Belichick’s sample size is pretty enormous now that he’s heading into his 16th season in New England, so yeah, you can pick out plenty of hits and misses, but it’s important to remember the draft is really a crapshoot. There’s no team out there that is nailing every pick.
BB’s style has always been to maximize the value of each and every pick, especially when it was more cost effective to be in the second round than the late-first.
Some important points to remember – Belichick has TWO top ten draft selections (Seymour and Mayo), otherwise he’s pretty much always been in the mid-to-late 20s. It’s hard to find studs that low in the draft. Usually a first round only has 15-18 actual first round talents in it.
Second, look at the success he’s had with undrafted players who come in and contribute. Those players don’t show up in draft results but they’re just as much a part of the process as those who are selected. Stephen Neal, Malcolm Butler, Dane Fletcher are just a few that jump to mind, but it seems like every single year an undrafted rookie not only makes the team, but contributes.
Third, the drafting and developing of WRs hasn’t been great, but I don’t think the offense has struggled much because of it. Maybe they’ve never been able to get one of those generational talents that are drafted in the top 10, but their offense is still always in the top 10.
The draft is one part of the team-building process and it’s an important one. What’s most important to remember though is that rarely has a coach/GM had a chance to rebuild an entire team from scratch multiple times. Few have ever had the longevity to get that opportunity.
Think about the normal cycle. Veteran offense/defense peaks, team makes Super Bowl contention, players age, team loses players, team falls out of contention, coach is fired, new regime gets high round draft picks and begin the rebuild process again.
Compare that to Belichick’s cycle and you get more perspective on how different and impressive his run has been. The team has never dipped much at all despite total turnover outside of his quarterback.