We’ve already jumped into the draft research with much greater detail and awareness this year than we have in the past three seasons of draft blogging. So as we gain more and more knowledge of the prospects we’ll regroup from time to time with some quick hit thoughts as to how things are shaping up from a Patriots perspective.
On 5-techniques and OLBs in Round One
My biggest impression of this draft is that the Patriots needs stack up extremely well with the players that should be available when they’re slated to pick. This is a great class of 5-technique defensive ends, OLB conversion projects, and tough/versatile O-linemen, otherwise known as the three biggest areas the Pats need an infusion of talent.
Right now, based on value, I’d say that at 17 we’re looking first at the available five techniques like Cameron Jordan, JJ Watt, even Marcel Dareus if he were to fall. Right now I lean toward Jordan because he looks like he’d be a three down lineman for the Pats at RDE, an area of definite need. Big enough to stop the run, he could also shift inside and generate pressure on passing downs. He could essentially take Brandon Deaderick and Myron Pryor out of the equation in one pick.
Watt might be a little bigger, a little better against the run, but he’d probably be off the field on third down at least early on. Even with Watt I still think you’re getting good value, even if it’s not as immediate as it might be with Jordan, who also played in a 3-4 at Cal.
Taking an OLB conversion project at 17 seems a lot more risky to me. While Robert Quinn, Aldon Smith, and Akeen Ayers might be the sexy pass rush pick, there are quite a few 2nd/3rd round guys that have similar potential.
Not to say if BB didn’t think one of them were special that he shouldn’t pounce at 17. But all of them have some question marks; be it off the field, how athletic they are in space, or if they’ll be able to anchor against the run.
If they do go with one of those OLBs at 17 there would still be some decent five-techniques available at 28 or 33 like Cameron Heyward or Mo Wilkerson, but from a value standpoint I lean that DE first is the way to go, but not by much.
Offensive Linemen
As far as tackles go, there are some big, strong prospects who would likely need time to develop. This could be good for the Pats, especially if they re-sign Matt Light and have some time to develop a prospect. That’s one advantage of having a lot of picks, you can select players who might need a little more seasoning before they’ll be ready to play.
The interior linemen look a lot more NFL-ready, and there’s a good collection of guys with that Patriots prerequisite mean streak. When you look at the depth of this years draft, especially early on, the Patriots should have a chance to get a solid offensive linemen in the second round who should project to be a long term answer.
33rd pick will almost absolutely be traded
Prepare yourself now. After Thursday night we’ll have 1-2 new stud draft picks and our choice of any number of talented guys remaining with the #1 overall pick on day two.
Don’t underestimate the value of this pick. All teams will have a chance to reset their board, and there will be no team with more power than the Patriots on Thursday night.
This is why I fully expect them to trade it, because someone will certainly be willing to overpay for it. There’s a big hole between the 33rd pick and the 60th picks the Patriots currently have. The 33rd could fetch a 2011 pick in the late 30s or 40s, as well as a high (perhaps even first round) pick in 2012.
If the Pats are able to get two quality impact players on day one, they might not mind moving down a bit from 33, while adding yet another future high draft pick. Of course there could be a prime target still available after day one and BB could just choose to make the pick. But I highly doubt it.
Could they really take another cornerback?
With the return of Leigh Bodden it might look like the Pats are well stocked at corner but in my research I’m focusing specifically on guys who can play in the slot. Common sense might project Kyle Arrington over Jonathan Wilhite at nickel, but I don’t think it’s a given that he’s a perfect fit inside though he has the physicality and quickness needed.
Wilhite was better in 2010 but he still hasn’t proven he’s an impact slot defender. So if the Patriots do draft a corner it would likely be someone who is good on the line, able to fight through blocks, especially quick, and has some blitzing potential.
If a corner could project to a ball hawking free safety who could replace Brandon Meriweather and James Sanders in 2012, he could also be considered. Especially in a year that is really weak for safeties. A player like Prince Amukamara is versatile and could be a player in that mold.
Conclusion
While it’s easy to get overwhelmed wondering what the Patriots will do, the undeniable fact is that they look primed to improve at multiple positions of need. And it won’t be done by overspending on aging free agents, it will be done by hand picking young players who will be long-term bricks in the foundation of another dynasty.