Analysis

Malcolm Mitchell and the myth of Mean Old Tom (Brady)

December 8, 2016 by Rick Starke

It seems the Patriots draft a new wide receiver or two every year.

Every year, it seems Tom Brady and new receiver of the year cannot get on the same page, Brady loses confidence in that receiver, that receiver ends up in everyone’s dog house, and is then cut, traded, or otherwise run out of town.

Early in this season, we saw Malcolm Mitchell look like he and Jimmy Garoppolo were on the same page, with Mitchell being targeted 7 times in 6 quarters, with 3 catches. Mitchell had two more targets from Jacoby Brissett in week 3, with one catch for 27 yards. He showed flashes of potential in his first preseason game before dislocating his elbow.

Based on evidence from the past with rookies AND veterans across several seasons (brief list: Chad Jackson, Brandon Tate, Aaron Dobson, Josh Boyce, Taylor Price, Chad Ochocinco, Joey Galloway) flaming out with Tom Brady, I was cautious with my hope in the Patriots developing a new, young weapon in their outside receiving corp. Sure, all those other guys went on to do nothing else in the league after their Patriots careers, but I wasn’t alone in this fear of yet another flame out. This other guy I know had something to say about it in his own cautiously sarcastic fashion:

Gonna suck when Brady comes back and hates Malcolm Mitchell isn’t it? I kid. I’m kidding. I think.

— Mike Dussault (@PatsPropaganda) September 23, 2016

How the 2016 Gronk-less Pats Stack Up to 2012 & 2013

December 6, 2016 by Sam Hollister

The news of Rob Gronkowski’s third trip to season-ending Injured Reserve has caused quite a stir within Patriot Nation, and to a lesser extent the entire league. While the news has elicited some experts to declare the AFC suddenly wide open, other analysts have gone the opposite direction, choosing to not sound the alarm quite yet, keeping faith in the greatest quarterback-coach tandem in the NFL’s history to overcome the loss of arguable their most important player (save for TB12).

The Patriots win-loss record without Gronkowski is not great; they are just 14-5 without him in the regular season, and 1-2 in the postseason, which certainly supports the belief that the Patriots cannot win the Super Bowl without Gronkowski. Adding to this narrative is Brady’s statistics with and without the prolific tight end. With a healthy Gronkowski, Brady’s completion percentage is 65.3%, with a 7.9 yards per attempt average and a 103.5 passer rating. However, with Gronkowski sidelined, Brady’s completion percentage dips to 57.3%, while averaging just 6.5 yards per attempt.

The most alarming measure is his passer rating; it dips over twenty points to just 82.4, which would rank 34th in the NFL this season, behind fellow Patriot quarterback Jacoby Brissett (83.9) and only one spot above Geno Smith. Effectively, Tom Brady turns into a third-string quarterback when Gronkowski is unable to play.

Patriots Tuesday 10 Pack

December 6, 2016 by Mike Dussault

One of my favorite things in life is ending up in a conversation with another Patriots fan who has no idea that I have been faithfully blogging about the team for nine years. That was the case on Monday when I jumped into a conversation with a couple unknowing people at my real job and listened their deeply held beliefs about this Patriots team.

One of them wasn’t feeling the magic this year, the other thought the offense looked terrible against the Rams and that the only hard game left was Miami. The conversation ended before I could interject any of my own analysis, and really they didn’t seem to care, even though I could at least give them some perspective that they both badly needed.

So my frustration from that conversation has spilled over here into the Tuesday 10 Pack, where I vent about the Monday over-reactors as the dust settles from win number 10.

Here we go…

Report: Gronk Needs Third Back Surgery, Out Indefinitely

December 1, 2016 by Mike Dussault

And here I was just thinking my post about whether or not the Pats should worry about their injury situations was dumb because Edelman only missed practice for the birth of his kid and Brady was suiting up for practice, when one of those tweets that instantly makes you sick came across my timeline…

More on Gronk from #NFL sources: Suffered a ruptured disk vs. #Seahawks, surgery in L.A. Expected to be out eight weeks.

— Vic Carucci (@viccarucci) December 1, 2016

First things first. You have to feel terrible for Gronk. We can get into what it means for the Patriots Super Bowl chances, but this is a guy who’s had at least three back surgeries, multiple forearm surgeries, an ACL reconstruction and high ankle surgery all before he turns 30. This is too much for any human body to take, and yes, we all hope he comes back and plays football for the team we love, but let’s remember Gronk’s gotta live with this body well past his football playing days.

So yes, I’m sick for Gronk and can only hope that he somehow bounces back from this and is okay and isn’t, you know, in a wheelchair before he’s 40.

Time to Worry About the Patriots Injuries?

December 1, 2016 by Mike Dussault

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By now you’re probably sick of reading it here on the blog because I’ve been beating it like a drum all season — all that really matters for the Patriots are injuries. We can do countless hours of film study or discuss why Belichick decided to trade most of his defense away or search for a weakness on offense, but at the end of the season if the Pats are healthy, they’re probably going to the Super Bowl.

Of course, some Pats matter more than others, no offense to anyone, and the top of that list is Tom Brady, Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski which is why Wednesday’s injury report made me barf a little bit. Add in Martellus Bennett and their two best special teamers, and I’m wondering if we should just roll out the JV offense against the Rams and give those key guys a week of rest before the upcoming AFC showdowns with Baltimore and Denver.

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Now Brady, obviously the most important, isn’t that concerning. His radio appearance on Monday was re-assuring. And I’m pretty sure you’d have to remove a limb to keep him out of a game.

But Edelman’s been dealing with that foot injury for well over a year now, not to mention multiple surgeries. Then you add in this…

Taking a Look at the Patriots Most Improved Player

November 29, 2016 by Sam Hollister

The Patriots eked out another nail-biting victory Sunday in East Rutherford, improving to 9-2 on the year and keeping pace with the Oakland Raiders for the top spot in the AFC. While Brady and the Patriots offense struggled at times to get going, the offensive line did a nice job against the formidable front seven of the Jets, headlined by elite talents Sheldon Richardson and Muhammad Wilkerson, complemented by the 2015 7th-overall pick Leonard Williams.

Tackles Nate Solder and Marcus Cannon led the way to the unit’s second clean sheet of the year, as they allowed no sacks and only surrendered four QB hits. Cannon’s play thus far in 2016 has been a revelation when compared to how abysmally he played last season. Cannon was one of the main culprits in the complete and utter failure by the offensive line against the Broncos in the AFC Championship Game in January, and in my mind, cost the Patriots a chance at a Super Bowl. After that game, I hoped to never see Cannon don a Patriots uniform again, but to his credit, he has enjoyed an incredible renaissance in his sixth season in the NFL.

Patriots Tuesday Ten Pack

November 29, 2016 by Mike Dussault

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It’s hard to believe we’re closing in on the final quarter of the 2016 regular season. Football is getting cold and meaningful and before long we’ll be gearing up for another playoff run. As I wrote in the Posits yesterday, we’re getting so close to the end of the line without any major injuries it has me even more nervous.

Let’s hope the good health continues. We all know season-ending injuries in December are the ultimate season-changers. There’s little time to adjust so you have to redefine yourself on the fly in critical games. Not preferable.

Otherwise, it’s hard not to feel pretty good about the 2016 Patriots right now. They’re a bit banged up, have their crappy defensive possessions and Gostkowski’s still missing a kick almost every game, but compared to the rest of the league, the Pats have to be the Super Bowl favorites, even with their messy edges.

Here’s a ten pack of thoughts after letting the win over the Jets marinate, along with taking stock of the rest of the league.

1. From 2010-2015 the Patriots were 6-9 in games that they didn’t force a turnover. This year they’re 4-2, which speaks to the lack of turnovers this year, but also their ability to win in spite of it. I wonder if this will pay dividends down the road. From 2010-2013 the Pats failed to force a turnover in four-straight season-enders. They got one against the Broncos in 2015, but that wasn’t enough. Obviously things are way easier when they do get takeaways, but winning without them at this rate is pretty unique to this defense. Not feeling like they have to rely on them could be a positive spark.

2. The Raiders, Chiefs and Broncos should all beat up on each other (and hopefully we beat up on the Broncos), so I think the odds must be good for the Pats to secure the top seed in the AFC as long as there isn’t an injury-induced meltdown in December like there was last season. The better offenses like the Raiders, Chiefs and Steelers seem at least capable of pulling off a playoff upset in Foxboro, but let’s face it, the Pats will be firm favorites against anyone in the AFC as long as the game is at home.