The Patriots are set to take on the Colts for the right to represent the AFC in Super Bowl 49. The conference championships are my favorite games of the season, and with the Pats hosting their third in four years, it doesn’t get much better than this.
The Super Bowl is the big game of course, but its neutral site and over-the-top production give it almost more of an exhibition game feel. These two games on Sunday, with homefield advantage and the elements in full effect, are the two best games of real football in the NFL season.
By now, we’ve heard plenty about how the Patriots have manhandled Andrew Luck in his three games against them, including last year’s AFC Divisional game. In those three games, Luck has six touchdowns and eight interceptions, with a 53.8 completion percentage.
Can New England continue their recent dominance over Luck and the Colts? Or does Indy finally turn the tide? With a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, the stakes don’t get much higher.
Here’s my game plan for the Pats to get back to their sixth Super Bowl in the last 14 seasons.
Offensive Game Plan
In the last three games agains the Colts, the Patriots have put up 595 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns. This includes 201 yards and four touchdowns by Jonas Gray earlier this season and 166 yards and four touchdowns by LeGarrette Blount in last year’s divisional round.
What does this add up to? Until the Colts prove they can stop the run, there’s no reason not to come out pounding the rock at them once again, even if they’ve been much better against it since the Pats last saw them.
The return of Arthur Jones, Chandler’s big brother, should help the run-stopping effort, but it’s still worth testing early on.
With rainy conditions possible, this will put a huge priority on ball security. So it was no surprise to see Bill Belichick stressing this point earlier this week in practice. Nothing can shift a game quicker than turnovers.
And what if the Colts defense shows up with something to prove against the run, as they probably should? The focus shifts to the passing game where Rob Gronkowski (208 yards on 11 catches, 3 TDs) and Julian Edelman (192 yards on 16 catches and 1 TD) have also been very good against the Colts in the last three games (only two for Gronk, and two and change for Edelman after he last lost after bruising his thigh in Week 11).
The Colts mimicked the Seahawks defensive game plan against the Broncos last week, taking away the medium throws, forcing short passes, which they’d come down hard on, or long throws.
This has been an effective game plan against the Patriots offense in recent years, however the presence of Bradon LaFell and a healthy Gronk no longer makes it ideal. Tom Brady also won’t miss as many throws as Peyton Manning did last week. So the Colts have to pick their poison, and once they do, it’s up to the Pats to force the other down their throat.
The Colts were also the 31st ranked team in Football Outsiders’ DVOA when it came to covering running backs, so perhaps a surprise wrinkle will be some Shane Vereen-centric passing plays.
Defensive Game Plan
The Patriots were defensively dominant over the Colts earlier this season. Can they do it again, or was that just one of those games where one team was just on fire. I’d expect things to be a bit more balanced this time around.
Holding the Colts to just 19 rushing yards in the first meeting was an impressive effort, but the Colts have found more consistency in their ground game since with Dan Herron, though they still seems far from explosive. Herron also draws concern for his pass-catching ability. Expect a heavy dose of Dont’a Hightower on him.
Coby Fleener was one guy who had some success last time around, finishing with 7 catches for 144 yards. He saw some of Brandon Browner last time, and perhaps that makes sense again on certain downs, or maybe using Devin McCourty would be better as well. Fellow tight end threat Dwayne Allen left the last contest early, so the presence of two tight ends who can catch should be a concern for the Patriots.
The statistical weak link of the Patriots pass coverage has been against tight ends, and with dominant outside corners, Fleener and Allen should be a significant part of the gameplan. Patrick Chung, Devin McCourty and Jamie Collins should draw a fair amount of coverage responsibility on them.
What’s clear is that taking away T.Y. Hilton’s explosive over-the-top plays is priority one. Last time, Hilton had just 24 yards on three catches. Replicating that kind of performance might be a tall task, but Hilton has to be a major focus. That’s why it’s likely he sees a lot of Darrelle Revis in this one. Revis was on Reggie Wayne a good chunk of last game, but Wayne’s deteriorating skills no longer require that kind of attention.
At some point, Andrew Luck is going to play a perfect game against the Pats. Even last week’s win over the Broncos featured two interceptions. The Pats cannot wait on a Luck mistake to give them the game. But they have a knack for making them happen in the big games, or at least they used to…
Points of Emphasis
1. Run Until They Stop Us: As mentioned above, the Pats have run wild over the Colts the last three games and until they prove they can stop it, why stop? LeGarrette Blount is now in the mix, which takes away some of the worry of relying on Jonas Gray again in a playoff game, where his ball security worries me. Still Blount can take a bit to get going, so Gray, or even Brandon Bolden could see some carries early. Can the offensive line get it done with Josh Kline in there? That’s a question, but would be a bigger concern if this was going to be a pass-heavy gameplan against some great interior guys. The Pats won’t hesitate to shift to a more pass-heavy approach if the Colts front plays inspired against the run. But until they stop it, run it down their throat. There isn’t a simpler game plan in the world than running at a team who can’t stop it. It drains the clock, opens up the play action game and generally demoralizes a defense. There’s no easier route to victory for New England if their ground game is firing on all cylinders.
2. Nickel Run Defense: The Patriots were in sub defense for most of the first matchup and anytime that is the case, stopping the run with only six in the box is key. With Sealver Siliga and Chandler Jones in the mix after missing the last tilt in Indy, the Pats front looks stronger on paper after playing a mix of Dominique Easley and Chris Jones next to Wilfork. If the Pats start getting gashed in nickel they’ll have to move to a heavier front and that will open them up against the pass. There’s little doubt the Pats best personnel is from the nickel defense. The more they can stay in that, the better off they’ll be. Of course, spying Luck on third downs should be another consideration.
3. Hold Onto the Ball: It was shocking and disgusting that the Patriots put the ball on the turf TWICE in the early going last week against the Ravens. That cannot happen this week, especially with a run-heavy approach. Nothing made me happier than to hear Belichick was out on the practice field trying to pry the ball loose himself this week. We saw last week how quickly a bad turnover can shift the scoreboard. Ball protection is huge.
4. Finish: The final score of the previous matchup this year skews things a bit, but it was a 28-20 game in the fourth quarter before the Pats pulled away. The Colts have plenty of recent history of great and seemingly impossible comebacks. This one won’t be over until it’s over and the Pats cannot get overconfident that they’re rolling to another blowout, even if they get a double-digit lead. 60 minutes to get to the Super Bowl. They’ll need their best effort for the entire length of the game.
5. Win: The Patriots are one game from the Super Bowl, a spot they’ve been in, and underperformed in two of the last three seasons. And even the one AFC Championship they did win, they were generally outplayed. It’s time for the Patriots to put together a dominant AFC Championship game of great football. They’re the better team on paper, but they have to prove it on the field. If they play with that kind of chip on their shoulder, there’s no reason why they shouldn’t be headed to Arizona for a shot at ring number four.
