It’s hard to believe it’s already Week 13 and we’re on the verge of the last quarter of the 2016 season! Each week the playoffs get a little bit closer and hopefully the return of some of our key players who have been lost since the Week Four bye week.
This Patriots offense is now a shell of what it was in those first three weeks when they looked unstoppable. The NFL season is one of attrition and more often than not it’s the healthiest teams that make the biggest pushes to the Super Bowl. But the Pats keep grinding regardless of their personnel losses and this week figures to be maybe their biggest test yet without Rob Gronkowski.
The only silver lining is that there really isn’t anyone for defenses to key on anymore, and there’s no longer anyone for Brady to really lock in on either. The current shape of the team reminds me a lot of the 2001-2004 teams where there weren’t really any “elite” weapons, just guys who got open and made plays on offense, and a defense that was in its prime.
The Eagles season is hanging by a thread. Yes, they’re still within striking distance of the NFC East title, but they’ve lost three in a row and looked listless in their latest loss to the Lions, generating just 227 yards of offense. Meanwhile their defense has given up 951 total yards of offense the last two weeks.
Here’s the gameplan to dispatch the Eagles and get back on track as we hit the three-quarter point of the season…
Offensive Gameplan
Despite getting lit up the last two weeks, the Eagles defense is not as terrible as it would seem and with the Patriots depleted weaponry it’s not a stretch to think moving the ball will be tough for Tom Brady.
It would really help to get Danny Amendola back, and from the sound of it, there seems to be a good chance he’s back. That would leave him, Brandon LaFell and Scott Chandler as the offensive core, with a sprinkling of Keshawn Martin. I think it’s just too soon to expect anything from newcomers Trey Williams (RB) or Damaris Johnson (WR).
The good news is that with Sebastian Vollmer moving to LT it seems like the offensive line is starting to settle in and that’s what it all starts with. If Brady feels comfortable it won’t really matter who he is throwing the ball to. Playing at home I expect the offensive line to really start looking good, but the Eagles’ pass rushers like Connor Barwin (who has always seemed like a perfect Patriots fit to me btw), Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox are talented and can cause problems.
The bad news is losing Gronk really kills what the Pats can do, especially without his blocking. Chandler would seem to be the top fit, but he’s not the blocker Gronk is, so you can’t just slide him into the Y-TE spot and expect him to seal the edge or dominate his man like Gronk could in the running game.
And yes, it’s the running game that has been the biggest significant problem for the 2015 Patriots post-Dion Lewis. So now, if the Pats want to establish the run, they’ll like have to three tackles out there, or Michael Williams at TE if he is back in the lineup. So their intentions will be clear by their personnel and given the struggles with the run game even with Gronk, it’s unlikely it can be a run-heavy attack with Chandler in there.
So this all points me to the direction of leaning toward a spread approach, but again, it’s not like the wide receiver depth is great right now. But if you have Amendola and LaFell that’s a good start, but the real key will be Chandler because the tight end spot is so vital to keep the chains moving.
Perhaps we see James White get thrown into the fire, but at this point I’m no longer holding my breath and would love to at least see Trey Williams thrown into the fire ala Danny Woodhead in 2010 sooner rather than later.
There aren’t a ton of options and this will make the Patriots intentions clear from the start of the game. Still, if the OL protects Brady, they should be okay.
Defensive Gameplan
Dont’a Hightower has been at practice this week with his sprained MCL, wearing a brace, and signs are also pointing to Jamie Collins finally coming back as well this week. If those two guys are back in, we’ll finally have our defense back.
Collins is the gamechanger, not only for what he can do, but what he then allows Hightower to do. Collins is also a huge upgrade on Jonathan Freeny who’s been playing a ton in Collins’ absence. Freeny has been serviceable but is not a dynamic playmaker in any aspect of the game.
With their full complement of pass rushers, except for possibly Dominique Easley who has missed practice this week with an ankle injury, the Patriots should be able to attack the Eagles quarterback and force mistakes. Expect rookie Geneo Grissom to see some time as a third down pass rusher.
Due to the lack of depth at cornerback with Justin Coleman still out with a hand injury, it’s likely the Pats will match up on the Eagles’ wide outs. Butler on Jordan Matthews would make sense to avoid allowing him to matchup on Patrick Chung from the slot on third downs.
With their defense just about fully intact the Patriots should be well-prepared to counter the Eagles no huddle pace. As always, the biggest key is winning the one-on-one matchups up front. Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich and Jabaal Sheard should be ready to make some noise and it can only help by having Jamie Collins back behind them.
Five Points of Emphasis
1. Force Feed Chandler – I’m not convinced Julian Edelman is going to just step back in and be the unstoppable playmaker he was before. Hence if this team is going to make a Super Bowl run they’ll need to develop another weapon to go with LaFell/Amendola, hopefully a fully good-to-go Gronk and whatever Edelman can bring with his foot still not 100% (assuming that he even does come back for the first playoff game). Chandler has to be that guy, and now with Gronk out, Brady and Chandler have no choice but to find some chemistry. They’ve shown flashes of it at times, but Chandler’s drops and the other targets have made it easy for Brady to look away from him. Chandler has the size and talent to be far better than he’s been. It’s now or never.
2. Witness the Power of a Fully Operational Defense – I know Hightower might not play and even if he does he might be a little hobbled, but if he does suit up along with Collins it will be the first time we’ve had them both out there in over a month. Yes, the Pats have plenty of talent, but the combo of Hightower and Collins is transformative and opens up the full bag of tricks the Patriots have on defense. Is this the week we see that peak defense? Maybe. But it’s coming and once they’re all back at full power we’ll see just how far they can take us.
3. Protect Brady – This should always be a key, but without Gronk or Edelman it’s especially true this week. If the offensive line has a bad game the Patriots could very well lose this game. Their run game has been anemic and it’s hard to argue they can suddenly be better this week. Maybe if the game unfolds just right they can get LeGarrette Blount going, but what we can’t expect is them to come out an “establish the run”. So it looks like a heavy throwing game for Brady, and without guys who can get open quick (outside of hopefully Amendola), Brady will need time. It’s up to the pass protection to give it to hime.
4. Find a Gem – Maybe this one is just wishful thinking but the offense really lacked playmakers against the Broncos, leaving the Pats to cobble together a competent performance from guys who can’t make defenders miss in space. I don’t know if Keshawn Martin or the new guys Trey Williams or Damaris Johnson are those kind of guys, but at this point there’s no reason not to throw them into the fire and see what they can do. Probably a long shot wtih Williams and Johnson since they haven’t even been in New England a week, but maybe if the Pats get a bit of a lead, it couldn’t hurt to get the ball in their hands and see if they can break a tackle or two.
5. Win – As always, it’s the most important thing and with a shrunken lead in the AFC the Pats need to get back on track with their 11th win of the season. But it won’t be easy, that’s for sure, especially with the Eagles needing a win to save their season. But if the Pats can put some points on the board early it’s possible the Eagles will roll over. The better thing for the Patriots overall might just be needing a sixty minute effort, something they didn’t turn in against the Broncos. As much as I’d like a stress-free blowout, winning a close contest might be a better building block toward a Super Bowl run. But honestly, just give me a game without a major injury. I’m praying Gronk’s survival last week will turn the tide.
Prediction: Patriots 28, Eagles 13
