Every NFL season during the Roger Goodell reign has become an absurdist melodrama that would shame the writing staffs of Downton Abbey, Days of Our Lives and WWE. This year’s episodes included:
The Suspension. The Jimmy G Tour. The Thumb. Goodell’s Pathological Addiction to Protecting Pathological Abusers. I have no idea how he screwed this up, but I’m glad the Giants have correctly identified Odell Beckham as the Giant most in need of chiding. “The Belichick Letter,” which reminded me of the great “Cheevers letters” Seinfeld episode. The “Tomato Can” tour, a Dan Shaughnessy tradition unlike any other. (“Heads, I win”; “Tails, I win” argument. Shaughnessy’s such a talented writer who relies on hackery in an effort to be “right”. As if that matters.) Deflategate 2: Science And Procedure And Whatever. Walkie-Talkie thingee. (I understand the hypocrisy of the NFL, but I still don’t understand why I’m supposed to care about this. This is how the league should punish people for things that don’t affect the 22 players on the field.)
Deeeeeep breath…
The Year-Long Ratings Decline. The Cynical Touchback rule. LeGarrette Blount’s predictable 1,000-yard season. Patriots get too cute trying to bleed clock and end up losing to Seattle. Jeff Fisher’s paid vacation. Rex Ryan’s truck. Aaron Rodgers being treated like a God for correctly identifying the Packers upcoming soft schedule. (Where is Shaughnessy on this one?!) Jason Garrett following in a long line of mediocre coaches winning Coach of the Year. (In a decade this will look really bad, but he had a back-up QB win 13 games. I get it.) John Harbaugh complained a bunch. (Google “John Harbaugh complains.” It’s absolutely remarkable. He once complained at a player’s funeral to DeMaurice Smith talking about practice!)
But something about this season didn’t feel quite right. Almost like a network comedy that’s in a 5th or 6th season rut. The cast and writing staffs have become a bit hemmed in by their cast, each now slowly becoming more caricature than character. This season felt like that. Maybe that’s why most of the stories we got were like the third season of the O.C.’s Chrismukkah episode: Deflategate 2, Goodell goes Soft on Wife beaters, John Harbaugh complains about something that happened to him in grade school. Even Goodell never really seemed invested in this year’s tangential storylines, barely defending his atrocious handling of the league. Afraid to show his face as ratings declined. He barely lodged a single illogical pronunciations that went unchallenged by writers propped up by the league. No science to disprove. No tyrannical over-reliance on the word “Integrity.”
Really, this season has been pretty ho-hum. Which is what scares me the most.
Seasons like this come with abrupt and horrible endings. A lead character surprisingly dies (BB Retirement, anyone?). A surprise twist at the end (Helmet Catch).
Nobody freak out, I’m not predicting a Texans win on Saturday, though that’s not as far out of the realm as everyone would like to believe. I also think Belichick and Brady have the capacity to overcome any and all comers, but there’s an eery calm right now and I wonder if it’s all about to be unmoored. With that said, Winter is Coming and here are a few:
Divisional Round predictions:
Goodell will attend the Patriots-Texans game on Saturday Night. The league and Roger Goodell have a psychotic need to inject themselves into NFL storylines and as I documented earlier, this season hasn’t been their finest story arc. That’s why the Pete Morelli referee assignment stood out to me. Morelli is one of the league’s most inconsistent and incompetent officials. When the Patriots were to play Goodell’s hometown Ravens, I wondered aloud if two things might happen:
- Goodell will make his first appearance in Foxboro.
- Pete Morelli will be assigned as the head ref.
Book it.
When Goodell has a chance to troll New England, he absolutely will. F#$% Goodell.
I was wrong about the game, but I think I’m right about the tandem. Morelli’s incompetence is well-documented and as Michael Hurley cited it’s not exactly biased, just bungling. He struggles to communicate with coaches, Belichick has complained about him before, and Goodell will use Morelli’s pathetic performance as a distraction to slip in and out of Foxborough. It won’t be reported until the game has begun, but I think as word filters through the crowd, and the murmurs turn to whispers and the whispers turn to full throated “No Fucking Way, Guy”s, I predict we will hear the single greatest “Fuck Goodell” chant in World History. We will probably hear it anyway, but I think Roger Goodell will be in attendance to hear it in person (please, not in the Kraft’s suite). I can’t wait to hear Phil Simms throw a few half sentences together as CBS tries to cut the audio. “Well, Jim, we all know that these fans love Tom Brady… Roger Goodell has always stuck by… that’s what’s called a rub route, it’s like a pick play, but… In our meeting this week, Bill said the Texans linebackers were…”
Goodell thought he would reap the ratings reward of forcing Brady into a “heel turn,” but that storyline dragged on so long that no one outside of New England knows what it was about by the end. But now that Peyton is gone, Brady’s marketability actually means more to the league than ever. Plus he’s recently done some fun ads and has PJs!!! So I think, Troy Vincent will go back to Belichick hunting. As such, I predict that we will have multiple NFL sources reporting of communications issues on the sideline. It’s a well-documented problem in Gillette Stadium and the league controls the headsets, but that doesn’t stop the NFL encouraging conspiracy theorists.
As far as the game is concerned, I’m wary of giving a very good defense two touchdowns. That’s not to say, I think the Patriots will lose, but stranger things have happened. We will need to see the Hyde version of the defense, not the Jeckyl. Or is it the other way around? Who cares? Pats win. On the one-year anniversary of Chandler Jones rolling into the Foxborough PD shirtless, Trey Flowers will dominate.
Around the League:
Seattle At Atlanta: I just have no feel for who wins this game. Seattle’s Defense has been in steady decline since the Earl Thomas injury and the Falcons offense can be electric. But Matty Ice always struggles in big games. Both teams will score many, many times. Bang the over. That’s all I got.
Green Bay At Dallas: The Cowboys return to very goodness is interesting and I expect the league to do everything in its power to get its preferred matchup of Patriots or Steelers vs. Dallas. The Aaron Rodgers story is nice, but that team is as flawed as they come and one player can’t win a Super Bowl. I predict a few drive killing holds on Green Bay’s offensive line. This Dallas team is league approved.
Also, not sure if it will be this week or next, but the Football Gods will twist Dak’s Ankle to give Romo his Bledsoe moment. I’m a bit worried, the Cowboys are getting that ’01 Patriots vibe.
Pittsburgh At Kansas City: The Steelers have a balanced offense and it will be interesting to see how the Chiefs allocate their defensive resources. Do they stack the box and try to take away the best RB in the league? Or do they bring an extra man over the top to try to prevent the big play? Something’s wrong with Roethlisberger and I’d bet they try to let him beat them and bring pressure up the middle. If the Patriots take care of the Texans, this game could be helpful scouting because like the Steelers, the Patriots have playmakers in the run game and the passing game. I think Chiefs play from ahead the entire game and head to Foxboro. Unless, of course, Andy Reid.
Anyway, we’re in Monster Plot Turn territory of the season and I’m just wondering how it all ends?
Since you brought up Shaughnessy and his mail it in approach to covering the Patriots, I looked up some numbers regarding Patriots opponents in the playoff. It is amazing Saturday will make 2 full seasons worth of playoff games for TB12. We all know he holds a 22-9 record for a 71 winning% in those playoffs. Ironically, the average number of regular season wins for their playoff opponents is 11.5, a little over 71%. Tom Brady and the Patriots are winning 71% of their playoff games against teams that are used to winning 71% of their games. That is insane.
On a side note, strangely the Patriots Superbowl foes have won 9,10,11,12,13 and 14 games in the regular season. They lost to the 9 & 10 win teams. Those seasons represent the only times “Playoff Eli” has advanced past the first round. We have to admit the 2011 Pats with a shaky D and decoy Gronk probably would have lost to the 15-1 Packers if they had taken care of business against the Giants anyway or the 13-3 Niners. With full Gronk might have beaten them all. We’ll never know.
And in regular season, Pats won 80% of games against playoffs teams and also beat the Ravens and Cardinals two teams that were better than the Lions and Dolphins. A bit misleading, but still it wasn’t the Tomato Can schedule people would lead you to believe. Also the Patriots had a back up and a third string QB play 4 games. Outside of the Cowboys (and probably not them if they’d had to go to Sanchez for two games) no team could have done that.