The defense is getting a ton of attention this week because, as you’ve probably heard, they rank last or close to last in most statistical categories three games into the season. Even my favorite ranking, Football Outsiders’ DVOA has them 32nd overall.
Sometimes I feel like complaining about the defense is just what fans do every year. They led the league in points against last season but many still stuck to the narrative that they were overrated, hadn’t played any good quarterbacks, etc. For whatever reason, no matter where they rank people tend to freak out about the D. Maybe it’s because they remember the 2000s defense, when football was different and defenses could really dominate, or maybe it’s just because they’re used to seeing Tom Brady dominate and they expect the same out of the other side of the ball.
Whatever the reasoning, it’s important to really look at each sequence, especially when we’re just three games into the season. I thought Mike Reiss did a nice job breaking down the difference between how the Pats D did vs. broken plays/scrambles vs. regular drop backs:
Scramble/loose plays: 13
Normal: 24
Watson was 7-of-11 for 117 yards on scramble/loose plays in which the pocket was sometimes re-established as he rolled out. That included one interception on the game-ending Hail Mary, as well as two sacks. In the normal passing game, Watson still made plays, but the results were indeed much more uneven.
Let’s dive into the All-22 film review to get a better sense of what’s going on with the Pats’ defense.
— In the first quarter, the defense was actually really good. Aside from a 32-yard pass interference call on Stephon Gilmore that set up a field goal, the defense was otherwise sturdy, forcing three-and-outs on two of their first three possessions. A shitty punt by Ryan Allen (36 yards) late in the first quarter set up the Texans on the Pats’ 44. Two plays later the Texans would score their first touchdown of the game.
- 15 yards to Braxton Miller – A fake reverse sucked Kyle Van Noy toward the line of scrimmage and opened a hole in the coverage.
- 29 yards to Bruce Ellington – McCourty turns toward Hopkins’ side of the field, opening up the seam for a perfect pass. Jonathan Jones has outside leverage and is helpless to stop a perfect touchdown pass.
— Gilmore’s interception on the next possession was largely in thanks to Dietrich Wise, who did a good job staying disciplined and stopping a potential end around before rushing the passer and causing a weak throw. Solid pressure and the kind of play you don’t usually see a rookie make.
— Adam Butler had a rookie game, losing contain and missing tackles. Effort was there, just wasn’t finishing, as was the case for much of the defense, including Trey Flowers, as good as he is.
— Elandon Roberts needs to be better too. Previously we could count on his hard run fills, but even those were waning in this game. Hopefully the heavy playing time will help him get back on track. He’s another one who just missed a couple finishes that would’ve changed the game.
— Here was a key third down near the two-minute warning before half time. Not sure what happened with Gilmore as it appears he’s playing man but everyone else is in zone. Jonathan Jones can sift through the bunch release and it ends up being a wide open pass for a first down conversion. These are new players this season on defense remember. Jones and Gilmore immediately discussed after the play, with it looking like Jones was doing most of the talking, and to my eyes it looks like he was explaining to Gilmore what he should’ve done.
— Cassius Marsh really seems to be fitting in well and getting better each week. You can see his discipline trying to do what the Patriots ask, no easy task on the edge.
— The broken play 35-yard pass on 2nd-and-22 was the most annoying play of the game. The pass rush has to finish, as Lawrence Guy had a shot at Watson and Adam Butler just got swallowed on the edge allowing Watson space to reset and throw.
— Malcolm Butler is the best corner on this team and I’m not sure it’s even close at this point, when he plays “his” game, which he did against Houston. Aggressive, good closing burst, good energy…I love me some Butler.
— On the touchdown early in the third quarter, it was McCourty manned up on Ryan Griffin as Watson threw a nice back shoulder ball. Not sure the coaching point on this one as McCourty probably should’ve turn around to look for the ball, but it’s a lot to ask with Griffin’s size.
— On the third-and-one at the start of the fourth quarter the Patriots were playing pass with the linebacker “sugaring” the A-gaps presnap. Watson handed it off out of the shotgun and the two linebackers didn’t have the leverage to hold their ground and make the stop. Curious play call from Matty P there.
— Kyle Van Noy went for and missed the interception on D’Onta Foreman‘s 34 yard catch in the early fourth. Van Noy played every snap but his impact plays are pretty limited thus far. Still not sure he’s more than just a guy at this point, at least when being asked to be the guy at linebacker.
— Pats got a critical red zone stop on third-and-3 in the fourth but it probably should’ve been a touchdown with McCourty lagging on coverage up the seam against Griffin again. Interesting that it seemed like Houston was targeting the defensive captain, whose seen an increase in a coverage role this year.
— On the third-and-two draw Lawrence Guy got a little too upfield and it opened a crease for Watson to find the first down. Again, a new guy not quite doing his job. That’s why, with time, I think these things will be fixed.
— Forcing a pun on the third-to-last possession was critical and the Patriots showed they could’ve been playing Watson better the whole game. The defensive line keeps him contained and the coverage is good. Jonathan Jones fell down and it probably should’ve been a completion but the window was still pretty tight due to good coverage.
— The 46-yard broken play to Foreman on the second-to-last possession had five different Patriots miss a chance to make a play. Say what you will about them but late in the game under hot conditions this is almost understandable. They just have to be better and they have to finish.
Overall, I still believe this defense will be fine. It’s not like they’re getting picked apart on every possession. They’re certainly making plenty of mistakes, especially by the new guys who are playing significant snaps, but when they were all on the same page and playing within the system the Texans struggled to move the ball.
Cam Newton will be a fantastic test. One thing the defense lacks is game-changing athleticism on the second-level and often times that has been exposed. Expect the Panthers to target it just like other teams have. But if they play disciplined and communicate I think we’ll see big strides taken.
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