Uncategorized

I continue to try and wrap my head around this season, as it’s a script we haven’t seen before. Usually a Patriots season goes one of two ways – they lose a couple games along the way but figure it all out by January for a Super Bowl run, or injuries decimate their chances and they either just miss the playoffs or get beat by a more healthy team. Usually one of these or a combination of sorts.

This year however they raced out to a 10-0 start, losing significant players nearly every week in October and November. Now, they have a one game lead for the top AFC seed, but it’s up to a cast of fill-ins to get them to the playoffs at which time they’re expected to suddenly be back at (almost) full health.

I guess we have to call it the year of non-season-ending injuries.

But as I touched upon in Monday’s Posits, Dion Lewis still truly hurts and the Pats overall lack of a run game since he went down could ultimately be their undoing. 

Simply put, they aren’t winning on first and second down with the ground game and the result is more and more third and longs. In eight games with Lewis, the Pats had 35 3rd downs that were eight yards or longer. In just three games since he went down they’ve had 18. Their yards-per-rushing-attempt on first and second down have dropped from 4.07 to 3.13.

Now the running game’s importance can be minimized to a degree, but as we saw last night, it certainly hurts when you can’t run the clock out. Again, I think they should consider a street free agent who gets out of the backfield quickly, unlike Blount who takes time to build momentum and speed.

But if Gronk/Edelman/Amendola are back for the playoffs and the offensive line settles into a rhythm, they’ll be so much better than what we’re seeing on the field now.

Defense

Still so annoyed with the defense not putting the clamps down against Brock Osweiler at the end of the game. Just when I was reaching a comfort zone with the defense they give up 17 points in the fourth quarter and then, the cherry on top, giving up a 48-yard rushing walkoff TD on a 3rd-and-1 when a stop would’ve given Brady another shot at the win.

Maybe if this was 2010 or 2011 we’d just chalk it up to the fact that there was no talent on our defense. They couldn’t get by without turnovers, but this defense’s only excuse is that Dont’a Hightower went out in the second quarter.

I know the run defense suffered without him, but they still forced four three-and-outs in the second half.

Once they started having success with the run they started having big play success. The 36-yard pass to Demaryius Thomas and the 39 yarder to Emmanuel Sanders on the Broncos final drive of regulation to take the lead were killers and set back all the good work they did against the pass all game until that point.

The Patriots had this game and let it get away despite everything, which is why they’ll be in the mix down to the end for the Super Bowl. Once again all that really mattered was which team made the final play. That’s pretty much always what it comes down to and regardless of everything else, this year will be no different.

Between this game and the one against the Giants a couple weeks ago, I’m pretty sure this Patriots regular season is going to put me into an early grave. 

I’m still trying to wrap my head around the Broncos game and it’s long been over. Obviously the Rob Gronkowski “injury” was a dark moment and I am still in shock that the early reports are that he’ll only be out a week, maybe.

In those moments as Gronk writhed in pain, all Patriots fans went through the same thought – “welp there goes our Super Bowl hopes”. In the moment that was a legitimate thing to believe, but even if Gronk was done for the year I wouldn’t totally rule the Patriots out given the state of the NFL this year. Not with Tom Brady still throwing. And not with our first legitimate defense since 2007.

I’ve never experienced a season like this one, which is refreshing in some ways. The Patriots will still in theory have all their major parts back (except Dion Lewis) for the playoffs. Can they all instantly click to win three games? That’s the question to ponder now.

No matter how many silver linings we spin, this loss still hurts. The Hightower injury – being reported as an MCL sprain – is significant. And the OPI calls on Gronkowski, that seem meant to single him out purposefully, are troubling.

Plenty else to digest, here are the belated Pats Posits…

– A favorite saying of mine is that you can’t truly appreciate a win until you’ve completely accepted that you’re probably not going to win. Super Bowl 49 was the greatest example of that, and now I’ve got the same feeling on a player basis with Gronk.

– We all accepted he was done for the year, that there was finally an injury that would really, really hurt, but now alas, Gronk will be back. Perhaps this is what we needed to break the weekly injury string. Perhaps.

– A brief bit on the penalties and then I’m done complaining about them. I’m not usually one to complain too much about calls but last night’s were just too egregious to ignore. The Chung PI was marginal at best, but I can live with it. I’ve been living with marginal PI calls forever as most of the NFL has. But the Gronk OPI is a disconcerting trend because it seems like he’s being targeted unfairly. The Pats have no choice but to keep playing and make them call it 100 times, because once you tell Gronk to avoid contact at the top of his stem he’s going to play tentative. I just pray to the Football Gods it’s not a Gronk OPI call in the playoffs that does us in because that will set me on fire.

– Rob Gronkowski was walking seemingly fine and the initial reports are that it is not serious but I still wouldn’t mind giving Chandler a game to play a lot. I know he’s had issues with drops but I think he might be the kind of player who benefits from being a central focus for a game or two. We saw it on the game-tying drive when he had a couple big catches. If we can break him out of the funk, get Gronk fully healthy, they could finally live up to their “Twin Towers” expectation.

– I have to say it was an impressive game-tying drive after seeing Gronk go down. You just had to know they were going to be shell shocked after that. Still Brady rallied them down the field and that is incredibly promising for the core of this team that will need to take them to the Super Bowl, especially the offensive line and Brady. That is the Patriots heart we’re used to seeing in the face of adversity.

– Some are probably killing the defense today, but it was pretty simple that once Hightower went down and Chris Harper fumbled the table was perfectly set for the Broncos comeback. I’d like to think Hightower was that critical to the run defense being so good in recent weeks, but it certainly looks that way.  Kevin Duffy of MassLive.com pointed out that with Hightower in the game, the Broncos had 15 rushes for 43 yards. After Hightower went down, they had 17 carries for 136 yards and three touchdowns.

– The end of course ruined what was really an exciting defensive performance until the wheels fell off. Logan Ryan was superb for most of the game as was Malcolm Butler until the end. It shouldn’t have gotten to that point, but I remain confident that with Hightower and Collins back in the lineup this is a championship calibre defense.

– The Broncos made the plays (and got the calls) but they really don’t scare me much down the road. The only focus now is staying ahead of the Bengals because the Broncos have another loss or likely two in them. The Bengals have had great injury luck this year and I still think that’s the AFC Championship game no matter what.

– If there’s something to worry about it’s the running game. Blount can’t get going on his own. White and Bolden can’t make anyone miss. Every game since Lewis went down has been ugly and I would advocate adding someone who can get through the line quickly. Not sure if that player is out there. But what’s distressing is that no one knew Lewis would be that good, and plenty of us thought Blount and White WOULD be the lead backs. So if there was a place that should’ve been a little further addressed this offseason it should’ve been running back. Or at least not cutting Jonas Gray? 

– Vollmer to LT and Cannon back to RT worked well but I thought it was Josh Kline’s worst game and some pressure up the gut hurt a few times. So now that Stork is back at center and we’re coming down the stretch I’d like to see a set line that we stick with. Just figure out the Mason-Kline-Jackson of it all at guard and then roll with it.

– If Gronk and Hightower are back sooner than later this was a good loss. Why? Because the pressure of being undefeated is off and let’s face it, this team isn’t a 16-0 team nor should we care or want them to be. Second, this was a loss that pissed off Brady and Belichick and that always locks . This is the kind of loss the 2007 Patriots could’ve used. Nothing was really exposed about these Patriots that we didn’t already know. Yeah, their run defense went down the tubes after Hightower went out, that’s troubling but not surprising. And really, given the emotion of the end of the game after Gronk, I can’t say I was shocked they laid a turd defensively after it. Those will be plays to look at closer on the rewatch, but I still feel pretty confident about the Pats’ chances of getting to the Super Bowl. It’s just going to be a matter of whether or not Brady can pick things up at an elite level with Edelman/Amendola/Gronk after potentially not playing with them for a while.