In March of 2014, when Bill Belichick signed Darrelle Revis to a one-year deal, I was so convinced of the Patriots defensive dominance that I bet my boss, an extremely successful TV writer, $20 that they would go undefeated.
This same writer has written scores of televisions shows, including one of the most lucrative of the last two decades, won the most prestigious awards in television and has had success few could dream of, but give him truth-serum and I’m sure the $20 he won off of me after THE FIRST GAME was the most satisfying victory he’s ever experienced. Not to mention the slaughter in Kansas City that came a few weeks later. Not a meeting or chat goes by that he doesn’t remind me of my overconfidence. Because there is no more relished feeling in the world than schadenfreude, the pleasure in an enemy’s pain or loss.
If you need proof, just remember how many replays you watched of Roger Goodell’s disappearing act at the podium last February: “Where did he go? Back and to the left. Back. And to the left.” Anyway, you know why I made that bet with my old boss? I thought because ’07 happened that it could happen again, ignoring the fact that it was a statistical anomaly, because I bore witness to it.
You’re already seeing the Boston sports landscape head in this direction before training camp even begins, which should worry us all.
Hot take: I hated ’07. Not simply because it cost me $20 7 years later. Not simply because the gut punch Super Bowl. Not simply because I couldn’t sleep for like 5 nights after that game because the alcohol was still draining from my body. I hated it because a win never felt like a win, even by 40 points, it felt like an escape. It’s a bad thing to be a fan and simply rooting for the best team in the league is not enough, or the best team in the decade, no, it has to be perfect. Which sucks. And Bill Belichick and Tom Brady make fans feel justified, because they have created a statistical anomaly, they make numbers their bitches (see here, buy the sweatshirt).
Plenty of fans loved the Moss season, but to me ’07 was the height of hubris in Patriots nation. Thankfully, the “do your job”, “no days off” humility returned and produced two Super Bowls.
Anyway, I’ve learned my lesson. I’m going to go out on a limb and predict, they do NOT go 16-0… and add that I hope they don’t. Because competition and struggle are the only ways we humans get better at things. Besides, too many fluky things happen: fumbles, penalties, injuries, ‘integrity’-driven suspensions, etc…
Now, all that out of the way. I think the 2017 New England Patriots will have the most efficient offense in NFL history and could break Football Outsiders database in two.
Sorry Bill, but we’re talking about advance metrics.
The previous Patriots teams that ranked in the top 3 DVOA offenses ever were glitch offenses because they had something no one had ever seen. Moss and Brady in ’07 and Gronk, Hernandez, Welker and Brady in ’10. As I’ve said I have few fond memories of ’07 because of the Madden on Easy, one-trick pony of it all and by the time they eeked out the win in the final regular season, I knew there were no more inconsequential games left to add variation into the offense. Of course, it was visually pleasurable to watch Moss bust double coverage gliding to a 60-yard catch in the end zone, but as we witnessed, if you could confidently shut that down with superior early pressure in Brady’s face and commit more of your defensive backfield to shutting down the underneath routes it was a disaster. It was checkers compared to the 3-D chess board that McDaniels and Brady currently play on.
More than the ’07 season, the ’10 campaign is the one that got away… and we’re about see what that season would look like with if we had elite weapons and depth at both WR (Cooks, Edelman, Hogan, Amendola, Mitchell and Baby Hawk replacing Branch, Welker, Hernandez and Brandon Tate) and RB (Gillislee, White, Lewis, Burkhead for BGJE, Woodhead and Sammy Morris), two things they didn’t have in 2010.
By DVOA standards, the ‘10 team was 1B in terms of Patriots historical efficiency right next ’07. The great difference between 2010 to 07 is because 2010 had a balance. Rob Gronkowski and Hernandez were the Randy Moss-like glitch, but neither caught more than 45 balls and neither had over a 600 yards. The offense didn’t completely revolve around them, it was elite in its balance. For christ’s sakes, Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis was a 1,000 yard rusher that season. BJGE was lovable, but he was a practice squad talent who profited from all the attention paid to the middle of the field.
This is why what Belichick did this off-season is so remarkable. He revealed what a liar he has been these past years: “You could take those advanced websites and metric them wherever you want” was the exact quote, which is, well, that’s the hoodie, but he’s metricking them right into Patriot Place.
Despite hoodie’s protests, the Patriots have used analytics and advanced economic theory as the foundation for much of their personnel moves for a long time. And this year was a banner year in terms of acquisitions and that has helped fuel the myriad of undefeated talk.
Let’s dig into last year’s numbers at the skill positions.
At QB, the Patriots have one of the most efficient passers in NFL history. 2016 was no different, Tom Brady was 2nd in the league in yards per attempt, averaging 8.2 yards per attempt. Only Matt Ryan was better at 9.3. Brady also led the league in interception rate per attempt at a jaw dropping 0.5% per attempt. Meaning if he averaged 35 passes a game, he would throw one interception every 6 games. DVOA and QBR *ugh* both had him ranked at 2. Is it possible for him to repeat that performance over a full 16-game season? The honest answer is yeah. He will have an open receiver on every play if the offensive line holds up because of the compliment of weapons he has. If an injury occurs, it obviously alters the season, but Jimmy Garoppolo with McDaniels game-planning has been supremely efficient in limited starting duties.
At WR, the Patriots suffered no losses in personel, and added Brandin Cooks who is close to becoming an elite player coming from an elite offense. His transition could take time, but I wouldn’t expect much. He catches his targets and he gets the most from the balls thrown to him. Last year, Cooks caught 66.7% of 117 balls that targeted him. For a high volume Wide Receiver (over 115 targets), only his teammate Michael Thomas (76%), Doug Baldwin (75.2%), Larry Fitzgerald (71.3%), Golden Tate (67.4%), Antonio Brown (68.8%) were better. For Patriot reference, Edelman caught 61.6% of targets and Hogan caught 65.5% of targets.
On top of his ability to hold on to his targets, he also gets chunk yardage. Last year, Cooks averaged 15.0 yards per reception. Again in terms of high volume receivers, only Julio Jones (17.0), T.Y. Hilton (15.9), Tyrell Williams (15.3) averaged more. For Patriots reference, Hogan tied for the league led with 17.9 yards per catch average and Edelman averaged 11.3. DVOA for WRs values receivers in a slightly different way than we think about it in game. Players like Hogan (ranked 4th last year) are more valuable than a player like Edelman (33rd) or even Cooks (18th).
One caveat is that the Saints offense led by Drew Brees was 6th in offensive DVOA last year and their schedule wasn’t considered very hard in passing terms. So there may be a margin of error there, but he’s joining DVOA’s 2nd most efficient offense of last year led by GOAT Brady. So the offense already has the luxury of complimentary weapons to aid in that transition.
I’d put Edelman, Cooks and Hogan, up against any WR core in the NFL. Then to have Amendola, Mitchell and potentially Andrew Hawkins (aka Baby Hawk) as depth options puts the Patriots in perhaps the strongest WR depth position in the league. I actually think we could see a trade in preseason because of the absurd allocation of resources.
At TE, health is always an issue with Rob Gronkowski, but in his 8 games he averaged 21.6 yards per catch last year(!) grabbing 65.8% of his targets. He’s as elite as it gets at the position. Adding Dwayne Allen who grabbed 67.3% of his targets for an 11.6 yard average shouldn’t hurt the offense if Gronk is forced to miss time. Depth could be an issue, but training camp should sort that out. Subtracting Martellus Bennett will hurt, but Allen is similar in terms of a complete TE. And as we saw last year, having two multi-tooled TEs will open up both the running and passing offenses. Both can block, both can catch and both can run the seams. Again DVOA is an imperfect stat, but Gronk was ranked 1st in 2016 at a whopping 52.1% above average and Allen was 7th.
Because the potential for both Cooks and Hogan running deep routes on the edges should drag safeties to the deepest and widest parts of the field, the middle will open up wider than a Roger Goodell’s schedule when he unceremoniously retires. Please please please.
At RB, losing LaGarrette Blount for Mike Gillislee (MG35) is the analytic equivalent of going from a dependable Honda CRV to a Porsche Cayenne. In the 2016 season, LG was the 18th ranked RB in DVOA (1.5%, which means he’s 1.5% better than your average RB). Do you want to guess where Gillislee ranked? MG35 was ranked 1st with a whooping DVOA of 45%, 17% higher than his teammate LeSean McCoy. I loved LG, hell, my first post at Pats Propaganda planted my flag in anticipation of his career season last year. But Blount was a system RB, a function of the offense’s ability to move people off the line of scrimmage more than his specific skill-set. One caveat, like Cooks on the passing side, Gillislee is coming from an extremely efficient rushing attack (a three-headed monster), but lucky for him, he’s the 5th or 6th option in this offense. Cooks, Edelman, Hogan, Gronk and Allen will again force defenders from the line, giving MG35 a far less congested area to work in than he had in Buffalo.
Gillislee does what LG does but better, he takes the yardage available and more. No tiptoeing in the backfield waiting for something to open or slowly plodding to the edge, MG makes hard cuts, he’s fast for a guy his size, he rarely loses ground, he initiates contact with DTs and LBs alike, sustains his balance after contact and is just as comfortable running between the tackles as running outside of them. Unlike the other pieces of the offense, he has the opportunity to have one of the great fantasy seasons for a Patriots running back, if you care about such things. MG35 was by most metrics the most efficient runner in the NFL, averaging 5.7 yards per touch. And his averages went up slightly when he got more touches. He’s can be efficient in small doses and becomes more efficient when he carries a heavier workload.
With James White, another in a string of Patriots exceptional 3rd down-type backs, Dion Lewis, a multi-down change of pace back, and the Swiss Army knife skills of Rex Burkhead, who can both run the ball, pick up blitzing LBs and CBs and receive. This again is a depth at position that is the envy of the league.
The key to the whole thing is the offensive line who will be critical this season because Brady will feast in late developing plays as you can’t cover everyone. But they should also have the luxury of checking into running plays or the short yardage quick twitch passing game when the box is empty.
Bill Belichick often scoffs at analytics, but mark my words this team was created in The Mad Hoodie’s lab and it will destroy anything in it’s way. It will help them win a lot of football games, but remember the ’07 team went 18-1 and the ’10 team were lost to Mark Sanchez in the playoffs, so let’s relax all the Super Bowl and undefeated talk.
But the good news is that cutting Ryan Allen in camp could free a roster spot for another weapon because they should never ever have to punt. 🙂
