The 2-0 New England Patriots “welcome” the 1-1 Jacksonville Jaguars this Sunday at 1pm EST in the last game before their early bye week. Both teams are coming off impressive wins, with the Jaguars knocking off the Patriots’ divisional rival Miami Dolphins.
The Patriots are 14-point favorites, but you can never get too overconfident in September, when the Pats have lost plenty of ugly games to crappy teams over the years, including 2012′s home loss to the Arizona Cardinals. That would be the Cards only road win of the season.
Still, this Patriots team has been clicking right out of the gate, and while they haven’t been perfect, they are healthy and experienced in all the right spots.
Getting to the bye week with a 3-0 record is all that matters, here’s how the Pats can do it.
Offensive Gameplan
Gus Bradley comes from the Seattle/Pete Carroll system and the similarities both in players and scheme are immediately evident. Bill Belichick has hit on the pure size of the Jags all week and they should present a physical challenge for the Patriots’ offense.
We only need to look back at the Super Bowl gameplan for a sense of how the Patriots might attack Jacksonville, and once again it’s probably not running the ball into the heart of their defense.
Rather, one of the keys to the offensive Super Bowl gameplan (as we saw in Do Your Job) was to make the defense defend the Patriots’ quickness on crossing routes. Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but yes, it means using guys like Edelman and Amendola underneath and utilizing Gronk on the outside to stretch the defense, especially up the seam as well.
Jared Odrick is disruptive up front, while linebackers Paul Posluszny and Telvin Smith make most of the tackles. But if there’s one player to attack it’s old “friend” Sergio Brown, last seen getting thrown out of the club by Gronk in Indy. Sergio is now playing the Earl Thomas free safety role and guess what? Sergio isn’t Earl and no one knows that better than the Patriots.
Defensive Gameplan
Blake Bortles is coming off one of the best games of his career vs. Miami with 273 yards, two touchdowns and, most importantly, no interceptions. Bortles has a stable of big receivers, led by Allen Robinson, one of my favorite Patriots fits coming out in the draft two years ago. Robinson had 155 yards and two touchdowns against the Dolphins in the best game of his career as well.
At 6′3″, 220 Robinson will provide the first size challenge for the Patriots’ cornerbacks, and this is a time where you wish you had someone like Brandon Browner but I digress. Bortles will not hesitate to throw it deep as they had 177 yards deep down the field last weekend. The Patriots struggles against the deep ball over the last five season are well-chronicled, they’ve given up more 20+ passes in that time than anyone else, so expect the Jags to take their shots, ESPECIALLY AGAINST BRADLEY FLETCHER.
TJ Yeldon is a big back who ran well against a very tough Dolphins front, and if there’s one area on defense I’m really not sure about yet it’s the Patriots ability to shut down an opponent’s running game, not that they’ve really made it a point of emphasis yet.
But if I’m the Jags my offensive gameplan is simple: run, run, deep shot. This keeps Tom Brady off the field and will wear down the Patriots’ limited depth at defensive tackle.
So this will be a good game to see how concerned we really should be about the deep ball and the run defense just prior to a week off to address those issues.
Five Points of Emphasis
1. Do what we do on offense: There’s no need to reinvent the wheel this week. The Patriots know how to beat this scheme and it plays into what they do best, they just have to execute. That means making tough catches over the middle and dictating matchups on Gronk and then exploiting them. While it would be reassuring to see LeGarrette Blount get the power running game going, Dion Lewis should be able to replicate what Shane Vereen did against the Seahawks in the Super Bowl. Go fast. Identify the coverage and blow it apart. It’s the Patriots bread and butter.
2. Stop the Run: I asked this question on the podcast Wednesday night: How essential is stopping the run in today’s NFL? Belichick’s evolution to multiple linebacker hybrid packages signals that keeping up with the athleticism on offense is what he really values most. Still, the Patriots have gotten gashed in both games this season, whether by design or not. Stopping the run is about run fits, getting off blocks and making tackles. Those things are often sloppy early in the season, but now is the time to start putting it together. Keep the Jags backs from getting loose, put the pressure on Bortles to win the game with his arm and things should fall into place.
3. Highpoint the Deep Balls: 2014 was a murderer’s row of talented big wide receivers and that’s why Revis and Browner were so important. This year is less so, but the Jags will provide a challenge because our corners are smaller than their receivers across the board. Getting jams in man coverage, or flipping hips and running down the field in zone will be key this week because Bortles is going to take some shots, again, ESPECIALLY AT BRADLEY FLETCHER. McCourty and Harmon will have to be on their games as well. Nothing would make me happier than not allowing any 20+ yard throws.
4. Come Out Fast: We all know the scenario where this game gets ugly for the Pats. They get out to a slow start with a turnover or by allowing a long scoring drive and suddenly the Jags are in the driver’s seat and we’ve got a dogfight. The Pats cannot allow the Jags to be energized by any early positive plays. They must come out, put the hammer down and show them it’s going to be a long day. And then they have to make it a long day with a 60-minute effort because even with an early lead, it will be tempting to sit back and let the Jags back into it.
5. Win (and don’t get injured): Yes the final point of emphasis has always been “win” in these gameplan articles but now I’ve added the injury part because as we’ve seen early this season so much of the NFL season is a battle of attrition. Could there be a letdown after playing such a hyped game in Buffalo? It’s always possible, but returning home for their first Sunday game of the year has to count for something. This is one of those games you want to just check off the list, but the Jags have been knocking on the door of respectability for a long time now under Gus Bradley, and nothing would put them on the map more than back-to-back wins against the Dolphins and Patriots. Especially the Patriots on the road. Belichick seems to have the Pats focused for this one, and getting to 3-0 before a nice bye week would be perfect.
