The NFL Draft kicks off on Thursday night so today we will look at a few future replacements for Matthew Slater. Trying to keep up with all of the movement ahead of Draft weekend is hard, the top online sportsbooks are updating the odds on where some future skill position players might get taken.
Where we stand:
The Patriots have the best Special Teams Unit from top to bottom in the entire NFL. When you have a generational talent in Punter Jake Bailey you need to surround him with weapons on the outside. Currently the Patriots are stacked with Matthew Slater, Justin Bethel, and Cody Davis.
Bethel just signed a new contract keeping him in Foxboro through 2023, Davis is signed through 2022, and Slater has one year left on his current deal. Matthew is a key part of the Patriots dynasty both on and off the field. The true locker room and spiritual leader of the squad. Those intangibles are nearly impossible to replace but something tells me that Slater will hang them up and retire after this season. He seems focused on his family, faith, and life after football too much to not walk away with his health on his on terms. A lock for the Patriots Hall of Fame no doubt. With that being said, Slater has earned the right to keep signing one-year deals with the Patriots until he says otherwise.
Justin Bethel is one of the more underrated players in the NFL. The duo of Slater and Bethel is a nightmare for opposing special teams coaches. Add in Jake Bailey and this trio very well could be the best punting unit ever assembled. Davis showed some promise last year prior to his rib injury and I expect to see him elevate his game next season.
What we need:
With Slater (turning 36), Bethel (turning 31), and Davis (turning 32) all on the second half of their careers the Patriots will look to restock on Special Teams Aces. No coach in the NFL values the art of special teams more than the Dark Lord Belichick. This will be a late round draft pick or UDFA who comes in and probably sits on the Practice Squad for a year before he really contributes. Good chance this person could also find themselves with the “Foxboro Flu” and end up on season ending IR prior to cutdown day. Either way expect this person to most likely have a redshirt year in 2021.
The Patriots could also look to play Joejuan Williams more in the gunner role as he saw increased snaps on special teams in 2020 due to injuries.
Draft Options:
There are 3 main prospects and one bonus prospect. I lean towards Avery Williams as being the Patriots’ guy due to his impressive career at Boise State, position versatility, and high ceiling. Spend an early 6th rounder to get him.
Avery Williams (CB) – 7th Round – Boise State
Coverage and return ability. 9 career special teams touchdowns. Good mechanics. Leader both on and off the field. Workhorse and tough. Safety, Corner, Running back flex, and special teams capability. Undersized and draws excessive penalties.
Racey McMath (WR) – 7th Round/UDFA – LSU
Athletic build, good speed, plays through contact, only two career drops, blocks well. Stuck behind an impressive list of LSU WRs so Racey used special teams to get on the field. Made 6 tackles and 1 forced fumble playing gunner. Speed, size, and power combination made him a special teams threat. Good work ethic. Has slot potential but does not project primarily as an NFL WR. Below average production when on the field as a WR. Star potential as an NFL Gunner.
Robert Rochell (CB) – 4th Round Grade – Central Arkansas
While Rochell will not be a special teams only player his entire career it could help him see action early on. This could be a great depth piece while we have Gilmore and Jackson this year then assuming one of them walks during free agency next season the Patriots have Rochell to slide in.
Great mix of speed and size. Nice footwork, instinct, and reaction time. Smart player that plays to his advantages. Great utilization of long arms. Jumps in on run support. Needs to add build to his body. Struggles with hip timing. Bites on initial route. Lack of top competition. NFL athleticism.
*Bonus Prospect* – Miller Forristall (TE) – UDFA Grade – Alabama
Miller was his high school’s quarterback until a guy named Trevor Lawrence came along and then Forristall flipped to TE. Miller struggled to put up great numbers while at Bama but played all four years that he was healthy mainly as a blocker. For his career he totaled 44 recs for 505 yards and 5 TDs. He is an above average blocker with a high compete level. I could see the trust between Saban and Belichick getting Forristall a camp invite where he sticks on the practice squad during 2021. His projected role would be a blocking TE, special teams contributor, and hybrid flex.
Draft
Mock Draft Review – Who the experts are predicting the Patriots to select first
With hundreds of mock drafts doing the rounds in the lead-up towards night one of the 2021 Draft, let’s take a look at who some experts have decided for the Patriots pick in the first round along with my thoughts for each prediction.
Pick 10 – QB Justin Fields
Mel Kiper Jr – ESPN – April 13
With only one of the top five quarterbacks still available, the Patriots jump five spots with the Cowboys, giving Dallas their 2022 first-round pick in return. The Cowboys don’t need a quarterback, so they’d be thrilled to get an offer like this and move down only a few spots, because their biggest holes are on defense and they can get a good player at No. 15.
This makes five quarterbacks in the top 10, with Bill Belichick & Co. making the move up for Fields, my second-ranked quarterback. All the moves the Patriots made in free agency showed me that they believe they can get right back into competing for the AFC East title, but I don’t think Cam Newton is the quarterback to get them there. He had too many accuracy issues last season. He’s not the long-term answer. Fields had an up-and-down 2020 season, but he can be a star if he becomes more consistent. And I trust that offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels will get him there.
My Thoughts: I will be setting off fireworks on draft night if somehow the Pats are able to secure Fields, but, I just can’t imagine him slipping outside of the top five. A lot of trash news has come out in recent weeks regarding Fields which could impact his stock, it shouldn’t, but that’s the only way I can see the Patriots getting within reach past number 10, other than trading up to four.
Also predicted to Patriots by:
Todd McShay – ESPN
Pick 15 – QB Trey Lance
Steve Palazzolo – PFF – April 19
New England is primed to move up for a quarterback on draft night, but the more I let this draft play out, the more comfortable I am with Lance in the middle of the first. He’s a dynamic runner who’s flashed the arm to hit every throw, but his accuracy is a notch below the other four first-round prospects. It’s a good play for New England, who have Cam Newton for one year, and they can take their time with Lance or throw him right into the mix when he’s ready.
My Thoughts: This would be an ideal scenario for Patriots fans, getting a QB in the first round, without giving up your future to do so. I can’t see Lance making it out of the top ten, but if he somehow falls to fifteen, it would be a huge scoop for the Patriots halfway through the first round.
Also predicted to Patriots by:
Josh Edwards – CBS Sports
Ryan Wilson – CBS Sports
Charles Davis – NFL.com
Patriots Draft Primer – Quarterback
Today the “Patriots Draft Primer” segment will take a look at the Quarterback position.
Where we stand:
The Patriots quarterback room is currently made up of Cam Newton, Jarrett Stidham, and Jacob Dolegala.
Rumors and analyst commentary have been circulating in recent weeks that Cam Newton’s passing ability will be much better in 2021. Personally, I think that is a cop out statement. It really can’t be any worse than it was in 2020 so of course it is going to be better. Newton has never been known for his accuracy and perhaps his best days are behind him. The Patriots aren’t asking Cam to be Tom, but he must be better than what he showed last season. His style of play seeks out contact at times which is no way to sustain a healthy QB in the NFL. He needs to take care of the ball (both when throwing and when mobilizing outside of the pocket) and know when to get down. Newton’s mechanics, mainly his footwork, were awful during 2020. I expect to see a better performance in 2021 but I am not sure it will be enough, and he isn’t the long-term answer.
I am a big Jarrett Stidham fan from his days at Baylor. He showed promise early on as a gun slinger that translated well to his first year at Auburn. The talks after the 2017 season were that Stidham would be a first round selection in the NFL draft the following year. Stidham was truly a victim of circumstance during the 2018 Auburn season that saw him play behind a decimated offensive line along with his top two pass catching options out with injuries. Gus Malzahn’s wonky Auburn system also did no favors for a QB looking to show off his arm talent. The other rumored landing spots of Texas Tech, Texas A&M, or Oregon would have been better landing spots to showcase his skills.
During his first preseason Jarrett put up the best preseason numbers of any quarterback in the Belichick era, including those of Tom Brady and Jimmy G. However, his in-season performances have been less than stellar whenever he has seen game action. Having no 2020 preseason most likely hurt his development, but one would have to think that with all the shake up in 2020 if the staff felt like Stidham had what it took then he would have received a few starts down the stretch. Stidham has the arm, poise, and maturity to be the Patriots starter, but he has yet to show the decision-making ability. I want this to happen so badly, but I think this ship has sailed. Stidham has two more years remaining on his contract.
Patriots Draft Primer – Wide Receiver
Today kicks off our new segment titled “Patriots Draft Primer” that will focus in on a highlighted position of need leading up to the April 29th NFL Draft. We begin with the Wide Receiver position.
Where we stand:
News broke today that Julian Edelman is doubtful to play a full 2021 season due to his knee injury. Even if he sees some field time Julian is a shell of his former self. The wear and tear of injuries from being Brady’s security blanket over the years is taking its toll. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Edelman hang them due to this.
Aside from Edelman the WR room consists of:
Nelson Agholor
Kendrick Bourne
N’Keal Harry
Jakobi Meyers
Gunner Olszewski
Devin Smith
Isaiah Zuber
Kristian Wilkerson
Matthew Slater (Primarily Special Teams and a blocking decoy)
What we need:
The two traits that this Wideout group lacks are a speed deep threat to take the top off the defense and a big bodied receiver not named N’Keal Harry.
Lets first address the need for speed. The Patriots have been one of the slower wideout groups in the NFL over the past decade. It is almost as if Belichick is afraid of speed. In a league where offenses are spreading wide receivers out and passing more than ever it is fair to say that speed kills. Just take a look at the Chiefs, Bucs, Cowboys, or Falcons Wideout rooms that are laced with speed. The Patriots have also struggled to gain separation which can be solved be increasing our WR speed. They partially addressed this with the addition of Agholor, but I would like to see another piece. Speed depth is crucial in building an offense that is a threat. The chiefs for example have arguably the top WR in the NFL with Tyreek Hill. Surrounding Hill’s speed they had burners in Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman, and Byron Pringle who all had around or below 4.4 speed. This speed depth helps create mismatches against lesser cornerbacks and has the defense secondary always on their heels thinking deep.
Next let’s look at the need for a big bodied WR. N’Keal Harry has the size at 6-3 225 pounds but is afraid to use it. The man is bigger than the majority of secondary players in the NFL, yet he goes down so easily on end around carries when a 6-foot corner back attempts an arm tackle while falling down off the block. There is no excuse for this. Harry should be breaking these using his frame and muscle every time. It leads me to believe that this is a mental battle with Harry more than anything else. Harry has been the discussion of numerous trade talks, but in all honesty, I believe the Patriots hold on to him for one more year. His value potential exceeds the 4th or 5th rounder we will receive in return. The Patriots may defer on this style of WR given the two big Tight Ends they just signed in Free Agency, but it is still worth taking a look at.
Draft Options:
There are 65+ realistic WR options in this year’s NFL draft. Expect the Patriots to double dip on the WR position in some way during the 7 rounds. Here are some fits that would work in the Patriots system.
What will the Patriots do at Pick #15?
The Patriots have 3 options when it comes to draft day:
Option A – Move Up
The least likely scenario of the three. The only way I envision this happening is if they fall in love with one of the top QB prospects not named Trevor Lawrence and move up to get their guy. This would come in the form of Wilson, Fields, Lance, or Jones. None of these guys are a sure thing like TLaw and it would require giving up too much draft stock. For example, moving up to pick #9 would likely require a package of picks that includes our 2021 second rounder and a late round swap. All of this from the coach that values draft picks above all else seems like a stretch.
Option B – Stay put and pick at #15
An unlikely scenario, but one possibility of us staying at 15 is if Penn State Linebacker Micah Parsons falls into our lap. Just a few months back Parsons was a sure top 10 pick but with some rumors of off the field issues circulating this is something to watch for come draft day. A tackling machine that plays a similar game to that of Devin White from the Bucs. He would be a great successor to Hightower and a defensive building block for the future. Parsons is a playmaker that is all over the field and seems to shine in big moments. However, given the other laundry list of needs that this Patriots team has this position may be addressed in Free Agency.
Option C – Trade Back
This is the most likely scenario in my view. Bill has a history of trading back, especially early in the draft, to gain more capital. I see a situation where we trade back into the 18 – 22 range as perhaps the Colts or Titans move up to grab a falling talent. In the event that we do trade back there are two targets that stick out.
Zaven Collins – LB – Tulsa
The first thing that sticks out about Collins is his freakish athleticism. He was a human highlight reel at Tulsa while racking up defensive awards. A player that could line up at multiple spots on defense including on the edge and drop back into coverage against Tight Ends or Running Backs. His usage would be similar to that of former Patriot Jamie Collins.
Christian Barmore – DT – Alabama
The Saban to Foxboro pipeline strikes again! Barmore is the best pressure creating DT in the entire draft. Standing at 6-5 311 pounds Barmore is a day one difference maker that should see a significant amount of snaps as I only expect the Patriots to resign one of either Adam Butler or Lawrence Guy. This is the more likely play given our need at the position and some reinforcements coming back in the form of Hightower at the Linebacker position.
Only 57 days until Draft Day.
Four Best Patriots Rookie Free Agents Roster Bets
The Patriots officially announced 10 rookie free agent signings and with plenty of roster turnover this year, it’s a good bet one or two could make the roster.
Here’s a quick look back at the undrafteds that made the team over the last decade. As David Andrews confirmed, everyone is on a level playing field once they arrive in Foxboro, whether they were a high-round pick, a high-priced free agent or even a “drafterthought”.
- 2008: Ryan Wendell, Benjarvus Green-Ellis, Gary Guyton
- 2009: Brian Hoyer
- 2010: Dane Fletcher, Sergio Brown, Kyle Love, Ross Ventrone
- 2011: Jeff Tarpinian
- 2012: Brandon Bolden, Justin Francis
- 2013: Joe Vellano, Kenbrell Thompkins
- 2014: Malcolm Butler
- 2015: David Andrews, Brandon King
- 2016: Jonathan Jones
- 2017: Adam Butler, Harvey Langi, Jacob Hollister, Cole Croston, Keionta Davis (IR)
- 2018: JC Jackson, Frank Herron (PS)
Who might have the best chance to make this year? Let’s take a look.
[Read more…] about Four Best Patriots Rookie Free Agents Roster BetsNotes from the Film Room: Projecting Patriots 2019 Rookie Class
I’ve spent the past week diving into any Patriots rookie film I can find and obviously there’s a ton out there. Each player sure has their Patriots-esque traits and seeing why the team picked them was pretty clear in almost every case.
How does each new rookie pick fit in? What’s their ceiling and who will they be in direct competition with? Let’s dive in now that I have a much better sense of all of them.
[Read more…] about Notes from the Film Room: Projecting Patriots 2019 Rookie Class