The final quarter of the 2015 season begins with the Patriots needing a win to get back on track against a team filled with their former coaches and players in Houston. We’ve seen former Patriot games in the past – Mangini with the Jets, Romeo Crennel with the Browns, Matt Cassel has popped up a couple times as well, along with Thomas Dimitroff and the Falcons, but this is the most fascinating one yet.
Obviously so much of what Bill O’Brien is trying to build with the Texans is influenced directly by Bill Belichick and O’Brien’s time in New England. That message is only reinforced by defensive coordinator RAC, linebackers coach Mike Vrabel and offensive coordinator George Godsey. So in many ways, the Patriots are facing a slightly distorted mirror image of themselves with one major difference at the quarterback position.
Of all Brady’s former backups Hoyer has always been my favorite. Not that he’s the best, but I like the way he competes and I’ve been rooting for him to catch a break for a long time. So it sucks that we’re going to have to destroy him this week but that’s how it goes.
Beyond the similarities and connections, both of these teams really need this game. Houston is on the bubble for the playoffs, while the Patriots are on the bubble for a bye. Neither team has much margin for error left, so if you’re a fan of football this game should be interesting to watch on a number of levels.
Here’s the gameplan for the Pats to break their two-game losing streak at the expense of some old friends.
Offensive Gameplan
When the Giants were looking at how to slow down the Patriots in Super Bowl 42 one game they studied was the Pats 34-17 win over Romeo Crennel’s Browns. Now that score doesn’t look like the Browns had Brady et al figured out, but Moss and Welker combined for just 7 catches for 65 yards.
Obviously things are much different now, but it shows that Romeo Crennel has a good feel for what the Patriots like to do on offense. Has that changed now? Yes, but Crennel has plenty of pieces to give New England problems.
The biggest one is of course JJ Watt who will be playing despite a broken hand. The thought of Watt one-on-one against Marcus Cannon gives me the spins. But they’ll move Watt around as well, and really, any matchup along our offensive line, outside of maybe Vollmer, isn’t ideal. After seeing Fletcher Cox abuse Josh Kline and Shaq Mason especially last week, I’m not feeling great about taking Watt out of the game.
Then there’s old pal Vince Wilfork who must be looking forward to his own interior matchups against two rookies at guard, though I will say that Brian Stork is playing like a maniac right now and should hold up well against Wilfork.
Add in Jadaveon Clowney and the Pats have plenty to worry about with the Texans’ front. The ideal way to take them out of the game, especially if Gronk is out again, is the quick passing game.
That’s always the bread and butter, but the Pats have gotten away from it in recent weeks because guys like LaFell, Chandler and Martin just can’t get open as quickly as Edelman, Lewis and Gronk could.
Teams with dynamic run games have run well on the Texans this year – Buffalo put up 187 yards last week – but let’s not kid ourselves, we haven’t had a dynamic run game since Lewis went down. Blount showed signs of life last week, but the Pats ignored the run in the early third quarter and abandoned it entirely as the Eagles’ lead grew.
So as I see it, let’s finally commit to the James White spread offense with 11 personnel. Use Michael Williams as an extra blocker. LaFell on the outside, Martin and Amendola on the inside, and let Brady go to work with the quick passing game.
Defensive Gameplan
Two big things to watch in this one – whether Dont’a Hightower is back and whether Malcolm Butler gets DeAndre Hopkins.
If Hightower is back we can finally start building the defense back up for the playoffs. He and Collins are devastating together. They’re both good on their own of course, but having them both out there makes them both so much better. We might have to wait another week on Hightower though.
There’s no question, the Texans offense is Hopkins. He has 10 TDs and twice the targets, catches and yards of any other weapon on their roster. We talk about Belichick making teams play left-handed, well that means taking Hopkins out of the game.
But my question is can Butler do it alone, or is Hopkins such a big part of the offense it’s worth putting Harmon over the top of him as well? Hoyer isn’t afraid to take shots to Hopkins and whether or not the Texans get any big plays out of them will define how successful they are on offense.
Another interesting matchup is Cecil Shorts in the slot. I’d assume Logan Ryan gets Nate Washington, but can the Pats continue using Patrick Chung in the slot corner role vs. Shorts? Justin Coleman could be back, or new signee Leonard Johnson could get thrown into the mix as well, but Shorts seems like he’d be a mismatch with Chung, who missed Wednesday practice with a foot injury (he was back Thursday).
Otherwise up front the Pats will do what they do. Malcolm Brown gets better each week and forms a solid interior with Alan Branch. Dominique Easley missed last week’s game but should be good to go this week. Would love to see him start making a consistent impact one of these games. He’s flashed at times, but was largely invisible against the Broncos when he was really needed.
Five Points of Emphasis
1. Take Away Hopkins – This is probably a two-man job with Butler getting him in man coverage and Harmon going over the top. The drop off to Washington, and Shorts is that extreme, and with the way Logan Ryan is playing it’s really Shorts that could be the problem. We’re well-familiar with this result – the Pats take away the star receiver and then some nobody kills them. I don’t think Hoyer/Shorts have that game in them.
2. Help with Watt – Even with one bum hand, the Pats need to find Watt on every snap and make sure there are two guys to block him, especially when it’s Marcus Cannon on the edge. I’d basically make Michael Williams into Watt’s shadow, whether he has to be on the edges or even in the backfield. Watt cannot destroy this game.
3. Aggressive Defense – The Pats aren’t a very aggressive defense, at least in terms of sending blitzers, but I think this is the week to throw the sink at Hoyer. Of course it’s a lot easier if Hightower and Collins are out there, they’re devastating when it comes to the A-gap blitzes. Hoyer struggles most when he feels the pressure coming so forcing him to make the right read for the quick throws should force him into mistakes.
4. Brady Trust the New Guys – I saw quite a few instances of Brady ignoring Chandler or Martin when they were open last week. He needs to stop trying to force things and return to his old strategy of his favorite receiver being the open one. He has to stop forcing things to LaFell to try and get him on track. Lean on Martin and Amendola, and most especially, James White. This offense is best when the 3rd down back is heavily involved, so the more touches for White, the better.
5. Win – The down period for this season is over. It’s time now to start getting healthy and re-establishing our identity on offense and defense. The Texans are not pushovers and they should come out with a fearless gameplan with some unexpected twists that old Pats coaches always seem to break out. Most of all I just want to see a full 60 minute effort out of the 2015 Pats. It seems like they haven’t put one of those together in forever. Hopefully a two-game losing streak has captured everyone’s attention and with the playoffs approaching, now is the time to kick our best football into gear.
Prediction – Patriots 24, Texans 13
