How quickly the dynamics of this game have changed. Instead of another Tom Brady
– Peyton Manning duel we’re getting a defensive battle that could see the over/under remain below 40.
Regardless of who is or isn’t playing, this is an important game in the AFC and if the Pats are without Danny Amendola
, they’re going to have to find a way to move the ball on a very stout defense that has all the pieces necessary to stop them.
But the Patriots’ defense are no slouches either and they should give Brock Osweiler plenty of problems in his second start, even if the Pats are still without Jamie Collins , as expected.
The Patriots have had their struggles in Denver, winning there just once (2011) since Tom Brady lost his first playoff game there in January of 2006.
What do the Pats need to do to get to 11-0 and put a tight grip on the top seed in the conference? Here’s my gameplan…
Offensive Gameplan
The entire offensive gameplan really hinges on Danny Amendola’s availability, and if he can’t go things are going to be a little scary against a defense with as much talent as we’ve faced.
But here’s the thing, in three games since 2007 Brady has thrown for 1028 yards, 12 touchdowns and 0 interceptions against Wade Phillips (’07 HC Cowboys, ‘12 DC Texans (x 2)). And none of those teams were exactly pushovers. So it would seem Brady has a pretty good handle on Phillips’ scheme.
Replicating that kind of execution with Chris Harper as the primary chain mover might be a little tough and that illustrates the bigger problem – the Broncos man coverage. The hardest skill for a wide receiver is beating man coverage before the pass rush gets to the quarterback. Can the Pats’ receivers defeat Talib/Harris? They’re gonna need Amendola.
My gameplan offensively is simple and the big piece is giving James White a chance to start. Don’t run Blount into the teeth of the defense right out of the gate. Spread them out and try to establish the quick man-beating passing game. Don’t completely ignore the run, but let White run some screens and draws before moving to any power game with Blount.
Someone will have to step up this week with or without Amendola. White, Brandon Bolden, Aaron Dobson and LaFell all came through in key spots against the Bills (and Harper would’ve too if not for a Cannon penalty). They’ll need more of those plays from the secondary weapons. If Scott Chandler’s ever going to have a big game, now might be the time.
But really it all feeds into the offensive line. They should be better this week. Phillips won’t run the same kind of deception Rex did (though he would if he was smart), so they should have an easier time picking up the pass rushers. Still, those are some good pass rushers, even without Demarcus Ware, but this week it will be more physical than mental and usually the Pats offensive line are good in games like that.
Defensive Gamplan
It was fun watching a great cornerback like Darrelle Revis last year and Brandon Browner brought great physicality, but this is a better defense this year and I enjoy watching them far more now.
It goes back to the early and mid-2000′s when we knew the Patriots had the baddest defense on the block. On every big moment in the game you just knew someone would come through with a play and more often than not they did.
Now it’s starting to feel the same way. It’s not all about Ninkovich and Chandler Jones. There’s so much talent and depth, and with the rotation they’re able to keep guys fresh. Dominique Easley, Jabaal Sheard and Malcom Brown are causing chaos up front and it’s been so long since the Patriots have had that.
Now Brock Osweiler plays directly into what the Patriots defense does best – get after the quarterback. No longer does Bill Belichick have to rely on disguising coverage as much against a young quarterback. Now he can show it’s man defense and simply challenge the quarterback to get through his reads to find who can get open before the pass rush gets to him. This isn’t easy against the Pats’ front four now.
There’s no question the Broncos have playmakers who can beat man coverage, so the Pats will likely live or die on their pass rush in this one. But they don’t have to worry as much about containing Osweiler, they can just attack. I like that formula.
Though Malcolm Butler covered Emmanuel Sanders last year and did it well, I think he likely goes to Demaryius Thomas now, with Logan Ryan on Sanders (assuming he plays after sitting out last week).
Otherwise, I like the Patriots’ chances of shutting down the run and putting the game in Osweiler’s hands. The Pats are as stout against the run as I can ever remember, and unless they have their first bad game since September, they should give Brady and the offense a chance to win the game no matter how few points they put up.
Five Points of Emphasis
1. WRs Win Quick: Best way to attack man coverage and minimize the impact of your pass protection? Get the ball out quick with your wide receivers winning off the line of scrimmage. This is easier said than done, especially against perhaps the best secondary in the NFL. But sitting back on long-developing routes, forcing the pass protection to stop the Denver front for extended time, is not the route to victory in this one.
2. Unleash James White: White hasn’t been asked to do much in two games since Dion Lewis went down, but has done well and come through in some big spots in a limited role. Now why not just throw him into the fire? Start the game with him. See what he can do in a bigger role. He has to be confident coming off two touchdowns against the Bills. Now is the time to start making him a bigger part of the offense, a part they’re really going to need in January.
3. Unleash the Pass Rush: Just what exactly is the ceiling of this Patriots pass rush with everyone healthy and clicking? We still haven’t seen it and won’t until Jamie Collins is back, but they looked like a really solid NFL defense in recent weeks. I truly believe the defense can (and will likely have to) win this game for the Patriots, even more so than last week against the Bills. Attack Osweiler. Force mistakes. Don’t let them have the time for the deep throws to Thomas and Sanders. That’s the formula. Once they get Collins back, look out.
4. Win First Down: So many of the Patriots offensive struggles against the Bills were because they struggled on first down and usually ended up in third-and-longs. This week they must find a way to consistently get five yards on first down instead of two. Staying on time with the offense will keep Denver from their comfort zone with long yardage third downs.
5. Win: Yes, the Pats could clinch their division this week, but there’s still a lot to work out before the playoff run. What matters most is getting the top seed and a win in Denver would be a huge tie breaker to hold. They very well might have to play this team again, and perhaps next time they’ll have some version of Peyton Manning. It’s far better to know a potential playoff game would be in Foxboro.
Prediction: Patriots 17, Broncos 14
