This is the tenth AFC Championship the Patriots have gone to under Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, but for me this one feels different. I’ve touched a lot upon how many things would come full circle for TB/BB with a win this weekend, and maybe that’s why I’ve been grumpy and had trouble sleeping all week.
To send Manning off into the sunset, along with the disappointing previous playoff losses in Denver, would truly be poetic for the Brady/Belichick Dynasty. What else is really hanging over their head? And what better way to possibly end Manning’s career than the way it started in his first AFC Championship in 2003, losing to the Patriots?
The Pats are favored. They’re a totally different team than the one that had a 21-7 lead in the fourth-quarter before Harper’s Muff opened the door for a Brock Osweiler comeback. And the Broncos have some key pieces back as well, but the biggest focus is of course Peyton Manning. He’s torn my heart out far too many times to write him off, no matter how much of a shell of his former self he is.
Most of the Patriots confidence comes from how the two teams looked in the divisional round. The battered Steelers had little trouble moving the ball in Denver and once again it took a late-game turnover to give the Broncos new life. The Patriots looked healthy and formidable. But this is all about one game, where anything can happen on any given play.
There’s plenty to digest in this one, here’s my gameplan.
Offensive Gameplan
Spread ‘em out and light ‘em up. We’re under no false impressions about what makes this offense go: 12/11/87. When those three are in sync the Pats are near-impossible to stop. But that doesn’t mean they’ll be flawlessly clicking for 60 minutes on Sunday and that’s where things get interesting.
When you look at what the Patriots have done in recent history against this Denver defense, it’s hard to think they’ll struggle to move the ball. They’ll have their moments where they sputter, but the biggest key is finishing in the red zone with touchdowns. That’s what got Pittsburgh beat last week.
You wonder if Wade Phillips will juggle some things up, such as putting Talib on Gronk as Greg Bedard suggested. Chris Harris is reportedly a gametime decision and he’s a huge piece to Denver’s secondary. Without him, there will be plenty to attack, especially with Edelman.
But once again the dark horse is James White, who still seems poised for a huge game. I thought that last week as well, and he did chip in a 29 yard catch and run, but had just three targets and one carry.
The scary thing is that it’s all right there for the taking, but the only thing that can stop the Patriots offense is the Patriots. We’ve licked our chops before games like this plenty of times – knowing the defense was there to be had, only to have a fluky early play that changes the course of the game or puts the Patriots on their heels for one reason or another.
So if this game is straightforward, the Pats should in all likelihood win. But if it gets weird – turnovers, strange deflections and bounces (things that have often happened in Denver to the Pats), the Broncos will be sitting and waiting to pounce on any mistake just as they have all season long.
Score early. Score often. And don’t stop scoring until the clock hits zero. If they hit 30 points I don’t think the Broncos can match, but it’s going to take clean and fearless play. That starts with a strong start.
Defensive Gameplan
Hightower and Collins. Those might be the only two guys I care about in this game. If they can suck it up and be effective for 60 minutes, I like the Pats’ chances to shut down the Broncos offense. Or at least hold them under 20 points.
If they’re ineffective or have to leave the game for Jonathan Freeny and Darius Fleming, the door will be wide open for the Broncos to start gashing us.
The defensive game plan isn’t all that different than last week, when the Pats could just focus on the run and the short zones and force the quarterback to hit long passes to have success. The bonus is no one needs to spy Peyton so that puts an extra body in the flat to destroy dump offs and crossers, or blitz. That player is likely Jamie Collins.
It’s strange that this is the exact opposite approach the Pats took against Peyton Manning as recently as last season. Now instead of daring the Broncos to run you’re daring them to pass.
I am okay with the same matchups we saw in pass coverage last time – Ryan on Thomas, Butler on Sanders. I know Ryan has had some struggles against bigger receivers recently, but honestly as long as he doesn’t give up any big gainers to Thomas, the Pats will be okay. He must tackle and not give up the yards-after-catch.
The small but important part are Denver’s third and fourth receivers matching up with Justin Coleman. Coleman was excellent last week against the Chiefs, but a poor performance this week and the Broncos could sneak out a couple big plays that help their cause.
Still I think it’s an eight-man box game, with Chung down low to help snuff out the run game. Having seen the zone blocking scheme once already is a good advantage for the defense, especially rookie Malcom Brown. That might be the only big takeaway from the first matchup.
It’s hard not to think this game will come down to the defense needing a stop as much as every Pats fan would love a stress-free blow out. The Pats got two game-ending interceptions last year on their way to the Super Bowl title and they very well could need one this weekend. But the bigger the lead the bigger the pressure on Peyton Manning to start throwing, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pats race out to double digits to see Brock Osweiler make an appearance.
But again, Hightower and Collins are the key. If they’re in, the Broncos will struggle to run and that is the engine of their offense. But what is of most concern is the defense’s ability to continue to stop the run in the fourth quarter when the Denver air starts to play a factor. By that point there must be a significant lead. Because if there isn’t, and Hightower/Collins are running out of steam or not on the field, the momentum could take a serious turn in the Broncos’ favor.
Playing Peyton is not about fooling him. He’s going to know what you’re trying to do. Now, the Pats can show their hand and make Peyton beat them with hard throws. This is why man defense is so vital against him and why the Pats were trounced in 2013 once Talib went down. Reading zones, throwing to open areas, that’s what Manning can still do. But force him to throw into a tight window, where it will be contested, is the perfect thing for this Denver passing offense.
Five Points of Emphasis
1. Collins and Hightower: They are the Gronk and Edelman of the defense and with the way the matchup is lining up, they might even be the more important duo when it comes to getting a win this weekend. Both are battling injuries, but if they can suck it up for this game they’ll have two weeks to rest. There’s nothing more important than keeping the Broncos’ run game in check. Collins could be a big factor with his pass rush. Think about it, we want Peyton Manning to throw on us!! Strange days.
2. Brady be Brady: If Brady is on in this game it’s hard to see the Patriots losing. Can’t imagine a 3TD, 0 INT performance where the Broncos magically go toe-to-toe with the Pats’ offense. Now how does Brady get off his game traditionally? By getting away from what he does best. That shouldn’t be a problem this week. There’s nothing to overthink. And unless the Broncos have some special new defensive twists, the Pats will move the ball. This is a legacy game for Brady and Belichick and I hope/expect they’ll both be at their best.
3. Offensive Balance: The Steelers had more success on the ground than we expected last week, and it’s vital that the Pats, in their desire to let Brady be Brady, don’t become one-dimensional. If the Pats can get a lead, they must start to shorten the game to strangle the Broncos chances. That’s why a Steven Jackson-led ground attack in the second half is just what we need. Jackson has shown good burst but just hasn’t found the holes just yet. If the Pats are to get to the Super Bowl Jackson will be vital in finishing off Denver.
4. Tackle: A simple fundamental thing the Patriots usually excel at, as demonstrated against the Chiefs last week. Wrap up and tackle the backs and receivers. Don’t give them YAC. Punish them, especially Thomas and Sanders and their mistakes will only compound. Make them earn every yard. Because no one is convinced this Broncos team can win a tight game that isn’t handed to them with a turnover. They’ve lived on the edge all season long and pulled out more than they lost. The more they’re hit, the more they have to earn, the more I see them deflating from the moment.
5. 60 Minutes: This is always a key to a playoff game. We’ve seen far too many Patriots games that don’t go exactly as expected. Ones that come down to the last play and take everything the Pats got. But we know the Patriots never flinch and are incredibly patient. If only their fans could be as well. There have been plenty of fluky moments over the years in Denver… bad bounces, bad calls, bad decisions. The Pats must keep the hammer down regardless and we know they will. We can’t just expect them to show up and be handed the conference championship. They’re going to have to earn every first down and point.
Prediction: Patriots 31, Broncos 17
