Massey and Thaler have advice for GMs: only suckers trade up. Over those 14 years of drafts, they calculated the outcomes of every possible 2-for-1 trade for a first rounder using the Draft Value Chart, and found “overwhelming evidence that a team would do better in the draft by trading down.” The team that would have traded down would have gained an average of 5.4 man-starts per season, with roughly the same amount of Pro Bowl appearances, at a cheaper cost.
Study: NFL Teams Have No Idea What They’re Doing In The Draft
I love it when a scientific study comes out that validates pretty much everything I’ve written about the draft being a total crapshoot.
So for those who complain about and criticize BB’s drafting, just stop.