When the Patriots play teams like the Broncos or the Packers, it’s all hype, while games like these against the Chargers are usually a little under-the-radar. There’s no question, the Chargers are a dangerous team, and every time Tom Brady has played in San Diego it’s come down to a (missed) field goal at the end.
I feel like this game will define the 2014 Patriots in many ways.
A win and the team will be back on track after fighting valiantly in the loss to the Packers. They can turn the page to closing their season out with three-straight divisional games, two of which are at home. No more elite quarterbacks. No more unknown foes. Just the three teams they’re most familiar with standing between them and the top seed in the AFC.
But with a loss to the Chargers and the AFC East is in play with the Dolphins coming to town and additionally, there’s a very good chance that Denver will re-take the top overall seed for the playoffs in the AFC.
Not to say that I don’t think this Patriots team could win the AFC Championship in Denver – they have the makeup and talent to win anywhere, but everyone knows how hard the Patriots are to beat at home.
This is a defining game for the 2014 Patriots. Here’s my game plan…
Offensive Gameplan
The Chargers’ defense is similar to the Patriots in that their pressure tends to come from scheme rather than talent. As always, what matters most is making sure Tom Brady is protected. The main focus there is with Dan Connolly, who has been battling an ankle injury and has been terrible the last two weeks (and pretty much the whole season) as you can see from Pro Football Focus’ rankings:
If Connolly’s problems continue, the Patriots are in trouble. Interior pass rush has always been Brady’s Kryptonite and play like that which is graded out above is like inviting Lex Luthor into the Fortress of Solitude with an open door.
Otherwise, the Pats have to realize who they are and what they’re good at. Against the Packers there were too many shots downfield that were way off the target. We’re a dink-and-dunk team, and an unstoppable one at that. Let’s own it.
Involve everyone. Edelman is banged up. Gronk is going to be a major game plan target for the Chargers. It’s time to get the Tim Wrights and Danny Amendolas and Shane Vereens more involved. Brandon LaFell continues to shine, but rounding out the attack around him will take this offense to the next level while giving those gameplanning for the Patriots offense a nightmare of choices.
Defensive Gameplan
The match ups in the secondary seem obvious: Revis on Keenan Allen, Browner on Malcolm Floyd, Arrington/Ryan on Eddie Royal, with Chungs/Collins on Antonio Gates. It’s becoming obvious that the fate of the Patriots this season might just hinge on those doing the covering who are not named Darrelle or Brandon.
This is a copycat league, so you can expect the Chargers to be planning a heavy dose of Royal and Gates no matter who is covering them. Perhaps that means it’s time to shift the man coverage more frequently, to not let Rivers get into a rhythm with any single receiver.
But Brandon Oliver is also the kind of running back who has given the Pats fits in the past. They’ll have to keep an eye on him.
But the coverage won’t really matter if the Pats can exploit the Chargers’ offensive line, the weak link of the team. The Pats pass rush has been average to non-existent in recent weeks and they must start winning the one-on-one matchups if they’re going to keep Rivers from having success.
It seems like Chandler Jones could possibly return, that would be a huge boost. If not, it comes down to four players – Ninkovich, Ayers, Chris Jones and Easley. Those guys must start causing havoc or else the Pats won’t be going very far.
5 Points of Emphasis
1. Pass Rush Re-emergence: After a quarterback, there’s no more important element to a successful NFL team than its pass rush. The challenges of recent weeks have had the Patriots’ pass rush up and down, but the time has come for them to make a statement and the Chargers offensive line is ripe for the taking. Rivers isn’t going to beat anyone with his feet like Luck or Rodgers, so there’s no reason for hesitation. Pin back the ears and go get him.
2. Chung/Arrington/Ryan: These guys better be used to having targets on their backs because it’s going to continue this week. How they do in coverage against Eddie Royal, Brandon Oliver and Antonio Gates might just determine the game. The Chargers know and the Patriots should know it as well.
3. Throw to Score, Run To Win: It’s time for the offense to get back to what they do best – attacking the short zones and picking up yards-after-catch in the first half to get a lead, then giving the rock to Blount/Gray to bleed the clock and seal the game. Of course it begins up front with the offensive line – who aren’t coming off their best game. They should have something to prove and the offense will flourish if they play like they do.
4. 60 Minutes: After a full week together in San Diego without any distractions, the Patriots should be a focused group. But against the never-dead Chargers, they’ll need a full game effort. Coming off a loss, you never expect a team to get over-confident, but they can’t warm up the plane and be too eager to get home even if they have a lead late in the fourth quarter. They must finish.
5. Win: This win would position the Patriots to get to the Super Bowl. It’s just that simple. They know the three teams left to face after this and all three are winnable games. The first step to hosting the AFC Championship is to beat the Chargers. The Patriots must know that is on the line Sunday and play like they know it.