It was troubling to see that the Patriots offense went cold in the clutch again versus the Colts. All they needed was one more drive to ice the game, something they were able to do against the Vikings, but this time they failed on two possessions, only gaining one first down. This of course put the game in the hands of the defense.
Here’s what Football Outsiders saw when they broke down Brady’s final three pass attempts during those failed drives…
Brady had exactly three incompletions on his first 24 attempts before finishing his game out with four consecutive incompletions, including a would-be interception that Tyjuan Hagler was nice enough to show to the turf. Aaron Schatz and Bill Simmons wondered about what happened to Brady on those final attempts during the former’s appearance on the B.S. Report, so I decided to take a look at the final three.
On the first play, the Colts lined up with linebackers in both A-gaps, leaving six guys in the box against an empty backfield for the Patriots. The Colts lined up with man coverage across the field and no safeties deep. The blitzers came, which forced Logan Mankins to take one of the blitzing linebackers and Matt Light to grab the right defensive tackle. That left Dwight Freeney with a free rush at Brady, which forced an early throw to Brady’s hot read, Wes Welker, who hadn’t turned around yet.
Two plays later, Brady lined up with one linebacker in the A-gap and Danny Woodhead in the backfield. The Colts brought five and Brady wasn’t significantly pressured; he got off a clean throw, but it was thrown slightly behind Deion Branch, which allowed Cornelius Brown to knock the ball away. Branch suggested that there was pass interference committed on the play, but there was no such call.
Brady’s final throw came with 2:38 left; on third-and-7, the Colts lined up with three down linemen and two linebackers in a “mug” look, while the Patriots went with a Trips Bunch left alignment that had Wes Welker, Julian Edelman, and Aaron Hernandez in a group and Woodhead in the backfield. The Colts only brought four and Brady had a perfect pocket; he just missed his window to Welker. The throw itself seemed like something was off; even if Hagler hadn’t been there, it would have been well behind both Welker and the defender that was trailing him.