I’m not really big on predictions, but barring something huge happening (and I won’t even mention what kind of huge) the Patriots’ season will come down to one final play in the playoffs.
If they make that final play, whether it’s coming from behind or getting that final stop, there’s a good chance they’ll be Super Bowl champs.
That’s how good, and how much of a well-oiled machine Bill Belichick’s team is at this point of his tenure.
The schedule is a difficult one and you must embrace that challenge, because if you spend all season just waiting for the playoffs, there’s a good chance you’re going to miss all the fun football games.
If 2007 taught us anything, it’s how much you must cherish the regular season, even with it’s ups and downs, even with injury attrition, all of it. Then the playoffs roll around, you hold your breath and hope the bounces go your way.
Here’s one blogger’s loose prediction of how 2016 could unfold.
Week 1: at Arizona Cardinals (Sunday Night Football)
LOSS: First games are always fluky, especially on the road. And even more especially when you’re giving a young quarterback his first start there. I really like what the Cardinals have done, especially on defense, with pass rushers and versatile defensive backs galore. Expect a close one that comes down to the end with the Pats offense falling just short against one of the most exciting defenses in the league. Ben Volin writes how Jacoby Brissett should get a look.
Week 2: vs. Miami Dolphins
WIN: Home opener against a Miami team with a new coach? I like the Pats’ chances no matter who’s under center. The Dolphins defensive front has plenty of talent, but their team won’t be quite ready to pull the early season upset in New England. There will be bumps, but Jimmy makes enough plays and the Pats pull it out.
Week 3: vs. Houston Texans (Thursday Night Football)
WIN: I don’t know if the short week will be a good thing or a bad thing for Garoppolo. Being at home helps a lot but the Texans have plenty of good pieces on both sides of the ball. O’Brien and Vrabel know what it takes to beat the Pats in New England. Is Brock Osweiler ready to execute that gameplan? The offensive line gets another stiff test and their play should decide the game. This one could go either way, with the upstart Texans looking for a statement win on multiple levels. I’ll say the Pats O-line holds strong and Jimmy delivers his second win.
Week 4: vs. Buffalo Bills
WIN: The Ryan brothers say they have something in store for Bill Belichick. Oh goody. I love when Rex pushes my buttons, now having Rob there with him only makes it more perfect. I’m fascinated to see if the Ryans play Jimmy the same way they play Brady. Will they rush three and flood the coverage? Jimmy can run. Ultimately I think this one’s for the defense. They shut the Bills down and the offense just does enough to win.
Week 5: at Cleveland Browns
WIN: Guess who’s back and it’s going to be ugly and merciless.
Week 6: vs. Cincinnati Bengals
WIN: Seemed like the Pats and Bengals were on a collision course last year, but an Andy Dalton injury and a total meltdown by their defense in the playoffs derailed that. Yes, the Bengals did beat the Pats in 2013 and they have some really talented players, but I just don’t see them having what it takes to march into New England and win yet. Until they can prove otherwise, they’re headcases who meltdown in the key moments and the Patriots almost never ever lose to those teams. Especially when this is the point the Pats usually start clicking.
Week 7: at Pittsburgh Steelers
LOSS: I don’t like handing the Pats’ losses but this seems like the right time and the right team at the right location. More likely is that the Pats have a flat game in the weeks before this and lose a game they shouldn’t like Buffalo or Houston, but Pittsburgh matches up well and will stress the Pats man coverage with their speedy receivers. But Brady usually seems to carve them up unlike anyone else. Most of football wants the Steelers to beat the Patriots and this should set up a playoff rematch, just hopefully not in Pittsburgh.
Week 8: at Buffalo Bills
WIN: No matter how hard I try I can never pencil in losing to the Bills. And I really enjoy Rex’s gameplans for Brady, they’re one of my favorite chess matches of the year to watch. It will be close, but the Bills will blow it and the Pats are back on track.
Week 9: BYE
Ahhh, rest and relaxtion for the players and a stress-free weekend for the fans. Remember when we stressing about Garoppolo after Week 1? Garoppo-who?
Week 10: vs. Seattle Seahawks (Sunday Night Football)
WIN: One of the most anticipated games of the NFL season, the Super Bowl 49 rematch should be a doozy. Still, I think Belichick knows how to play Russell Wilson and not having to deal with the crowd in Seattle tips this one solidly in New England’s favor. Seattle is a great team and will certainly make their share of plays that make things interesting. But there will be no lucky-ass sideline catch this time around and the Pats win without needing a Butler miracle pick.
Week 11: at San Francisco 49ers
WIN: Tom Brady finally returns to his home city to play against the team he grew up rooting for. Chip Kelly knocked us off last year so we can’t totally dismiss the 49ers but with them in full rebuild you have to think the Pats roll. Brady should be feeling it in this one as should fellow NorCal native Edelman.
Week 12: at New York Jets (Sunday Night Football)
LOSS: The Jets have won two of the last three in overtime against the Patriots in New York and the one loss was by just one point. So the lesson here – these games are always close. Final almost-meaningful Pats stinker of the season.
Week 13: vs. Los Angeles Rams
WIN: The Rams are in for a hellacious season of travel around the country and globe. By this point I think they’ll be ready to throw the towel in and hopefully throw Jared Goff to the Pats’ wolves. They have a lot of talent in specific spots, but they’ll be exhausted here in early December, ready for a SoCal offseason, and the Pats will be ready to throttle them, especially if they’re coming off a loss to the Jets.
Week 14: vs. Baltimore Ravens (Monday Night Football)
WIN: The Ravens just always seem to play us so tough, so expect Joe Flacco will be drawing pass interference calls with underthrown passes left and right. But since it’s at home and the Pats always have a perfect game in them around this time, I think the Pats use this as a message-sending game.
Week 15: at Denver Broncos
WIN: Pretty sure all of New England has this game circled after two mind-boggling losses in Denver last year. Lady luck was just on the Broncos side last year, but now with a new quarterback in Trevor Siemian Monkey, the Broncos are a new team. More than anything, this is a legacy game for Brady and Belichick. They’re 2-6 in Denver, including three playoff losses — 2006, 2013 and 2015. No other stadium in the NFL haunts BB/TB more. This could be the last time the coach and the QB see this stadium. Let’s end it on a high note.
Week 16: vs. New York Jets
WIN: Maybe someday this will be a meaningful game with the division still I question, but this isn’t the year. Pats avenge a loss from just four weeks prior and lock up their playoff position. Sowwy Jets.
Week 17: at Miami Dolphins
LOSS: The backups lose to the Phins and it doesn’t matter at all. At least that’s how we hope it goes (unlike last year).
Final Record: 12-4
Playoffs:
AFC Divisional Round: vs. Oakland Raiders
I think the Raiders are poised to win a playoff game this year, but they won’t win two with their ride ending in New England. With Denver taking a step back this year, the door is open to a couple new playoffs teams this year. Other potential opponents could be Indianapolis or Houston. Any which way, Pats move to their sixth-straight AFCCG.
AFC Championship: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Yes, it’s a 2001-esque ride with the same two opponents standing in our way to get to the Super Bowl. You hope that a potential loss to the Steelers in Pittsburgh earlier this season doesn’t mean the AFC Championship is there too. Let’s face it, the Steelers have a tougher division than the Pats do, hopefully that means an extra loss for them. But on paper, these are the best two teams in the AFC and they deserve to meet in the AFC Championship.
Super Bowl 51: New England Patriots vs. Carolina Panthers
While I think the NFC is much more top-heavy than the AFC, right now I see the Panthers going back to the Super Bowl for the second year in a row. The Pats got a look at them in preseason and I think their defense has the front seven athleticism to deal with Cam Newton after what we saw in the preseason game. But this would be a fantastic matchup as Carolina has the pieces to match up with the Patriots offense as well. Hopefully they lay the same kind of dud they laid in SB50.
But it’s the Patriots, so that means it will have to come down to the last play just like all of ’em do.
And
Patriots win Super Bowl 51!!
Brady/ Belichick Five Rings. Boom!