The Patriots rolled over the Titans Saturday night to the tune of a 35-14 blowout that clinched a spot in the franchises’ seventh consecutive AFC Championship Game (is that good?). Up next are the surprising Jaguars, who toppled the Steelers in exciting fashion last Sunday, hanging 45 points on Pittsburgh’s defense. However, I do not think that score should truly worry Patriots fans, as Blake Bortles is still Blake Bortles and Bill Belichick is still Bill Belichick. Sure, Bortles played well against Pittsburgh, but I think he will need to play almost perfect in order to come into Foxborough and dethrone the champs.
Sure, Bortles did have a good day (especially for Blake Bortles standards), but if you look closer at the numbers, it is easy to see why the Patriots should be able to lock down Bortles come Sunday. For starters, Bortles only completed 10 passes belong the line of scrimmage. The Jags, rightfully so, simplified their game plan to the max against Pittsburgh, and expect them to use the same formula in Foxboro this Sunday, which should be a positive for New England.
Against Pittsburgh, Bortles was not sacked, and was only pressured on eight of his 28 drop-backs, just 28% of the time he dropped back. When he was kept clean, Bortles had a passer rating of 115.5, but when pressure was applied, his passer rating dropped to an abysmal 39.6.
Evidently, the Patriots must generate pressure on Bortles, but that might prove to be a difficult task. The Jaguars allowed the 27th-fewest sacks in the NFL this season, only giving up 1.5 sacks per game on average, and Bortles was not sacked Sunday against a Steelers defense that led the NFL in sacks. In fact, the Jaguars offensive line only relented four hurries on 140 total pass-blocking snaps against Pittsburgh, an absurdly good figure that demonstrates just how good this offensive line is.
The Jags offensive line might is among the best in the NFL, but the Patriots have proven that they can get heavy pressure on a quarterback. On Saturday night, the Patriots sacked Mariota on 42% of his drop-backs, which is an excellent number, especially considering the fact that Mariota was only sacked on 18% of his drop-backs during the regular season. He was sacked once per every 6 drop-backs against the Pats, compared to being sacked one per every 18.2 drop-backs during the regular season. Furthermore, Mariota was pressured on just 29.8% of his drop-backs during the regular season, the sixth-lowest rate in the NFL, but against the Pats, Mariota was pressured on 39.6% of his drop-backs.
These numbers point to a defense that can disrupt the quarterback better than most in the NFL, especially when rushing just four. Consider this: the Patriots only sent more then four rushers seven times against Tennessee, and on those seven plays, Mariota was 5 of 6 for 54 yards, one touchdown, and a 143.6 passer rating. These Pats, led by Trey Flowers, who has recorded at least three pressures in eight straight games, can and should be able to effect Bortles on Sunday using just their front four, which could make the difference in the ballgame.
It is also important to note that Bortles excelled only against the Steelers various zone coverages. Against all coverages except man, Bortles was 12 of 18 for 202 yards, one touchdown, and a 122.9 passer rating. However, when the Steelers switched to man, he was just 2 of 8 for 12 yards, no touchdowns, and a passer rating of 39.6. This bodes very well for the Patriots, who have been predominantly a man coverage team this year.
Bortles is also a totally different passer when using play-action. In the regular season, Bortles had the eight-best passer rating on play-action throws (106.8), and the Jags used play-action on 53.6% of Bortles’ throws against the Steelers . Comparatively, Brady play-actioned just 32.1% of the time Saturday, and Mariota only used it 6.3% of plays. The Patriots must contain Bortles when the Jags opt to run play-action, because if they can, they are taking away perhaps Bortles’ biggest strength as a passer.
Yet perhaps the most important part to shutting down Bortles is shutting down his backfield partner, Leonard Fournette. If the Patriots can jump out to an early lead like they did against Tennessee and force a run-dominant offense into throwing far more than they would prefer, the Patriots should have this game in hand, but if Fournette (6’0”, 228 pounds) generates success on the ground early, this game could become a dogfight. Luckily, the Pats just played a similar back in Derrick Henry (6’3”, 238 pounds), who they shut down Saturday night.
Henry managed just 28 yards on the ground against New England, with just 17 of those yards coming after contact. He averaged just 1.4 yards after contact, which was well below his season average of 3.2 YPC after contact (2nd highest among running backs). Fournette, on the other hand, racked up 56 of his 109 yards after contact against the Steelers. The Patriots will need to rally around the football and not allow Fournette to break tackles, which is something the Patriots excel at. The Patriots defense are an excellent tackling team, and only missed one tackle (yes, just one) Saturday night, aka just 2.5% of their potential tackles. Not giving Fournette extra yards and setting up long down and distance on late downs could prove critical, but the Patriots have what it takes to accomplish this.
Yes, this Jaguars offense posses challenges, but I think all it will take for the Patriots to secure a victory is to hold the Jags under 22 or so points, something that they have done 11 times in their past 13 games (and since Week 5, the Patriots have allowed just 14 points per game, tops in the league). I say 22 points specifically because, since 2009, the Patriots are 12-0 in the playoffs when scoring over 21 points, but 0-6 when they fail to reach 22. I do not mean to underestimate the Jaguars like some notable people that come to mind (cough, Mike Mitchell, cough), but I just think this Patriots defense is playing too well right now to surrender more than 21 points to Blake Bortles and Co, and as good as the Jags defense is, I can’t envision a scenario in which Brady, Gronk, the offense don’t reach that magic threshold of 22 points.