Crafting a Patriots Offseason Plan

The last year has had some crazy Patriots personnel moves and there’s no reason to think this spring will be any different. The Patriots have a bunch of free agents and a bunch of cap space that has to go somewhere.

Will this be another soft defensive reset if they were to lose Logan Ryan, Dont’a Hightower, Alan Branch, Chris Long and Jabaal Sheard? Will those who have now won two Super Bowls seek to maximize their leverage?

As is always the case when we enter a Patriots offseason, anything goes. It might be exciting. It also might hurt. It might be a little scary. That’s the NFL in the free agency age. Especially with cold-hearted Bill Belichick.

Here’s a jumping off point for my views on the Patriots offseason. I’ll expand on each in then coming weeks. Perhaps my feelings will change, but right now, here’s what I think.

Keep These Guys

1. Franchise Tag Dont’a Hightower — I’d prefer a long-term extension but I have a feeling they won’t find middle ground. The Franchise Tag gives Hightower a big sum of money ($14.6 million) but also protects the Pats for another year to see how his body holds up. There are just too many unknowns and I don’t think Hightower will be taking any sweetheart deals.
2. New Contract for Malcolm Butler — The Pats have never paid corners but the price tag is only going up on Butler. They could just use a first round tender, let him play 2017, then Franchise him in 2018, but I think he’s a special player that needs to be locked up for four-ish years.
3. Extend Nate Solder — Solder’s just 28 and entering the final year of his deal. The rest of the line is locked up, now it’s time to put some of the cap space toward the important left tackle despite his meh Super Bowl 51.
4. Extend Julian Edelman — Edelman has earned a bigger payday. He’s also entering the last year of his deal. He’ll be 31 in May, so this might be the last deal he gets, but the Pats should extend him two years and give him a pay bump.
5. Extend Danny Amendola Once Again — It’s the third year in a row for this and while I think they could just cut him and move on, I think they’ll get one more year out of the 31-year old. I just don’t know how long they can keep kicking the Amendola contract can down the road.
6. Re-Sign Alan Branch — A solid one-year deal would do the trick to the key cog in the middle. I worry he’ll break down suddenly, especially if he gets lazy with his two Super Bowl rings. But he had his best season yet and is a mammoth in the middle and a run-stopping force.
7. Keep All the RFAs — Justin Coleman, Cameron Fleming, Geneo Grissom, Mike Williams and Brandon King should all easily stay. Coleman’s the only one I wonder about but he’s a good depth player. The rest are all vital depth/special teamers.
8. Re-sign James Develin — There’s no other option. You don’t let a fullback like Develin walk. Belichick’s love for him is apparent. Easy re-sign.

Try to Re-Sign, But They’re Probably Gone:

The Patriots will make offers to most of their free agents. They might be far surpassed by external offers but the Pats will at least make the attempt. Here’s the guys that will probably get away.

1. Logan Ryan — Ryan is the perfect Patriots cornerback and was a huge part of the defense this year. It’s going to hurt losing him, but I think the Pats will pay just one corner this offseason and it will be Butler. Between Rowe, Coleman and Jones they have some depth in the pipeline and will certainly add more.
2. Duron Harmon — How much can you pay a third safety who only plays half the snaps? He’ll get a chance to start somewhere for starter money. With McCourty and Chung locked up, you have to let guys like Harmon go.
3. Martellus Bennett — I’ve gone back and forth on Bennett all season, but now after it’s all over I’m back to my original line of thinking that he was a one-year hire who will take a big payday elsewhere. Would love to see him stay, but I just don’t know if Marty’s up for more years of Patrioting.
4. Jabaal Sheard — I think the Pats will make an attempt with Sheard but it will be a lowball offer and he’ll take more elsewhere. GMs are obsessed with pass rushers and that’s why Sheard will get more than he’s probably worth. He had a solid year. He didn’t set the world on fire like many us expected but he came through with some critical plays, especially in the Super Bowl. If there’s one of this group I’d like to keep most it’s Sheard.

Let Them Go!

1. LeGarrette Blount — Blount had a fun year but was MIA in the playoffs including a fumble in the Super Bowl. Again this year I think it’s time to find a young hard charger in the draft, someone who isn’t as hot and cold as Blount.
2. Chris Long — Long had the fewest DE snaps and I don’t think he’s still trending up. Love the guy, glad he got a Super Bowl ring but his is a role that could be turned over either to another vet or even a rookie. Though if he’d play for free don’t entirely rule a return out. Long’s just the kind of guy to take a Patriots cheap-ass offer.
3. Brandon Bolden — Great special teams player but it’s time to turn over his role both on STs and as a backup running back to someone young who might have a higher ceiling.
4. Michael Floyd — The Patriots depth at receiver isn’t going anywhere and I can’t see the Pats paying him much of anything with the uncertainty surrounding his legal future, not to mention he could really fail to see the field. However, if they decide to just cut Amendola, Floyd could be an interesting fourth option.
5. Barkevious Mingo — I’m on the fence with Mingo who seems like nothing more than a special teams guy here in New England. The question is if Mingo sees himself as just a special teamer.

External Free Agency Needs

If all this unfolds as I lay out the needs for veteran free agents will be:

1. Defensive End — Will be a draft need too, they can grab a cheap castoff vet who underperformed or is coming off injury.
2. Running Back — Need protection post-Blount, this will be for competition, with the hope a rookie can play a role.
3. Third Safety — Probably more of a draft need, but until Jordan Richards can get on the field they’ll need someone with range to keep McCourty free. Definitely a draft need.
4. Cornerback — You can never have too many corners. They’ll add three-to-four between vets and rooks.
5. Tight End — If Bennett gets away they could look to make another splash. A viable Y tight end to pair with Gronk is vital.

 Draft Needs

Where do the Pats need youth and long-term reinforcements? These will be drastically affected by Free Agency. Here are my early ideas anyway:

1. Linebacker — how about a Jamie Collins type…?
2. Defensive End — Gotta find who’s going to be next to Trey Flowers as Nink slows down.
3. Running Back — Young hard charger? Devonta Freeman-esque? Only a better pass blocker please.
4. Tight End — I’d like a high-round pick to be groomed as a long-term Gronk sidekick.
5. Tackle — Even more of a priority if Solder doesn’t get extended. Need an athletic swing guy who can fill both spots and maybe start sooner than later.
6. Safety — Third safety role will be up for grabs in camp.

Much more to come on all of it as the pieces begin to fall. What do you guys think? How are you feeling about Hightower??