These are the games that define your season. The Patriots have had plenty of success at home, against the good and the bad, but on the road, in their recent house of horrors (4th and 2, SB46), against a team that badly wants to beat them to prove they’re “elite”… this is where a good Pats team can prove they’re great.
The last time we saw the Patriots, they were clicking on all cylinders against the Broncos and getting all the bounces. That tends to happen less often on the road.
It’s not surprising that Rodney Harrison said earlier this week that Belichick is treating this like a playoff game. Maybe it doesn’t have the same buzz as Brady vs. Manning, but this game is every bit as big as far as the AFC goes, and it will definitely have an impact on the playoff seedings.
What do the Pats have to do to get out of Lucas Oil Stadium with a win?
Here’s the gameplan.
Offensive Gameplan
The Pats have had an extra week to do some self-reflection so there could be some new wrinkles, or perhaps some expanded roles, for guys who got here late.
While Jonas Grey has shown some decent power, Shane Vereen is essentially the lead back now. Since Stevan Ridley went down, Vereen has played 65 percent of the snaps. With Gronk drawing coverage, things have only been getting easier for Vereen in the passing game. Look for him to be a key contributor.
The Pats’ success with play action has been well-documented this week. For all the talk of the two tight end sets of 2011 and 2012, now the Pats are having success with fullback James Develin and/or Michael Hoomanwanui joining Vereen in the backfield. Simply put, the threat of a fullback/halfback tandem has been enough to put defenses on their toes against the run game and that has helped the passing game. The Patriots have a miserable ground attack, Football Outsiders has them 31st in rushing DVOA.
The Colts should focus on two things – stopping Rob Gronkowski and pass coverage. Force the Pats to beat them running the ball or squeezing it in tight windows to someone other than their dominant tight end.
Will the Pat take the cheese and run the ball? This could be a game that tells us a lot about their balance on offense. But it’s a passing league and in a dome the conditions are perfect, so look for this to be a Vereen/Edelman/LaFell heavy attack.
Defensive Gameplan
The bye week was much-needed for the Patriots defense because it gives in-season newcomers likes Akeem Ayers, Jonathan Casillas and Casey Walker a little extra time to get up to speed.
The Pats had Ayers in a full-time edge role against the Broncos and I can’t see why that would change now, the only other option is to play the injured Dominique Easley out of position.
Jamie Collins had a breakout game against the Colts last year in the playoffs and there’s every reason to think he’ll once again be a big key. Despite some knocks on him in the run game early this season, he’s looked better recently, likely due to his thigh getting fully healthy. Collins was drafted for games like these.
As always the big question is how the Pats deal with explosive deep threat T.Y. Hilton, old nemesis Reggie Wayne and the Colts’ strong duo of tight ends, Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen. There’s little question that Hilton will get over-the-top focus, so is it worth using Revis on him? Perhaps letting Browner kill him at the line, while putting Revis on Wayne is a better use of resources.
Patrick Chung, Dont’a Hightower and Collins will have their work cut out for them, not just with the tight ends, but with resurgent running back Ahmad Bradshaw, who has over 700 all-purpose yards and eight touchdowns this season.
Disguise, and forcing Andrew Luck into the kind of mistakes he’s made in his first two games against the Pats are key, but those games were in Foxborough and Luck cannot be counted on to hand the game over in Indy.
This one will take a total defensive effort just like the Broncos game did. Do the Pats have another one of those in them, this time on the road?
It’s a great test.
5 Points of Emphasis
1. Keep the Gronk Times Rolling: The Colts are 29th in DVOA covering tight ends so that’s an area to attack. However I believe the Colts will give extra attention to Gronkowski, even if it comes at the expense of weakening their defense elsewhere. Still, it doesn’t really matter. Gronk makes plays no matter how many guys are on him and there’s no reason to shy away from him now.
2. Stop Bradshaw In Sub: I could probably write the same keys every week for the Patriots – stop the run in sub-defense and protect Tom Brady. The matchups at wide receiver versus the Pats’ secondary are favorable, but it’s Ahmad Bradshaw who could ruin the game. The defensive tackles and ends must build the wall and contain him, while the linebackers must stick with him in pass coverage. Even giving up a bomb or two to Hilton is preferable to letting Bradshaw put up 150 yards of offense.
3. Fast Start on Offense: I have a feeling this one is going to be a high-scoring affair and the Pats would be well-suited to get some points on the board early. So far, they’ve had really good in-game perseverance this year – bouncing back after slow starts and mistakes in recent weeks, but it would be preferable to avoid the drama of trying to come back on a Colts team that specializes in comebacks.
4. 60 Minutes: Along those same lines, this one is going to come down to the end and no lead is safe against Andrew Luck in Indy. If the Pats snag a lead for the second time in two games, they might be feeling pretty good about themselves and take their foot off the gas. That’s just what the Colts love. The Pats must finish.
5. Win: The Pats lost to the Panthers coming out of their bye last season, looking flat and needing a late comeback that probably should’ve happened. They should be better prepared and more focused against a conference rival this year.
A win would seal the Patriots’ spot atop the AFC, and give them the inside track on a bye, owning a direct tie-breaker over the other two best teams in the conference.
A win over a very good team in a very tough place to play would say even more.