How the 2016 Gronk-less Pats Stack Up to 2012 & 2013

The news of Rob Gronkowski’s third trip to season-ending Injured Reserve has caused quite a stir within Patriot Nation, and to a lesser extent the entire league. While the news has elicited some experts to declare the AFC suddenly wide open, other analysts have gone the opposite direction, choosing to not sound the alarm quite yet, keeping faith in the greatest quarterback-coach tandem in the NFL’s history to overcome the loss of arguable their most important player (save for TB12).

The Patriots win-loss record without Gronkowski is not great; they are just 14-5 without him in the regular season, and 1-2 in the postseason, which certainly supports the belief that the Patriots cannot win the Super Bowl without Gronkowski. Adding to this narrative is Brady’s statistics with and without the prolific tight end. With a healthy Gronkowski, Brady’s completion percentage is 65.3%, with a 7.9 yards per attempt average and a 103.5 passer rating. However, with Gronkowski sidelined, Brady’s completion percentage dips to 57.3%, while averaging just 6.5 yards per attempt.

The most alarming measure is his passer rating; it dips over twenty points to just 82.4, which would rank 34th in the NFL this season, behind fellow Patriot quarterback Jacoby Brissett (83.9) and only one spot above Geno Smith. Effectively, Tom Brady turns into a third-string quarterback when Gronkowski is unable to play.

While there are too many other variables at play that affect these statistics to take them at face value (i.e the strength of schedule faced with and without Gronkowski, injuries to other players on the offense at the same time as Gronkowski’s injury, and other factors like and home vs. away games), they do show a startling trend for Brady and the Patriots offense. However, it is important to consider the Patriots offense’s ability to overcome Gronkowski’s loss this year opposed to years prior when he missed significant time, particularly 2012 and 2013, the two years in which Gronkowski missed part or all of the playoffs due to injury.

Perhaps coincidentally, the Patriots suffered brutal losses in the AFC Championship Game both of those years in games in which Gronk’s presence could have swung the game in the Patriots favor. The rushing attacks, receiving cores, and offensive lines have changed greatly from year to year, with the sole constant between these three seasons being, of course, Brady.

Rushing Stats 

2016 rushing stats (projected):

• 1,876 yards on 464 carries (4.0 yards per carry, and 117.3 yards per game on the

ground)

• Leading rusher: LeGarrette Blount; 1,277 yards on 309 carries

2013 rushing stats:

• 2065 yards on 470 attempts (4.4 yards per carry, and 129.1 yards per game on the ground)
• Leading rusher(s): Steven Ridley; 773 yards on 178 carries, and LeGarrette Blount; 772 yards on 153 carries

2012 rushing stats:

• 2184 yards on 523 carries (4.2 yards per carry, and 136.5 yards per game on the ground)
• Leading rusher: Steven Ridley; 1263 yards on 290 carries

As you can see, this version of the rushing attack is on pace to be the worst, statistically, of the three in every category. The one area in which 2016 appears to trump 2012 and 2013 is the leading rusher’s yardage total; 2016 Blount is on pace to rush for 1,277 yards, which would top Steven Ridley’s production from both 2012 and 2013. While this years rushing attack does appear to have a level of versatility that those years lacked, the statistics tell another story. 2012 featured the trio of Steven Ridley, who rushed for 1,263 yards, Danny Woodhead, who caught 40 balls for 446 yards and added 301 yards on the ground on 76 carries, and Shane Vereen, who also played a big role in the running game, rushing for 251 yards on 62 carries in his sophomore season. This season, Blount is 5th in the NFL with 957 yards, and James White is on pace for 524 yards on 62 catches while adding 172 yards on the ground on 41 carries. Obviously, it is tough to predict the impact Dion Lewis will have, but the 2012 running back stable had very similar output compared to this group. On paper, this group has more pure talent, but their impact on the offense was nearly the same quantifiably.

Receiving Stats 

2016 season (projected)

• Julian Edelman: 1,044 yards on 106 catches*
• Martellus Bennett: 724 yards on 60 catches
• Chris Hogan: 724 yards on 38 catches*
• James White: 582 yards on 38 catches*

• = projected total using only games Brady has played

2013 season:

• Julian Edelman: 1,056 yards on 105 catches
• Danny Amendola: 633 yards on 54 catches
• Aaron Dobson: 519 yards on 37 catches
• Kenbrell Thompkins: 466 yards on 32 catches

2012 season:

• Wes Welker: 1354 yards on 118 catches
• Brandon Lloyd: 911 yards on 74 catches
• Aaron Hernandez: 483 yards on 51 catches
• Danny Woodhead: 446 yards on 40 catches

In terms of yardage, this team probably has the most balance and depth in terms of targets at Brady’s disposal. This 2016 offense lacks the true #2 receiver that 2012 had in Brandon Lloyd, but makes up for it with the aforementioned depth; four players on this years team are on pace for over 550 yards, compared to only two players over 550 in 2012 and 2013. One important thing to look is the presence of a formidable tight end that could potentially fill some of the void Gronkowski leaves.

Initially, I had believed that this was the first time the Patriots actually had a capable backup tight end to step up in Gronkowski’s absence, but it seems I had conveniently forgotten about Aaron Hernandez (I wonder why?). While his production doesn’t seem nearly as good as Bennett’s projects to be this year (483 yards on 51 catches for Hernandez opposed to Bennett’s projected 724 yards and 60 catches), Hernandez did miss six games that year. Had he played all 16 games, he was on pace to total 772 yards on 81 catches, which ends up actually being greater than the production Bennett is on pace for this season. So even with a 1,000 yard receiver in Welker, a solid #2 receiver in Lloyd, and a tremendous backup tight end to fill Gronkowski’s role, the Patriots still only managed to put up 13 points in a loss at home in the AFC Championship Game.

The final factor to consider is the play of the offensive line in these years, because after all, we certainly have seen in the past how a abysmal line can derail even the best of offenses.

Offensive Line Metrics

2016 offensive line:

• Sacks allowed: 20 (on pace to allow 27)
• Adjusted Sack Rate: 5.4% (14th in NFL)
• Adjusted Line Yards: 3.94 (15th in NFL)

2013 offensive line:

• Sacks allowed: 40
• Adjusted Sack Rate: 6.1% (6th-best)
• Adjusted Line Yards: 4.63 (1st)

2012 offensive line:

• Sacks allowed: 27
• Adjusted Sack Rate: 4.5% (5th-best)
• Adjusted Line Yards: 4.45 yards (3rd-best)

• Adjusted Sack Rate = a metric created by Football Outsiders which gives sacks allowed per pass attempt, adjusting for down, distance, and opponent
• Adjusted Line Yards = another metric created by Football Outsiders which takes all running back carries assigns responsibility to the offensive line based on the success of the run, adjusting for down, distance, and opponent (learn more about these metrics here)

Once again, it’s not as if there is a marked improvement in this area; in fact, the Patriots have only regressed since 2012 and 2013. And the offensive line was certainly not at fault in the two playoff losses without Gronk; in 2012 against Baltimore, the offensive did not surrender a single sack against, and while they did allow two sacks in 2013 against Denver, they only surrendered three other QB hits.

In short, while this offense gives the appearance of being better equipped to handle the loss of Gronkowski, the statistics tell a different story. The 2016 version of the rushing attack is the worst iteration out of the three years, and while the receiving core is arguably the deepest group since the prolific 2007 team, the 2012 group bears too similar a resemblance to say this offense is deep enough weapons-wise to overcome Gronk’s loss. And the 2016 version of the offensive line is probably the worst out of the three, making it appear that it is no sure thing that the Patriots can win the AFC. Remember, the Patriots playoff record without Gronkowski is just 1-2, including two losses in the AFC Championship Game. While I still believe the Patriots are the odds-on favorite to win the AFC, a potential matchup with any one of the trio of AFC West contenders is a lot scarier now than with a healthy Gronkowski. I hope that, despite the stats, the 2016 Patriots offense can overcome his loss and continue to thrive on its way to the team’s seventh Super Bowl appearance.