Getting a Feel for the Patriots Draft Positions

I’ll unleash my only Patriots mock draft of the spring this Thursday and in preparation for it I’ve been running dozens of mock drafts on FanSpeak’s mock draft generator. Some interesting trends have started to emerge, and it also forces me to go back and consider guys that I left off my initial Top-50 Big Board.

Here’s what we can say about the Patriots’ draft — their four picks at the end of the second and third rounds are vital. I find myself constantly looking at some combination of these four positions – offensive tackle, defensive tackle, running back and wide receiver. Then there’s a huge gap of 100 picks that takes us all the way to the bottom of the sixth round with generally no exciting names left on the board.

Even combining the two early 6th rounders (196 & 204) doesn’t get the Pats up to the fifth round very far, which leads me to think that one of those first four picks will have to traded away to give them a fourth-round pick, and hopefully add a pick in 2017 as well.

Which pick gets dealt is likely related to how the board falls, but while I used to think the Pats could even trade up in the second round, I’m finding that less and less likely because 60 and 61 are a great spot to find the value that falls through the cracks.

With such big gaps in this board, it’s extremely difficult to predict how things will unfold. The big gaps in this draft are 59 picks, 100 picks, then finally 22 picks.

Positionally I was intrigued by this note from Mike Reiss over the weekend:

What the Patriots are valuing from a traits standpoint at defensive tackle could be changing. That is how one member of the Patriots front office described Friday’s decision to waive one-time starter Chris Jones, which came two days after jettisoning Easley. Both Jones and Easley fit best in a more traditional 4-3, and the Patriots seem poised to phase out 3-technique tackles on their roster while focusing more on bigger, stouter tackles.

Notice that this doesn’t necessarily signal a scheme change, just that the Pats are okay using a third defensive end in the designated pass rusher spot instead of specifically have an upfield defensive tackle who would likely only contribute in sub-packages. Sub is still 75 percent of the snaps so it’s hard to say a defensive tackle like that is truly a niche role, but you can understand the thinking the Pats might have.

As I’ve said thousands of times over the past four years, saying the defense is going back to a 3-4 doesn’t really make sense. The game is different now than when the Patriots could play the 3-4 for an entire game, rarely bringing on an extra defensive back, like they did in the 2000’s. I first said it around 2011, nickel is base now. The 3-4 is Belichick’s teaching defense. They will always have the 3-4 for specific run-stopping situations, but you’re talking at most about maybe 15-20 percent of the snaps in a game they might play the 4-3, and overall they were in regular (four DB) defense less than 25 percent in all of 2015.

The scheme now is essentially two big defensive tackles doing the job that two defensive ends and a nose tackle used to do in the 3-4 — eat space and allow the linebackers and hybrid edge players to make plays. So really, it’s more of a 2-5 now that they play anyway.

How will this affect the draft is most interesting to me because there are plenty of interesting 3-technique players who aren’t ideal space eaters that guys like Branch, Brown and Knighton are. A guy like Sheldon Day of Notre Dame intrigues me because he’s no a pure one-gapper though he’s built like one. That’s the kind of guy that will be available when the Pats are selecting.

I still think there’s an argument to be made that you need a versatile corps of interior defenders and someone like Day could certainly be helpful to give the Pats defense a different twist. But if they are set on sticking with nose tackles and former 5-techniques inside, someone like Austin Johnson of Penn State could fit the bill if he falls to the late-second. But again, how many of those 6’5″, 315-plus guys can you really use?

Ideally I think you have to go OT and DT with the first two picks. Those are the most important positions in football, where the battle is won. Running back, wide receiver and cornerback are certainly needs, but I’m finding not much difference in talent between the 2nd, 3rd and even fourth round with those positions. But the dropoff at offensive tackle and defensive tackle, especially looking for specific skills sets (i.e. athleticism at tackle and size at defensive tackle), falls off a cliff pretty quickly after the second round. Both are deep classes, but at important positions so I expect an early run on both.

And again, I don’t even know how big a need defensive tackle truly is for 2016. If they were trying to replace Easley I’d say go grab someone like Day. If they want to stick with Brown, Branch, Knighton-types, they aren’t in dire straits for another guy that size to come in and play significant minutes. So defensive tackle and cornerback (which is a similar long-term insurance/depth need) could really wait until the middle rounds.