The Patriots need just one win in their final two games to secure the top seed in the AFC so against a Jets team that currently sits outside the playoffs and badly needs a win and help to get in, you might wonder what Bill Belichick’s mindset is – rest the walking wounded, concede a possible loss and focus on sealing up homefield in Miami against a Dolphins team with nothing to play for?
Or play to win regardless of injuries and playoff seeds? If you’ve been following Bill Belichick long enough, it’s a pretty good guess he’ll play to win, but with Devin McCourty and Danny Amendola expected to sit the Pats will be less than full strength once again in 2015. Really, it’s the season’s defining characteristic.
One interesting development is that we will get a look at Steven Jackson this week, possibly the latest and most recognizable in-season name addition Belichick has ever made. If Jackson has five games of any amount of beast mode left in him (after an extended period off), the Pats will have an entire new dimension in the playoffs.
Here’s the gameplan for the Jets, where all that really matters is getting through it healthy. If they have to seal up the conference in Miami so be it.
Offensive Gameplan
Tom Brady led the Pats in carries with four the first time these teams met in October and that will tell you all you need to know about how they viewed the Jets defense – that they had to throw it 54 times.
Now, the Pats will have just Keshawn Martin and Brandon LaFell (and maybe Chris Harper) dressed as receivers in this one. So replicating last game’s attack would be difficult.
Gronk was largely shut down last game by Calvin Pryor, until Pryor went down with an injury. Gronk finished with 11 catches for 108 yards and a touchdown. This week Pryor is back, and without Edelman or Amendola to worry about, there’s a good chance Revis could see Gronk at times as well.
One big element from the first matchup was Brandon LaFell’s first game of the season where he dropped multiple passes. LaFell has had an up and down season, but he’ll need to catch everything thrown his direction in this one.
The conservative approach for this game would be to give Steven Jackson, Brandon Bolden and James White plenty of action. They don’t have the personnel to go light and fast, so they’ll definitely use plenty of heavy sets with Cameron Fleming and Michael Williams on the field.
Then they’ll get Jackson some work and hopefully take some of the pass rush pressure off of Brady. Of course it’s all contingent on actually moving the ball with the run and there’s no guarantee this season that they can get the running game going without loosening up the defense with the quick passing game first.
If they can’t move the ball on the ground the game will come down to Keshawn Martin and how many tough third down catches he can make. The Jets have the resources to take away Gronk and LaFell, so Martin (and James White) will have to come up big for the Pats to put up 20+ points.
Defensive Gameplan
The story of the first meeting was the Jets going 8-of-14 on third down, including conversion on three third-and-10′s. Those kind of conversions are killers, especially when you’re winning the battle on first and second down.
Whether it was because of injury or not, they held Chris Ivory and the Jets run game to just 89 yards rushing. That set up plenty of third and longs but the Pats just couldn’t get off the field and thus, the game was really close.
Last time the Pats double Brandon Marshall and gave Eric Decker to Malcolm Butler. Decker had six catches for 94 yards and five of them came on third down.
Can the Jets get their running game going this time? Malcom Brown and Alan Branch will need their best games as nothing breaks the Patriots defense quicker than when their run defense goes soft.
Then there’s Bilal Powell in the passing game who has emerged as a threat out of the backfield. They might need to put a safety on him, but…
Devin McCourty’s likely absence will impact how well they can double team Brandon Marshall. What if Chung can’t go either? Duron Harmon will be a huge key player and we might see Nate Ebner or Tavon Wilson playing an important in-box role with coverage responsibilities.
Final Analysis
As much as I’d love to put a huge nail in the Jets playoff coffins, I’m really only worried about not sustaining a playoff-run-altering injury. We’re so close, it seems like all the big guns should be ready for January, let’s just get through these last two games and make another run at this thing.