I’m trying to keep a focus on the Atlanta Falcons and the Super Bowl the next two weeks, but it’s hard to ignore the offseason that will start immediately after the Patriots win or lose in Houston. Most of all, I’m wondering about the defense, where there are multiple starters that are due to hit free agency, in no particular order:
Things were even more complicated at the end of last season, when we thought Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins would be in that group as well. Just because the numbers have been thinned doesn’t make it any less complicated. In fact, the last month or so of the season has really turned my priority list upside down, wondering where the Patriots can and should find the best deals.
I’ve always agreed with the theory that you build a football team from the inside out, and I’ve felt the Patriots’ money allocations back this up. They’ve never cared to give big money deals to cornerbacks, letting talented players in their prime like Asante Samuel walk, while defensive tackles like Vince Wilfork, defensive ends like Rob Ninkovich and linebackers like Jerod Mayo took priority.
Coming into the season and for much of the 2016 campaign I remained steadfast that Dont’a Hightower was the biggest priority. He’s a linebacker who wears 54 and currently occupies the McGinest/Mayo locker. All those signs point to the Patriots wanting to pass the reigns of defensive leadership to Hightower. But now, I’m not so sure.
Why? I think Hightower will want to get paid. Like “Jamie Collins’ contract is just the starting point” paid and I’m skeptical the Patriots will see it that way. Watching Hightower play just 52 percent of the AFC Championship Game snaps certainly didn’t help Hightower’s cause, even if it was due to injury. Let’s face it, the Patriots aren’t going to give a monster contract to a guy who can’t stay on the field. The fact that the defense still didn’t miss a beat with him playing so sparingly also says something. Statistically, Hightower had the worst year of his career.
I hope I’m wrong. I hope Hightower is a Patriot for life. But right now I think it’s 50/50 at best that he returns, and it might have to be under the Franchise Tag and then we’ll do this whole dance again next offseason.
As I thought about it more, the strength of this defense has really not been their front seven, at least not the pieces that are due for Free Agency outside of one player — Alan Branch. Branch is wrapping up the second year of a $4.3 million deal, and is 32 years old and he’s been their most consistently dominant force up front. Branch is certainly at the old age crossroads, but it’s safe to say he’d be far more affordable on a one-year deal than Hightower would.
Trey Flowers‘ emergence has made Sheard and Long expendable and he’s been right there with Branch as their best front seven player this season. I still love the idea of having four defensive ends who can rotate, but the Patriots’ future doesn’t heavily depend on retaining Sheard and Long. Rob Ninkovich is 32 but the final year of his deal in 2017 is excellent value. They have to think about replacing him sooner than later, but Nink has been his ever-reliable self this season.
Duron Harmon has been a valuable piece, but is ultimately a third safety who plays about 50 percent of the snaps per game. If Tavon Wilson can start in Detroit, Harmon should certainly get the chance to start somewhere. He’s played well, but he’s the kind of player you have to let walk when you’re paying McCourty and Chung what you’re paying them.
This brings me to the main player who is making this all so hard — Logan Ryan. Ryan has had an outstanding year, leading NFL defensive backs with 92 tackles and allowing just 56 receptions. Most seemed resigned to letting Ryan walk going into the season, replacing him with Cyrus Jones in theory, but right now I have serious concerns about losing him.
Of all these young players getting to the end of their first contracts has anyone outplayed Ryan? Has anyone of them meant more to the Patriots’ season? If you want to embody the Patriots defensive strength, it’s Ryan. Steady, consistent tackler and ever-improving. He’s never missed a game in his four years. And he shouldn’t get number one shutdown corner money, so maybe there’s a chance for a middle ground contract. He’s the kind of corner that is most valuable to a team like the Patriots, who know how to put him in position to succeed. I don’t know if he’d have that much success elsewhere.
While Malcolm Butler is a restricted free agent who is easily kept this offseason, what happens if he wants to be paid like the top corner that he is next offseason? I’m not sure the Patriots would pay that, and if Ryan walks now, both of these young promising starters could be gone in a little over a year.
Maybe the Pats don’t care. Maybe they’ll continue to value the front seven over defensive backs (outside of McCourty of course), but as we head into another Super Bowl it’s time to give Logan Ryan some credit and to make the case that he should be the biggest long-term contract priority this offseason.
He’ll certainly have a chance to earn it even more next Sunday in Houston, against the best passing offense the Patriots have played all season. His performance in Super Bowl 51 will likely play a huge role in his future with New England or someone else.
The values of the mercurial Belichick are of the tangible sort . While Mr. Belichick may explore the ranges of expression during his moments of applied amiability , his skills are safe from father times trusty grip . While others , whose comparative measure is starting to realize an actual focus , enjoy hiccoughing into the victrola the standard pleasantries of fashion , Mr. Belichick is off to the races . Taking simplicity as a commitment the fashionable effervescent minds commanding the theatre of fool proof , are dazzling in as satisfying a game of three card monte not seen since “Princess Bride” .
Hermes , or Mercury , was a Pagan “Messenger of the Gods” . Amongst his speed and delivery was a gift for deception . Hermes always told you exactly what he was going to do , never exactly when .
Just my opinion !