This is probably as close as you’ll get to a hot take here on the Prop, but a recent commenter pointed out my concern over the front seven so I think it’s worth diving into a little more deeply. Or at least expanding upon my reasoning that there are more questions about this Patriots defense than some might want to admit.
Look, I skew toward the defensive side of the ball and I’ve got to be honest in my analysis, as much as we all want this to be a fanboy blog that does nothing but spew rainbows and sunshine about how awesome the Patriots are.
This isn’t doom and gloom. These are legitimate questions. But we can all agree that the defense remains well coached and has a number of promising young players. That is exciting. But those unproven players will need to step up because this is not an insignificant transition at the most important part of the defense.
And yes, the secondary is awesome. So hopefully that can help as things turn over.
Still, here’s what we’re looking at:
Rebuilding the Pass Rush
2016 was the Patriots lowest sack total since 2009, with 34 sacks. Of those 34, those belonging to Rob Ninkovich (four), Chris Long (four) and Jabaal Sheard (five), along with single sacks from Logan Ryan and Jamie Collins, 15 departed this offseason.
DISCLAIMER: Sacks are not the end-all, be-all of pass rush statistics. That is even more true on a defense like the Patriots that prefer to play sound defense and force the offense to execute over and over to score. What matters is disruption. Still, everyone loves talking pass rush and pass rushers and the fact that the team lost nearly half their sacks isn’t getting much discussion.
The other problem here is that this year’s slate of quarterbacks is far more treacherous than 2016’s was.
The production of the three departed rushers (13 sacks) needs to be replaced, if not in cold, hard numbers, in additional disruption. That’s just to get back to their lowest total since 2009. And really, the golden number for sacks in a season has always been 40.
So it’s not crazy to wonder if new guys like Guy (a very efficient pass rush disruptor if not a sack master), Dietrich Wise (11.5 sacks his last two years in college) and Derek Rivers (37.5 career college sacks) can help produce 21 new sacks in this defense.
It’s also fair to point out that the defense ranked 23rd in DVOA last season, tied for fourth-worst under Belichick. And again, look at the QBs coming down the pike this year.
This is where Kony Ealy’s disappointing training camp becomes a problem. The Pats needed a veteran end to help this transition, and right now they’re not getting that from Ealy. At all.
Yes, Trey Flowers should have a big year and maybe Dont’a Hightower and the rest of the linebackers will stay healthy enough to get him more reps getting after the quarterback. But relying on rookies to replace pass rush pressure is a bit scary no matter how good your secondary is. Remember, nobody can cover forever.
Defend the Edges
The second issue that concerns me is on the edges. Put it this way, if I’m an offensive coordinator and I see a rookie defensive end (Wise or Rivers) with someone like Shea McClellin, Kyle Van Noy or Jonathan Freeny at outside linebacker beside them, I am running the ball RIGHT AT THEM.
A game with this tactic that immediately comes to mind was 2015’s loss in Denver, which saw Dont’a Hightower leave the game and the Broncos proceeding to run all over the Patriots defense en route to an overtime victory.
Again, Alan Branch and Malcolm Brown are really good, and they are ably backed up by Vincent Valentine and Guy. But the Patriots depth at outside linebacker after Hightower is less than intimidating and will have a target on their back against teams with a run game that can attack the edges, i.e. zone runs.
They’ll Be Solid No Matter What
Regardless of their pressure numbers the Patriots defense will remain one of the best-coached and fundamentally strong in the league. That goes a long way. But it’s fair to wonder how the team will transition from a trio of veteran pass rushers who delivered in big spots for them, while also lacking any blue chip outside linebackers besides Hightower.
What do you guys think? Are you concerned about the pass rush? About relying on green rookies to replace the production experienced veterans gave you?
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I am too concerned, not about the DT depth(which I think only the Jets are deeper at DT in the entire NFL) but on the edges, same concern of 3 vet pass rushers to 3 possible rookies or Ealy. Pats need a trade ASAP for a starting edge player that hopefully can bring some pass rush. All last season I kept saying the no pass rush thing will bite NE in the ass come playoff time, NE picked it up right before the playoffs but still wasn’t great in the playoffs, Brock/Ben had all day to throw, SB51 Sheard/Flowers both played at an insane level, Long with the key hold, dont see Wise or Rivers or Ealy making these plays in big games. Don’t really have a target in mind but NE should be desperate for a pass rusher/edge defender.
I’ve been sharing your concern, especially since Nink’s retirement and Ealy’s reportedly disappointing showing so far. Let’s not forget that even Trey Flowers is still very inexperienced. He was only a starter for us the second half of last season. He’s a promising player, but no lock to give us double-digit sacks. Moreover, even if he does, we’re still short 28 sacks to reach your 40 sacks. That’s very concerning, indeed.
I think one key point you didn’t mention is the duo of Hightower & Van Noy. Both are phenomenal when it comes to blitzing (PFF confirms this) and I think Pat Chung gives us the opportunity to send both of them every once in a while. If Van Noy develops in his second season with us, I think it’s not unrealistic for these two to deliver us 8 sacks (4 each), which mitigates the loss in production a little bit.
On the plus side, I believe this defense is going to be stout against the run. We have terrific run stoppers in Branch, Brown and Valentine that will shut down the middle. At LB, we can line up Hightower, Harris and Roberts, which are all great run defenders. I know that this doesn’t cover the edge guys but Flowers is terrific in run support, while Wise is definitely built to stop the run. Moving Lawrence Guy to the edge is always a possibility as well (in a 4-3 at least). Being good against the run will help the pass rush a little bit since it could lead to a lot of 3rd and long.
I feel mildly honored I spurred on a blog post lol.
I’m not going to pretend I’m anything more than what I am: a fan. I’m not a dummy but I’m not an expert. But in spite of the fact that I actually agree with you that I’m concerned by the enormous turnover at DE, I also can’t help but remember the last couple years and have my thought process partially stirred by them. Recall 2014; I remember trying to convince myself Zach Moore was going to be a diamond in the rough DE, do you? He was literally their only DE after Chandler/Nink (unless you count Ayers who was sorta a LB/DE hybrid). If that defense wasn’t a winner for poor depth I dunno what was. Granted, Hightower/Collins/Castillas was a good LB group, but I’ve always loved David Harris whom I think can act as a 2001 Bryan Cox sorta presence and I’m a fan of Van Noy. So, I suppose I’m a bit of an optimist with the LB group.
Also, I think of 2015 with the CBs. SB hero or not, we were replacing Darrelle friggin’ Revis with an undrafted CB from West Alabama and Browner with Logan Ryan who earned more scorching hot takes from the fan base than even Kyle Arrington did. Result ended up being they were, well… sorta better defensively that year than the year prior.
Again, I’m no expert. You’re as sharp as a pundit around the Pats verse and better than most paid observers. And again, I do sorta agree with you. Maybe I’m just drunk on in Bill we Trust cool aid, but I’m feeling somehow pretty good about the defense this year. It should, at the least, be similar to last year’s. No sex appeal, consistent quality, and solid PPG numbers.
Haha, hey I love the conversation! Obviously none of us are BB, so we’re all on the same level of validity and you have great points. After watching some of the preseason game again last night I feel really good about Wise, Rivers and Langi, and I think all three will help. But another thing I remembered is that if the top line guy stay healthy they should be fine. Always some turnover to deal with, and while I miss the comfort of having multiple experienced ends to roll out, they’re still going to be a sound defense.