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Notes on a Solid Patriots Win Over the Vikings

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I’m looking forward to getting a second look at this game but for now here were my notes that I jotted down during the action. 

– Sometimes I think it’s hard to tell what the coaches depth chart really looks like. Yesterday was a prime example because I think they took to more of a 1st Half/2nd Half approach to their rotations. Need to look closer at it, but seems to me like they saved Gerard Warren for the second half?

– Reiss said Ninkovich got reduced playing time in the second half due to performance issues but I’m not so sure. Nink had a great third down tackle on third down to force a punt.

– Is it me or did the refs screw us on a couple calls yesterday?

– I really think the next step for this defense is really just getting 1-2 more stops on third down per game. While the numbers look good from yesterday, and statistically it was their best game on 3rd down yet, that doesn’t include the 2-3 penalties they had on third downs as well. That’s really the difference right now for this defense from being okay to being excellent. They are solid on first/second downs and have not given up a 100 yard rusher yet. That’s where great defenses start. If you can stop the run the foundation is there. Now it just comes down to getting off the field on third down. If they can start doing that just 1-2 more times per game this will be a top ten defense. It’s really just that simple. More on this coming this week I’m sure…

– There was some debate about Devin McCourty vs. Kyle Wilson early this year. Is there any question who has been the better player? Oh by the way the Jets only real contributions from their rookies is coming from their backup fullback, John “the prophetized leader of the human resistance against Skynet” Conner. Wilson has been just okay, Ducasse and McKnight aren’t even dressing. Doesn’t bode well for a team with so many veteran free agents after this year. But it bodes well for the Patriots who have at least 12 first or second year players who are major contributors.

– What can you say about that 4th down stop, it was potentially the difference in the game and it was all made possible by Ron Brace who hadn’t played last week. With both Deaderick and Brace contributing it doesn’t necessarily mean the Pats will be forced to take a DE in the 2011 draft. At least not in the first round.

– I hope Deion Branch’s hamstring doesn’t get any worse. Thank Hoodie that Brandon Tate stepped up. But did Minnesota make conscious effort to take Hernandez out of the equation? Hernan did have one sick catch on third down that I have no idea how he caught it. It was like he looked back and the ball was literally on his hip.

– It’s not often you see a running back slowly brought along for two seasons before taking over full time like BJGE. Sure, some of it has had to do with Fred Taylor getting hurt but it’s rare you see a runningback really starting to break out in their third year. 

– What can you say about Danny Woodhead. He’s making blocks and serving as a solid replacement for Kevin Faulk, which is a HUGE feat. Every time he scores or gets a first down I can feel Rex Ryan groaning. He’s making big plays every game now. Gotta love it!

– I think Logan Mankins is really going to take this offense to the next level. Connolly has been solid but Mankins is better than solid. 

– Just the simple fact that Mangini coaches the Browns makes me a little apprehensive about this game. With a young defense no game is a given, even if Peter King has us at #1 in his Fine Fifteen.

Are the Patriots the Best Team in the NFL?

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It’s been hard to get a moment to actually gather my thoughts about yesterday’s win until this point. Of course I’ve woken up to a world where the Patriots have the best record in the NFL and anyone who hasn’t anointed them Super Bowl favorites is getting hammered by many of my fellow Pats fans.

While I’m excited to be sitting alone in first place in the AFCE there’s still a long road to go, and much improvement to be made. Offensively the Pats are doing just enough to win games, I’m hopeful that they’ll continue to improve because at this point there are definitely times where the defense is carrying the offense. And that’s okay. That’s how good teams work.

But the Pats are still demonstrating some inconsistencies on defense, especially on third down. Yes, the only gave up 4/11 (36%) of their third downs, but they also had 2 costly penalties on third downs that resulted in first downs.

But let’s be honest with ourselves. The Patriots are playing solid football and winning games, but everything the last few games has fallen the Pats way. If one of two plays went the other way the Patriots could easily be 1-2 in their last three.

I’m not trying to downplay how good the Patriots are. But realistically they’re not the dominant team of the NFL. I don’t think there is one of those this year anyway. 

Media coverage of the NFL is always about who is number one RIGHT NOW. It’s entirely arbitrary and means little towards who will win the Super Bowl. The Patriots have some talented pieces in place; more talented and cohesive sooner than even I thought they would be. 

The rest of the games on the schedule are not going to all go the Patriots way. Surely there will a disappointing loss or two along the way. But this is a team headed in the right direction. And they are winning games the way you need to win games in January. Making plays when they have to, and not beating themselves. This was pretty much the modus operandi of the Super Bowl winning Patriots.

That was the thing about the old Pats. They never really were dominant. They’d beat bad teams in close games. They’d beat good teams in close games. They just always seemed to find a way to pull it out, and it seem like this 2010 team has a touch of that. At least right now they do.

Where the Patriots rank right now doesn’t really matter a lot. All that matters is that they’ve been improving every week and beating good teams. The education of this young team, especially on defense is far from complete. Huge tests lie ahead in Pittsburgh and Indianapolis. By Thanksgiving we’ll really know how good the 2010 Pats can be.

For now, don’t worry about who random media member Joe Blow has atop their power rankings.

On the Patriots 3rd Down Defense

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The Pats defense currently sit 32nd overall in the NFL in 3rd down stop percentage. While the Bears sit at #1 overall giving up a first only 30% of the time. The Patriots give up a first down 49% of the time.

A quick break down of the 3rd down performance by game:

  • CIN 8/15 = 53%
  • NYJ 6/13 = 46%
  • BUF 5/10 = 50%
  • MIA 10/15 = 66%
  • BAL 5/16 = 31%
  • SD 7/15 = 46%

Basically you want to see your 3rd down percentages below 40%. Only once have the Patriots done that this season, and the results were apparent on the field. Especially in the fourth quarter and overtime.

As you can see Miami was a horror show for New England on third down. Hopefully the trend below 50% since the bye week continues downward. Clearly that’s what will need to happen if the Patriots are to make some noise in the playoffs this year.