Sunday is a “hat and t-shirt game”, what more is there to say? With the top seed and the AFC East championship on the line, it’s hard to imagine the Patriots won’t be ready to go for this one.
But divisional games are always interesting, because the teams know each other so well. This game is Miami’s season. Plenty of times AFC East opponents have beaten the Belichick-Brady Pats in September on the road, but beating them in December, in Foxboro when we’re down to the nitty gritty of the season, has been near-impossible.
It might be the last shot for this Miami regime.
This is when the Patriots are at their best and nearly unbeatable without a perfect game. Do the Dolphins have a perfect game in them to sweep the season series against the Pats? I’m not so sure.
Here’s the Pats’ gameplan to sew up their 12th AFC East title in the last 14 seasons.
Offensive Game Plan
Miami is the top-ranked team defending passes to tight ends per Football Outsiders’ DVOA. But they haven’t faced the real Gronk yet, so they’ll be put to the test on Sunday. The Patriots want to be a team that can play any kind of a game, and against teams that struggle to stop the run they can be. But let’s be honest with ourselves, the Patriots are best when they’re throwing the ball, with Brady getting it out quickly.
Against the Chargers they tried to stick with their power run game even when it wasn’t working. There’s no need to try that against an even-better Miami defense.
Offensively, the Pats should go pass/spread-heavy early to loosen up the front seven. The trio of Edelman/Gronk/LaFell are deadly once they get going. The sooner that happens the better. Then, if they can establish a lead, they can work in Blount and Gray. I’d like to see more Jonas Gray this week especially, but in the second half.
Defensive Game Plan
Jarvis Landry didn’t have a catch in week one against the Patriots, but has since emerged as Tannehill’s go-to target. While Revis was on Mike Wallace then, it might make sense to shift him to Landry now. The Pats also didn’t have Brandon Browner the first time, so the question is does he matchup on the bigger Charles Clay, or the faster Wallace with over-the-top help? The Past used linebackers and safeties on Clay last time.
The discipline of edge players Ninkovich and Ayers (and maybe Chandler Jones) is essential to keeping Tannehill beat them from the pocket. The Pats will also look to test the interior of Miami’s line with their Double A Gap blitz looks. The Dolphins should be a good test for what has become a staple of the Pats’ defensive game plans.
Five Points of Emphasis
1. Protect Brady: Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, because as I’ve said many times, this could effectively be the only key each week. Give Brady time and there’s a very good chance the Pats win. I’m going back to the well on this one because of the problems Miami’s rushers gave New England the first time around.
Granted, that was still in the experimental portion of the season, when our starting guards were Marcus Cannon and Jordan Devey, but the OL hasn’t exactly been lights out as of late. And a poor performance by Nate Solder or Sebastian Vollmer could swing this game heavily in favor of the Dolphins. There might not be a more intriguing matchup that on the edges of the Patriots defense. But all five of them must have their best game of the season.
2. Say Hello to Our New Run Defense: In the first meeting, the Dolphins ran all over the Patriots, piling up 191 yards on the ground. The Pats certainly had their problems stopping the run early in the season, but over the last couple months they’ve settled down. Throw in the fact that Knowshon Moreno is out for the season and the signs seem clear that Miami won’t be able to rely on their running attack to keep the chains moving like they did the first time around. That puts more pressure on Ryan Tannehill to win the game with his arm.
3. Say Hello to Our Fully-Functional Offense: The Patriots had about as bad of second half as a team can have against the Dolphins in Week 1. Rob Gronkowski played just 38 of 86 snaps. Brandon LaFell had zero catches on six targets. Kenbrell Thompkins was tied with Edelman with nine targets for most on the team. So yeah, this is a much different team now, one that shouldn’t have a second half that looks like this:
4. Spy Tannehill: It seems like quarterbacks who can run have given the Patriots defense their biggest problems this year. Pocket passers like Peyton Manning or Phillip Rivers? No problem. Guys who can move like Aarond Rodgers and even Geno Smith, have been able to extend drives against a Patriots front seven who lose contain or an open running lane. Playing quarterbacks like that require the ultimate discipline, with a delicate balance between pass rushing and maintaining lane integrity. Tannehill cannot be allowed to run for first downs on third down. It sounds simple but this will be a challenge.
5. Win: This will be just the fourth AFC East game of the season for the Pats, yet it’s a chance to win the division. That goes to show how poorly the rest of the AFC East has played outside the division. Everyone’s focusing on catching the Patriots, yet it’s always the outside games that doom the Dolphins/Jets/Bills’ seasons.
The lead in the conference is also just a half game, so there is no margin for error. This is without question the hardest remaining game on the schedule. There’s nothing to hold back for, it’s time for the 2014 Patriots to collect their first championship of the season.