We’re in the height of the disinformation stage of the NFL draft so I find it amusing that first we get this doozy from Peter King’s MMQB today:
Someone who knows Bill Belichick well told me the other day his MO for this draft will be like it’s been for many others: Approach a pick like he wants to trade it, wait until there’s a minute left on the clock, and if he doesn’t have a good offer, turn in a name to pick. This person said he thinks this could be the case at number 28, with Mark Ingram on the board. He’ll have Ingram in his back pocket – the Patriots love him – and if they don’t get a good offer from a team moving up (probably moving up for a quarterback), Belichick could say, “Turn in the card for Ingram.”
Then we get Mark Ingram tweeting that he’s about to hop a plane to Boston. So to the uninitiated it would seem like the Patriots are definitely interested in the Alabama running back.
Ingram is yet another one of those guys who produce like crazy in college but don’t have the combine numbers to wow anyone. This is similar to what was said of Emmitt Smith when he was coming out, not to say that Ingram is going to be the next Emmitt. But it definitely looks like Ingram could slide on draft day, and teams who like him might be tempted to hop up and grab him.
Now I don’t doubt that Ingram is on the Patriots draft board but in looking at this situation I’m even more sure that it’s more important to the Patriots draft that other teams know they like him, than how much they do actually like him.
Why? Because Ingram looks like he’ll surely be available at 17, unless the Dolphins actually do what 90% of the mock drafts out there have them doing and take him at 15. If you believe the Pats like him and could take him at 17 it sets a floor for how long Ingram might be available.
What I am sure of is that there are a limited number of prospects that fit value and talent-wise at 17th overall, and I definitely don’t think Ingram is one of them, but sending a message that they’re interested in Ingram and could possibly consider taking him at 17 might be impetus for another team to trade up and take him above the Pats.
The benefit for the Patriots comes when players like Cameron Jordan and JJ Watt, if available, fall another slot, potentially to 17 where they could have a much greater impact for the Pats than Ingram could.
The Patriots should definitely come out of this draft with a new running back for the stable. But the value in the second and third round will be outstanding as there’s a good collection of running backs who fit the Patriots mold, and wouldn’t cost a first round pick to get.
Put it this way, there’s no Patriots news out there, especially from a main stream writer like King, that they don’t want out there. This is an organization that is ALWAYS competing. So when there are leaks like this, assume the reasoning is much more about benefiting the Patriots than it is allowing the outside to know who they do or don’t like.
Though keep your eyes and ears peeled this weekend and early next week. Occasionally that’s where the real information leaks get out. Until then, lean on the side of this being a smokescreen with ulterior motives.