Analysis

Patriots Tuesday 10 Pack

January 3, 2017 by Mike Dussault

Back in the Ministry of PatsPropaganda today and excited to get back into the daily blog flow after a nice two week vacation. Hard to believe the 2016 regular season is over. In case you missed the Posits on Monday they had plenty of thoughts on the season overall.

As 20 teams start their offseasons there’s been plenty of news as teams blow things up and start anew. Luckily for the Pats this week we can take a bit of breather, focus on the regular season a bit and wait to see how this weekend’s slate of games play out.

Here’s what’s on my mind from the last couple days of Pats news…

Patriots Thursday 10 Pack

December 29, 2016 by Mike Dussault

Greetings from vacationland! No film review of the Jets game this week, but after catching up on LeGarrette Blount wired for sound, it’s time to weigh in on all things Pats.

Hard to believe another regular season is going to wrap up this weekend and then another chapter in the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady playoff history books will be written.

1. Congrats to our old pal Fitzy who will be heading to WAAF in the New Year! It’s always fun seeing amazing things happen to great people. But in other media news it sucked reading that Christopher Price might no longer be covering the Pats beat for WEEI. I can’t really imagine Patriots coverage without Price, who has a great sense of Patriots/New England sports history. Wishing all the best to him and hopefully he’ll stick around the Pats. His coverage is vital, along with Mike Reiss, Tom E. Curran and Jeff Howe, my must-read Pats crew.

2. Seemed like a mad dash this week to either minimize the Patriots success this year or find a way they might be beatable. Who are the Patriots AFRAID to play!? Obviously the unfortunate injury to Derek Carr transformed the AFC landscape with homefield still up for grabs. That leaves the Steelers and the Chiefs as the major threats. Making those two play each other in the divisional round is ideal. Of course there are ways that either could beat the Patriots in Foxborough. The Chiefs played them tough in last year’s AFCDG. The Steelers have the two best weapons in conference and the second-best quarterback. The real question — do the Chiefs/Steelers have the perfect game in them that it would take to knock then Pats off at home? I’m not sure. While I am sure the Pats offense will put up some points.

A Look Back at Belichick’s Masterful 2016 Offseason

December 26, 2016 by Sam Hollister

It was yet another game in which the Patriots were able to cruise from start to finish, as they racked up their 13th win and moved one step closer to acquiring the #1 seed in the AFC. A 14-2 record and the #1 seed appears very likely, which is an incredible achievement for any team, yet the accomplishment probably won’t elicit more than a casual shrug of approval out of the majority of Patriot Nation, along with some snide remark about how they really should have been 15-1. We have been blessed as Patriot fans to witness the greatest run of any team in the history of the NFL, yet it is still important to appreciate just how they are able to reach the level of play we have seen this year. With that being said, let’s take a look back at the (masterful) 2016 offseason and how it managed to rebuild and retool the Patriots, setting them up for the success they are currently achieving.

Belichick the GM was nearly perfect on his moves this offseason, with his first acquisition being the signing of Chris Hogan away from the Buffalo Bills on a front-loaded 3 year, 12 million dollar offer sheet that the Bills were simply unable to match. Hogan, who never had more than 450 yards in this first three seasons in the NFL, has racked up 653 yards on 34 catches to go along with a league-leading 19.2 yards per catch in 2016. Hogan has brought a viable, consistent deep threat to a Patriot offense that had lacked one since the day Randy Moss last put on a Patriot uniform. That is not to say Hogan in anyway resembles Moss and his capabilities, but what Hogan is able to do for the offense by stretching the field and not allowing the opposing secondary to key on the underneath crossing routes fills a role the Patriots have not had since the Moss days.

A Closer Look at Flea Flicking Off the Ravens

December 18, 2016 by Rick Starke

We all know how much better the Patriots running game has been this year than last year. With three games to go, there have been more rushing touchdowns and more first downs than last seasons full year totals. Leading the way from a statistical standpoint has been Legarrette Blount. Actually leading the way has been the offensive line under the returning Dante Scarnecchia, and an infusion of young, hungry, and mean players on the inside of the line.

This season’s running game has been a welcome change from the abysmal ground game in 2015. Play actions feel more effective. Comparing what statistics are available, Tom Brady was 6th in Football Outsiders DVOA in 2015 on play action passes, though only 21st in yardage differential on passes without play action. and this year has the highest passer rating in the league on play action passes, with a 125.0 (2016 DVOA numbers for play action aren’t available yet). That’s a great effect of the running game.

Numbers start to look that good when opposing teams are heavily committed to stopping the run, as opposed to barely caring if you hand the ball off…and when your running game has well-coached teams committed to the point of overpursuit, you start getting away with beautifully ballsy plays like this:

This is the first half of the flea flicker that went to Chris Hogan for 28 yards. One of those sexy-not sexy plays that doesn’t make a highlight reel during the week, because it didn’t score, and wasn’t a turnover. Stay hypnotized by that play for a moment. Here is the All-22 of the same play, watch the action of Baltimore’s defense up front:

Eight Ravens in pursuit. Great read by CJ Mosley to follow when David Andrews peeled off his block to go back and protect Brady, and the coverage was actually pretty solid down field. Hogan beat his 1 on 1, and Malcolm Mitchell was bracketed by a corner and safety. The Ravens played this as well as possible, but were still hopelessly out of position up front. In 2015, this play probably has some devastating hit to Brady, or the pitch back to Brady is intercepted for a touchdown, or some other ugly result. Instead, we have probably the longest flea flicker pitch in history (Seriously! Look at that! Blount starts in the middle of the field and ends up a good 5-6 yards outside the hash before that pitch! Insane!), and one more thing for opposing defenses to have to worry about when overcommitting to the run.

This was beautiful, and I sure am looking forward to the next development off of the success of the running game.

Young Guards Keying Patriots Resurgent Ground Attack

December 14, 2016 by Sam Hollister

Save for two terrible plays on special teams, the Patriots put forth their best overall effort of the season Monday night against Baltimore, led by a defensive effort unrivaled by anything we have seen out of this unit thus far in 2016, and, of course, Tom Brady and his 406 yards passing and three touchdowns. But an after-thought of sorts of the performance was the Patriots ability to run the football against the best rush defense in the NFL. Entering the Week 13 contest, the Ravens defense led the NFL in yards allowed, rush yards allowed, and rush yards allowed per game – not to mention they led the NFL in points allowed per game. In short, running the ball figured to be a tall task for the Patriots Monday night, especially considering it has been a long time since the Patriots have had a rushing attack of a high enough caliber to have success against the best rush defenses in football.

Prior to the matchup, the Ravens allowed only 3.4 yards per carry and just 75.5 yards per game on the ground. The Patriots rushed for 94 yards on the ground, and averaged 3.7 yards per carry, and while an uptick of only 0.3 yards more per carry doesn’t seem like a lot, consider this: the Ravens held Lesean McCoy and the Bills to a mere 2.7 YPC, Latavius Murray and the Raiders to just 3.3 YPC, and Leveon Bell and the Steelers to only 2.0 YPC. In fact, LeGarrette Blount averaged 4.0 YPC against Baltimore on Monday, more than all three backs I mentioned. He even put up a higher average than NFL rushing leader Ezekiel Elliot did against the Ravens in their matchup earlier this season (Elliot averaged 3.9 YPC).

Countdown to Patriots-Ravens MNF

December 12, 2016 by Mike Dussault

I kinda enjoyed having a stress-free Sunday yesterday, especially with all the holiday stuff that has to get done this time of year. But now, staring down the barrel of a full busy work day that will be capped off with a major Patriots-Ravens game on Monday Night Football and I’m starting to feel the stress.

Right now, it’s all in the Patriots hands. Win the next two and they could very well lock up the top seed in the AFC. And after yesterday is there really anyone who truly believes the Patriots don’t have an excellent shot at not only getting to the Super Bowl but beating any NFC team once they get there?

But there’s still four games to go, a quarter of the season, and there could be plenty of twists and turns awaiting us, especially against our two biggest rivals…the two teams that stood between us and the Super Bowl four of the last five years in the AFC Championship.

Yes, the Patriots have three games in the next 13 days. In that time the expectations for their playoff run will be set, and I just can’t wait to see tonight how they come out. Is this a peaking Patriots team that we’ve seen for many of the last 15 seasons? Or is it a fading one like injuries dictated last season?

Few thoughts from the Sunday action and Deflategate Part Deux…

The Brave New(ish) World of the Patriots Offense

December 9, 2016 by Rick Starke

Earlier this week on PatsProp, both Sam and Adam set the table for the “real” season. Go read their articles if you’ve missed them, they’re great. With the table set, let’s pass some hors d’oeuvres:

We’ve been here before. It’s week 13. The Patriots are 10-2, and in the drivers seat for homefield advantage throughout the playoffs as long as they take care of their own business (ICYMI: The Chiefs beat the Raiders Thursday night). Tom Brady is putting up MVP calibur numbers. Bill Belichick made a trade several weeks before that made everyone’s head spin. and the Patriots offense is loaded with guys that have played together for years, make the same reads, think the same thoughts, and answer questions ambiguously.

Wait a minute…who is on the offense?

Or, more accurately, who played a major role in this offense exactly one year ago, and what has changed?