It’s Finally Time for Some Pats Stats

As a rule, I try to hold off jumping into any kind of season stats as long as I possibly can. It’s too easy to overreact to a small sample size. Sometimes those early season blips become trends, both good and bad. Other times they don’t. So you just sit back for September and then in October check in to see if the numbers back up what you think you’re seeing.

Now, with a five-game sample size, it’s finally time to dip my toe into the waters of statistics regarding the 2018 Patriots. Would the results back up what I think about this offense and defense? How do the weaknesses and strengths stack up historically? It’s always fun when it comes down to finally start tallying.

There are a collection of stats that I rely on — POINTS, TURNOVERS, THIRD DOWN and RED ZONE. I also have my own Bend Don’t Break index that measures yardage- and plays-per-drive against points- and turnovers-per-drive. Altogether I feel like these stats give me the best sense of how good a team is and I’ve got them all going back to 2001, so they also provide a historical perspective.

Let’s dive in!

The Good

Despite ugly losses in Jacksonville and Detroit, the Patriots defense has been very solid this season. The last two games have featured some of their best stretches in a long time. There’s always plenty to complain about with a defense in today’s NFL, but as far as Patriots’ defenses come my stat-free feeling was that this was actually a very solid group.

The stats very much backed this up, especially as far as the Bend Don’t Break index for the defense went where they are both bending and breaking less.

The 2018 Patriots defense is giving up far fewer yards-per-drive, shooting from 32nd in 2017 to 7th. The plays-per-drive have improved as well.  A slight uptick in the points-per-drive has only dropped them to 10th in the league from 6th. But most promising is that their turnovers have rebounded from three bad seasons. That’s a great sign.

Offensively, the slight downtick in points-per-game, 26.6, more than a full point below the average since 2001, 27.8, has only dropped them to being tied for 9th in the NFL. They’re finishing drives in the red zone at their best rate in five years. No, there is only one area that causes concern and it’s on both sides of the ball…

• Offensive Points: 26.6 – t-9th
• Defensive Points: 21.6 – 9th
• Third Down Offense: 41.7 percent – 19th
• Third Down Defense: 44.6 percent – 26th
• Red Zone Offense: 68.8 – 6th
• Red Zone Defense: 52.9 percent – 14th
• Turnover Differential: +1 (10 takeaways, 9 giveaways)

The Bad

THIRD DOWN! That’s really the core of the Patriots problems on both sides of the ball.

The defense is at their worst rate since 2011, the second of two years where the Patriots defense was lit up for more passing yards than anyone. Not having Trey Flowers and Patrick Chung played a factor in their current low number, it should improve, but getting off the field seems to be all that this defense isn’t doing well right now.

Hopefully, Derek Rivers can progress behind the scenes. Adrian Clayborn should only get better as the games get bigger. He was great last week against the Colts. John Simon is essentially backing up Kyle Van Noy now so he should only be called on if one of the LBs goes down (Hoodie forbid).

Offensively, the numbers are also a bit skewed by the lack of Julian Edelman, but this is a stark reminder of how much he means to the offense and how the Pats didn’t really have anyone step up on third down in his absence. Hopefully, Edelman has a full season in him, if he doesn’t the Pats will be in big trouble. In the long term, it must be a priority to find at least one more reliable slot receiver.

The nine turnovers, tied for fifth in the league is also a bit concerning, but many of those came from tipped balls and miscommunications with receivers. The Pats should be due for a good run of being safe with the ball.

As Edelman reassimilates and Josh Gordon continues to make strides the Pats offense should start to shoot back up to the top of the stat boards. It’s still a well-balanced offense that is hard to stop — DVOA: Offense (overall: 5th, run: 7th, pass: 9th) and off to a strong start with no major alarm bells.

Third down is a critical element for a defense and if there’s a potentially fatal flaw that could be it. But this has all the makings of a solid defense, the bigger question is will their playmakers make plays in the biggest moments because overall this Patriots edition is once again primed to be playing in those big moments.