgh unleashed LeVeon Bell (170 yards rushing) and Antonio Brown (108 yards receiving) on the Chiefs, winning 18-16.

It will be the third time the two teams have met in AFCCG (2001, 2004), both of which saw the Pats win both on the road. This will be the Steelers first chance to return the favor, travelling to Gillette Stadium where they’ve won just once with Ben Roethlisberger, in 2008 against Matt Cassell. USA betting sites have the Pats as early favorites.

The Steelers with Big Ben are 3-7 against the Pats, but they’ve got two of the best weapons in the NFL. No lead is safe, they can score quick. And they’re just the kind of physical team, with a healthy hate of the Patriots, that will

These are the two best teams in the AFC and they’ve been on a collision course for another playoff meeting for a while. They still haven’t met in the playoffs since the 2004 AFC Championship.

They’re due for another classic and we’re going to get it. This will be a sixty minute game, if it doesn’t go to overtime. So start preparing yourself for the stress of it all now.

My early thoughts on the keys for the Patriots: